Category: Daily Updates


Final Phase 2 Results (Israel’s Electoral College): Netanyahu 67, Herzog 29, Neither 24

Filed under: Daily Updates, Knesset — 51 Comments
March 23, 2015

President Rivlin conducted “Day 2” of his consultations with the remaining delegations. Kulanu and Yisrael Beitenu nominated Netanyahu. Yesh Atid did not nominate anyone. Meretz chose to nominate Herzog.

It was the kingmaker Moshe Kahlon who endorsed Netanyahu for Phase 2 earlier in the day to bring him to 61 seats. This clinched Netanyahu’s victory and took away the possibility of President Rivlin choosing Herzog or demanding a unity government. The law does not allow the President to intervene if a candidate recieves a majority. Yesh Atid decided to keep their Phase 3 options open by not nominating Herzog for Phase 2, despite promising they would nominate Herzog before the elections.

President Rivlin will formally ask Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to form his fourth government when the official results are released tomorrow or on Wedensday. Netanyahu has already started holding talks with his potential coalition partners today. It is possible that coalition negotations will go on for several weeks. The next Knesset will be sworn in next week on Tuesday March 31st. Phase 3 will be conducted after Netanyahu signs enough coalition deals to produce a majority of at least 61 MKs to approve his fourth government in Knesset.

The final tally of Phase 2, Israel’s electoral college:

Netanyahu 67 (Likud, Bayit Yehudi, Shas, UTJ, Kulanu and Yisrael Beitenu), Herzog 29 (Zionist Union, Meretz), Neither 24 (The Joint List, Yesh Atid).

My 2 cents: I’ll note that before the election I predicted a Phase 2 coalition of 66 seats for Prime Minister Netanyahu that included the above lists and many of my loyal readers disagreed with me. 🙂

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Following Day 1 of Phase 2: Netanyahu 51, Herzog 24, Neither 13

Filed under: Daily Updates, Knesset — 5 Comments
March 22, 2015

It is unprecedented, but President Rivlin received special permission from the Central Elections Committee Chairman to begin consultations with the delegations of the ten lists elected to Knesset prior to official results. Final results that are not yet official were published on Thursday.

Six lists arrived at the President’s Residence today for “Day 1”.

Following Day 1: Netanyahu has received 51 endorsements (Likud, Bayit Yehudi, Shas and UTJ), Herzog 24 (Zionist Union), Neither 13 (The Joint List).

Tomorrow “Day 2” will begin with the last four lists (Kulanu, Yisrael Beitenu, Yesh Atid and Meretz) who will meet with President Rivlin.

President Rivlin will be allowed to officially grant the mandate of forming the next government when he receives the official results on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Despite serious charges of racism against Netanyahu, The Joint List did not recommend Zionist Union leader Herzog in Phase 2. The Joint List’s decision all but officially clinches Phase 2 for Prime Minister Netanyahu.

For those who missed the Top 20 Model’s Party-by-Party High-Low

Likud
High – Ashkelon 39.88%, Beer Sheva 37.69%, Netanya 33.54%
Low – Bnei Brak 4.57%, Tel Aviv 18.19%, Haifa 20.74%

Zionist Union
High – Kfar Saba 34.94%, 34.45% Hertzlia Tel Aviv 34.27%
Low – Bnei Brak 1.28%, Bet Shemesh 3.28%, Ashdod 8.56%

The Joint List
High – Haifa 8.27%, Tel Aviv 3.18%, Jerusalem 1.23%
Low – All others under 1%

Yesh Atid
High – Modiin 18.01%, Hertzlia 14.98%, Rishon L’Tzion 14.40%
Low – Bnei Brak 0.65%, Bet Shemesh 2.60%, Jerusalem 4.21%

Kulanu
High – Hadera 15.75%, Holon 11.98%, Rishon L’Tzion 11.44%
Low – Bnei Brak 1.15%, Bet Shemesh 3.50%, Jerusalem 4.68%

Bayit Yehudi
High – Raanana 10.91%, Petah Tikva 10.71%, Modiin 10.56%
Low – Bnei Brak 2.35%, Tel Aviv 3.36%, Hertzlia 4.16%

Shas
High – Bnei Brak 23.97%, Bet Shemesh 14.35%, Jerusalem 11.95%
Low – Modiin 1.25%, Raanana 2.06%, Haifa 2.23%

Yisrael Beitenu
High – Ashkelon 15.12%, Ashdod 13.36%, Bat Yam 12.88%
Low – Bnei Brak 0.68%, Raanana 1.48%, Tel Aviv 2.09%

