Panels conducted a series of polls on January 18th 2017 with 517 people that had a 4.3% margin of error. The poll was published by both the Jerusalem Post and Maariv on January 20th 2017. As always, I am providing additional data that did not make it in to the print for all you data geeks out there.

If elections were held today who would you vote for?

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

26 [11] Yesh Atid

23 [30] Likud

13 [13] The Joint (Arab) List

13 [08] Bayit Yehudi

09 [24] Zionist Union

08 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

07 [10] Kulanu

07 [07] Shas

07 [06] Yisrael Beitenu

07 [05] Meretz

65 [67] Current Right-Religious Coalition

55 [53] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition

 

Scenario Poll #1: Likud led by Naftali Bennett

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

29 [30] Likud led by Bennett

27 [11] Yesh Atid

13 [13] The Joint (Arab) List

09 [24] Zionist Union

08 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

07 [10] Kulanu

07 [07] Shas

07 [06] Yisrael Beitenu

07 [05] Meretz

06 [08] Bayit Yehudi without Bennett

64 [67] Current Right-Religious Coalition

56 [53] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition

Note #1: Placing Naftali Bennett at the head of Likud gives its best showing (29 seats) at the expense of the Bayit Yehudi (6 seats).

 

Scenario Poll #2: Yaalon as #2 in Yesh Atid

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

30 [11] Yesh Atid w/Yaalon as #2

23 [30] Likud

13 [13] The Joint (Arab) List

13 [08] Bayit Yehudi

08 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

07 [10] Kulanu

07 [07] Shas

07 [06] Yisrael Beitenu

06 [24] Zionist Union

06 [05] Meretz

65 [67] Current Right-Religious Coalition

55 [53] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition

Note #2: 3 of 4 seats that Yesh Atid picks up is from Zionist Union.

Scenario Poll #3: Ashkenazi as #2 in Yesh Atid

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

27 [11] Yesh Atid w/Ashkenazi as #2

23 [30] Likud

13 [13] The Joint (Arab) List

12 [08] Bayit Yehudi

08 [24] Zionist Union

08 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

08 [06] Yisrael Beitenu

07 [10] Kulanu

07 [07] Shas

07 [05] Meretz

65 [67] Current Right-Religious Coalition

55 [53] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition

Note #3: Yesh Atid’s extra seat comes from the Zionist Union.

Scenario #4: New Yaalon Party

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

24 [11] Yesh Atid

23 [30] Likud

13 [13] The Joint (Arab) List

11 [08] Bayit Yehudi

08 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

08 [–] New Yaalon Party

07 [24] Zionist Union

07 [07] Shas

07 [06] Yisrael Beitenu

06 [10] Kulanu

06 [05] Meretz

70 [67] Current Right-Religious Coalition + Yaalon Party

50 [53] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition

Note #4: Yaalon’s 8 seats come mostly from the center-left parties Yesh Atid (4) and Zioninst Union (2).

Scenario #5: Ashkenazi as leader of Labor

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

24 [30] Likud

22 [11] Yesh Atid

15 [24] Zionist Union led by Ashkenazi

13 [13] The Joint (Arab) List

11 [08] Bayit Yehudi

08 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

08 [06] Yisrael Beitenu

07 [07] Shas

06 [10] Kulanu

06 [05] Meretz

64 [67] Current Right-Religious Coalition

56 [53] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition

Note #5: Only scenario with Zionist Union in double digits. Majority of votes is at the expense of Yesh Atid (4 seats).

Additional Questions:

If Prime Minister Netanyahu resigns and announces elections, of the following people who is most worthy to serve as Prime Minister?

22% None, 21% Lapid, 12% Bennett, 10% Don’t know, 7% Saar, 6% Yaalon, 4% Livni, 3% Liberman, 3% Erdan, 3% Kahlon, 3% Ashkeneazi, 3% Herzog, 2% Y. Katz

Note #6 – Right Voters:

25% None, 20% Bennett, 11% Lapid, 10% Don’t know, 9% Saar, 6% Erdan, 4% Liberman, 4% Kahlon, 4% Ashkenazi, 3% Y. Katz, 3% Yaalon, 1% Herzog, 0% Livni

Note #7 – Center Voters:

39% Lapid, 17% None, 9% Don’t know, 8% Saar, 6% Yaalon, 6% Herzog, 5% Livni, 4% Bennett, 2% Y. Katz, 1% Liberman, 1% Kahlon, 1% Ashkenazi, 0% Erdan

Note #8 – Left voters:

25% Lapid, 18% None, 16% Livni, 11% Yaalon, 10% Herzog, 9% Ashkenazi, 7% Don’t know, 4% Kahlon, 1% Saar, 0% Bennett, 0% Liberman, 0% Erdan, 0% Y. Katz

What if Prime Minister Netanyahu resigns from his party, who of the Likud Ministers in the past and present is most worthy to stand at the head of Likud?

18% Saar, 16% None, 16% Don’t know, 10% Erdan, 10% Yaalon, 9% Kahlon, 7% Y. Katz, 5% Edelstein, 4% Regev, 2% Dichter, 1% Elkin, 1% Levin, 1% Steinitz, 1% Hanegbi, 1% H. Katz, 1% Gamliel, 0% Akunis

Note #9 – Likud voters:

16% Erdan, 13% Saar, 13% Don’t know, 12% None, 10% Regev, 10% Y. Katz, 7% Kahlon, 6% Steinitz, 4% Edelstein, 4% Yaalon, 1% Dichter, 1% Hanegbi, 1% Akunis, 0% Elkin, 0% Levin, 0% H. Katz, 1% Gamliel

Do you think that the allegations towards Prime Minister Netanyahu are based [on something]?

57% Yes, 28% No, 15% Don’t know

One of the possibilities is that Benjamin Netanyahu will announce new elections where he will put himself up for the judgment of the court of public opinion that will decide if he is worthy or not worthy to serve as Prime Minister. If this happens the legal proceedings against him will end. Do you think a move like that is worthy or not worthy?

56% Not worthy, 27% Worthy, 17% Don’t know

Updated Note #10: The KJPA has been updated to include the poll: https://knessetjeremy.com/knessetjeremy-polling-average-the-israeli-poll-of-polls/

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