Panels conducted a poll that was broadcast by the Knesset Channel on Dec 26 2013.
Additionally, Panels released a scenario poll result of a 3.25% threshold.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
33 [31] Likud Beitenu
16 [15] Labor
13 [19] Yesh Atid
13 [12] Bayit Yehudi
11 [06] Meretz
10 [11] Shas
06 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [06] Movement
04 [04] Hadash
03 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
03 [03] Balad
02 [02] Kadima
62 [61] Right-Religious
58 [59] Center-Left-Arab
Panels conducted a scenario poll that was broadcast by the Knesset Channel on Dec 26 2013.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
35 [31] Likud Beitenu
17 [15] Labor
14 [19] Yesh Atid
14 [12] Bayit Yehudi
12 [06] Meretz
11 [11] Shas
07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [06] Movement
04 [04] Hadash (4 is very borderline)
00 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
00 [03] Balad
00 [02] Kadima
67 [61] Right-Religious
53 [59] Center-Left-Arab
Knesset Jeremy Analysis: The old traditional blocks are at 62-58 compared to the 60-60 tie in the Midgam poll. The scenario poll with a 3.25% threshold makes a good case for a Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al & Balad merger. The 3.25% threshold would enforce a 4 seat threshold.
Hadash’s high is 5 seats (last reached in 1988). Ra’am’s high is also 5 seats (1999). Balad has never won more than 3 seats.
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
how does Kadima get 2 seats with a threshold of 3.25%?? And Balad and Ra’am get 3 seats with this threshold??
I assume the first poll is with the current threshold. The second poll is with the new 3.25% threshold.
First poll is with current law in place.
Second poll is labeled “scenario” poll.
The second projection has no real validity because if electoral threshold is raised Arab parties would be presented in coalition and would pass confortably the threshold.
By the way, an error rise the electoral mistake, and one of the reasons its because we will change three small Arab parties to one Arab party, that may be 3rd or 4th political force in Knesset. Big error.
Looking at the 2nd poll:
Raising the threshold strengthens the right because vote leeches like Otzma and Am Shalem (which can easily win one seat but not two) are smothered. No one can seriously believe that those parties could get 3.25% and so the voters will naturally choose parties on the right can win. The right had more “thrown out” votes than the left in the last election by a large margin. It also seems to give Bibi flexibility in coalition building. He can go Likud- Bayit Yehudi-Yesh Atid+ Movement again for 69. Or Likud-Bayit Yehudi-Shas-UTJ for 67. I favor the latter and 67 is solid, but who knows anymore with Deri as the head of Shas?
I think assuming the Arab parties would just naturally gel together into a united party is not necessarily true. Ra’am Ta’al is basically Hamas and Islamist. Balad is basically the PLO and secular. Hadash is a mixed Arab-Jewish Communist Party. Their ideologies and egos are wildly divergent. Otherwise they would have joined together a long time ago. They are all close enough to the threshold to where they will probably think “If we run a competent campaign, we can squeeze in just above the threshold and maintain our party’s independence.” It’s not like the threshold is going up to 5 seats. Becoming an 11 seat bloc instead of a 3-4-4 bloc wouldn’t increase their power or influence one iota. How would it? It wouldn’t make them anymore likely to sit in a coalition. The Knesset basically has 108-110 seats, not 120. How those “10-12 Arab seats” choose to organize is irrelevant because NOBODY is putting them in the government- not Likud, Labor, not Movement, not even Meretz. Some Hadash members would undoubtedly drift towards Meretz if there is a United Arab Party with a religious radical like Sansur at the lead. Plus it is a propaganda coup for Arabs to have two of their three parties not make the threshold in the next election so they can whine to the international community.
Finally, apparently someone has not told the Knesset Channel that Israel Beitenu is running separately from Likud in the next election. That’s pretty much a done deal and might make things interesting.
Let’s say the Arabs parties run separately and none pass the threshold. Can you imagine the world reaction? Will the Supreme Court retroactively declare the law invalid (since they have no respect for the rule of law anyway)? Will the President immediately call new elections with agreement from all parties?
Or will the Arabs suddenly start voting proportional to their numbers?
I don’t see a scenario where the Arab parties don’t merge so it isn’t really that much of an issue.
At least this poll makes a good case for the right to implement the higher threshold (and not only the right but also center-left parties their number of seats increase; only ones loosing are arab parties and other small parties).
Still waiting to see Shas loose seats as it is loosing local representation – even more when Shas hopefully will loose the new elections in Beit Shemesh!