UTJ
High – Bnei Brak 59.35%, Bet Shemesh 28.30%, Jerusalem 21.13%
Low – Modiin 0.58%, Holon 0.62%, Kfar Saba 0.63%

Meretz
High – Tel Aviv 13.02%, Hertzlia 6.51%, Ramat Gan 6.15%
Low – Bnei Brak 0.20%, Bet Shemessh 0.48%, Ashdod 0.75%

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Top 20 Populated Cities Model: 2015 vs 2013

Filed under: Daily Updates, Knesset — 16 Comments
March 20, 2015
Party/City 2015 Seats 2015 AVG 2013 Seats AVG Tel Aviv Tel Aviv
Years 2015 2013
Overall Votes 4,209,467 3,792,742 261,344 244,901
Likud 30 23.40% 31 w/YB 23.34% 18.19% 18%
Zionist Union 24 18.67% 15+6 16.38% 34.27% 24%
The Joint List 13 10.54% 4+4+3 9.20% 3.18% 3%
Yesh Atid 11 8.81% 19 14.33% 11.55% 21%
Kulanu 10 7.49% — — 6.88% —
Bayit Yehudi 8 6.74% 12 9.12% 3.36% 4%
Shas 7 5.73% 11 8.75% 3.90% 6%
Yisrael Beitenu 6 5.11% w/Likud w/Likud 2.09% w/Likud
UTJ 6 5.03% 7 5.16% 1.07% 1%
Meretz 5 3.93% 6 4.55% 13.02% 14%
Party/City Jerusalem Jerusalem Haifa Haifa Rishon Rishon
Years 2015 2013 2015 2013 2015 2013
Overall Votes 255,286 241,139 149,560 139,363 137,810 125,345
Likud 24.24% 21% 20.74% 26% 29.98% 31%
Zionist Union 9.67% 9% 25.28% 22% 22.85% 21%
The Joint List 1.23% 1% 8.27% 7% 0.06% <1%
Yesh Atid 4.21% 7% 11.25% 18% 14.40% 23%
Kulanu 4.68% — 8.49% — 11.44% —
Bayit Yehudi 8.33% 12% 5.37% 6% 5.25% 7%
Shas 11.95% 16% 2.23% 3% 2.97% 5%
Yisrael Beitenu 2.36% w/Likud 8.03% w/Likud 6.92% w/Likud
UTJ 21.13% 22% 3.27% 3% 0.67% 1%
Meretz 3.98% 4% 4.54% 5% 2.13% 2%
Party/City Petah Tikva Petah Tikva Ashdod Ashdod Netanya Netanya
Years 2015 2013 2015 2013 2015 2013
Overall Votes 124,400 111,194 113,203 103,274 105,468 92,694
Likud 28.15% 29% 31.49% 36% 33.54% 34%
Zionist Union 17.81% 16% 8.56% 10% 13.82% 13%
The Joint List 0.07% <1% 0.03% <1% 0.06% <1%
Yesh Atid 11.69% 18% 7.78% 10% 10.46% 16%
Kulanu 9.52% — 7.61% — 11.18% —
Bayit Yehudi 10.71% 13% 4.83% 7% 6.43% 11%
Shas 5.58% 7% 10.53% 17% 7.77% 11%
Yisrael Beitenu 6.72% w/Likud 13.36% w/Likud 7.99% w/Likud
UTJ 3.87% 4% 9.83% 10% 2.77% 2%
Meretz 2.00% 2% 0.75% 1% 1.46% 2%
Party/City Holon Holon Beer Sheva Beer Sheva Ramat Gan Ramat Gan
Years 2015 2013 2015 2013 2015 2013
Overall Votes 102,064 93,248 97,153 85,611 85,126 80,182
Likud 31.19% 31% 37.69% 38% 22.96% 23%
Zionist Union 20.12% 19% 12.24% 13% 31.15% 24%
The Joint List 0.09% <1% 0.55% <1% 0.23% <1%
Yesh Atid 12.50% 20% 7.53% 11% 14.28% 23%
Kulanu 11.98% — 8.80% — 9.74% —
Bayit Yehudi 4.86% 6% 6.98% 12% 6.03% 7%
Shas 7.88% 11% 6.36% 13% 3.13% 4%
Yisrael Beitenu 5.49% w/Likud 12.06% w/Likud 2.55% w/Likud
UTJ 0.62% <1% 0.70% 1% 0.98% 1%
Meretz 2.13% 3% 1.40% 2% 6.15% 7%
Party/City Bnei Brak Bnei Brak Rechovot Rechovot Bat Yam Bat Yam
Years 2015 2013 2015 2013 2015 2013
Overall Votes 78,621 75,147 69,382 62,147 68,204 63,960
Likud 4.57% 4% 27.18% 27% 33.36% 37%
Zionist Union 1.28% 1% 20.64% 19% 14.58% 16%
The Joint List 0.02% <1% 0.15% <1% 0.18% <1%
Yesh Atid 0.65% 1% 11.77% 17% 9.27% 15%
Kulanu 1.15% — 8.78% — 11.19% —
Bayit Yehudi 2.35% 4% 8.35% 11% 5.15% 7%
Shas 23.97% 25% 4.80% 8% 6.88% 12%
Yisrael Beitenu 0.68% w/Likud 5.26% w/Likud 12.88% w/Likud
UTJ 59.35% 60% 3.58% 4% 1.03% 1%
Meretz 0.20% <1% 3.76% 4% 1.42% 2%
Party/City Ashkelon Ashkelon Kfar Saba Kfar Saba Hertzlia Hertzlia
Years 2015 2013 2015 2013 2015 2013
Overall Votes 63,836 54,431 56,477 51,659 53,681 50,958
Likud 39.88% 42% 21.89% 23% 21.88% 22%
Zionist Union 9.72% 11% 34.94% 26% 34.45% 24%
The Joint List 0.08% <1% 0.19% <1% 0.19% <1%
Yesh Atid 6.60% 10% 14.32% 22% 14.98% 26%
Kulanu 8.37% — 7.88% — 8.54% —
Bayit Yehudi 5.68% 9% 5.57% 7% 4.16% 6%
Shas 6.58% 14% 2.43% 4% 2.85% 4%
Yisrael Beitenu 15.12% w/Likud 3.39% w/Likud 2.67% w/Likud
UTJ 1.00% 1% 0.63% <1% 1.08% 1%
Meretz 0.89% 1% 5.98% 7% 6.51% 8%
Party/City Hadera Hadera Modiin Modiin Raanana Raanana
Years 2015 2013 2015 2013 2015 2013
Overall Votes 44,726 38,578 43,830 39,954 42,842 41,153
Likud 32.16% 34% 22.87% 23% 21.45% 19%
Zionist Union 15.86% 18% 29.06% 23% 32.95% 23%
The Joint List 0.31% <1% 0.08% <1% 0.11% <1%
Yesh Atid 9.83% 16% 18.01% 27% 14.18% 24%
Kulanu 15.75% — 8.12% — 6.73% —
Bayit Yehudi 5.04% 8% 10.56% 12% 10.91% 14%
Shas 6.09% 9% 1.25% 2% 2.06% 3%
Yisrael Beitenu 8.38% w/Likud 2.19% w/Likud 1.48% w/Likud
UTJ 1.69% 2% 0.58% <1% 1.20% 1%
Meretz 1.94% 2% 4.84% 6% 5.47% 7%
Party/City Bet Shemesh Bet Shemesh
Years 2015 2013
Overall Votes 33,878 29,593
Likud 26.72% 23%
Zionist Union 3.28% 4%
The Joint List 0.02% <1%
Yesh Atid 2.60% 4%
Kulanu 3.50% —
Bayit Yehudi 9.01% 14%
Shas 14.35% 18%
Yisrael Beitenu 3.90% w/Likud
UTJ 28.30% 28%
Meretz 0.48% 1%

Update: Party-by-Party High-Low

Likud
High – Ashkelon 39.88%, Beer Sheva 37.69%, Netanya 33.54%
Low – Bnei Brak 4.57%, Tel Aviv 18.19%, Haifa 20.74%

Zionist Union
High – Kfar Saba 34.94%, 34.45% Hertzlia Tel Aviv 34.27%
Low – Bnei Brak 1.28%, Bet Shemesh 3.28%, Ashdod 8.56%

The Joint List
High – Haifa 8.27%, Tel Aviv 3.18%, Jerusalem 1.23%
Low – All others under 1%

Yesh Atid
High – Modiin 18.01%, Hertzlia 14.98%, Rishon L’Tzion 14.40%
Low – Bnei Brak 0.65%, Bet Shemesh 2.60%, Jerusalem 4.21%

Kulanu
High – Hadera 15.75%, Holon 11.98%, Rishon L’Tzion 11.44%
Low – Bnei Brak 1.15%, Bet Shemesh 3.50%, Jerusalem 4.68%

Bayit Yehudi
High – Raanana 10.91%, Petah Tikva 10.71%, Modiin 10.56%
Low – Bnei Brak 2.35%, Tel Aviv 3.36%, Hertzlia 4.16%

Shas
High – Bnei Brak 23.97%, Bet Shemesh 14.35%, Jerusalem 11.95%
Low – Modiin 1.25%, Raanana 2.06%, Haifa 2.23%

Yisrael Beitenu
High – Ashkelon 15.12%, Ashdod 13.36%, Bat Yam 12.88%
Low – Bnei Brak 0.68%, Raanana 1.48%, Tel Aviv 2.09%

UTJ
High – Bnei Brak 59.35%, Bet Shemesh 28.30%, Jerusalem 21.13%
Low – Modiin 0.58%, Holon 0.62%, Kfar Saba 0.63%

Meretz
High – Tel Aviv 13.02%, Hertzlia 6.51%, Ramat Gan 6.15%
Low – Bnei Brak 0.20%, Bet Shemessh 0.48%, Ashdod 0.75%

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Tidbits: Double Envelope Voting and Notable MKs & Former MKs who didn’t make the cut

Filed under: Daily Updates, Knesset — 13 Comments
Party Double Envelopes
Likud 25.65%
Zionist Union 17.71%
Bayit Yehudi 12.39%
The Joint List 12.39%
Yesh Atid 9.41%
Kulanu 8.81%
Meretz 4.56%
Shas 4.45%
Yisrael Beitenu 4%
Green Leaf 3.64%
Yachad 2.90%
UTJ 2.69%

Double envelope votes: Israeli army bases, overseas voting, specialized handicap stations, hospitals, jails and polling station committee members.

Notable MKs and former MKs who missed out on a Knesset seat

Likud – #37 Former Deputy Minister Michael Ratzon
Labor – #29 MK Moshe Mizrachi, #28 Former MK Robert Tyivayev
The Joint List – None
Yesh Atid – #12 MK Elazar Stern, #13 MK Penina Tamano, #14 MK Boaz Toporovsky, #15 MK Ruth Calderon, #16 MK Yifat Kariv, #17 MK Dov Lipman, #18 MK Ronen Hoffman
Kulanu – #12 Former MK and Kadima leader Akrem Hasoon
Bayit Yehudi – #9 MK Shuli Muaalam, #10 Deputy Minister Avi Wortzman, #13 MK Orit Struck
Shas – #8 MK Avraham Michaeli
Yisrael Beitenu – #7 MK Robert Ilatov, #11 MK Alex Miller, #12 MK Leon Litinsky, MK #14 Shimon Ochayon, #16 Former MK Moshe Matalon
UTJ – #7 MK Yaakov Asher
Meretz – #6 Former MK Mosi Raz, #9 Former MK Avshalom Vilan

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Final Knesset Results (not yet official results) vs 2013 Knesset Results

Filed under: Daily Updates, Knesset — 47 Comments
March 19, 2015
 Party 2015 Seats 2015% 2013 Seats 2013%
Likud 30 23.40% 31 w/YB 23.34%
Zionist Union 24 18.67% 15+6 16.38%
The Joint List 13 10.54% 4+4+3 9.20%
Yesh Atid 11 8.81% 19 14.33%
Kulanu 10 7.49% — —
Bayit Yehudi 8 6.74% 12 9.12%
Shas 7 5.73% 11 8.75%
Yisrael Beitenu 6 5.11% w/Likud w/Likud
UTJ 6 5.03% 7 5.16%
Meretz 5 3.93% 6 4.55%
Yachad 0 2.97% Otzma – 0 1.76%
Kadima — — 2 2.09%

Interesting voter breakdown by subgroup:

2013: Right – Likud+Yisrael Beitenu+Bayit Yehudi=43

2015: Right – Likud+Yisrael Beitenu+Bayit Yehudi=44

2013: Center – Lapid+Kadima=21

2015: Center – Lapid+Kulanu=21

2013: Left – Labor+Livni+Meretz=27

2015: Left – Labor+Livni+Meretz=29

2013: Arabs – Hadash+Ra’am+Ta’al+Balad=11

2015: Arabs – Hadash+Ra’am+Ta’al+Balad=13

2013: Haredim – Shas+UTJ=18

2015: Haredim – Shas+UTJ=13

Quick Analysis:

* Right voters moved within their camp.

* Center voters with a Center-Right tendency broke from Lapid to Kahlon.

* Left voters moved within their camp.

* Arabs increased turnout thanks to united list.

* Haredim were hurt by internal voting boycotts and perhaps as much as 1.21% going to Yachad.

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