Geocartography conducted a poll that was published by Globes on Jan 9 2017.
If elections were held today who would you vote for?
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
27 [11] Yesh Atid
22 [30] Likud
13 [24] Zionist Union
13 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
10 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
09 [08] Bayit Yehudi
07 [06] Yisrael Beitenu
07 [05] Meretz
06 [10] Kulanu
06 [07] Shas
60 [67] Current Right-Religious Coalition
60 [53] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition
Note #1: 47% of Likud voters express certainty about it, compared to 33.5% of Yesh Atid voters.
Note #2: Results will be added shortly to the KnessetJeremy Polling Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls: https://knessetjeremy.com/knessetjeremy-polling-average-the-israeli-poll-of-polls/
Update: Results have been added to the average in the link above.
If you create four blocks, you have Yesh Atid+left at 47, Likud+right at 44, UTJ+Shas at 16 and Arabs at 13. The only way the Arabs play a role is to be a blocking force. The numbers seem to suggest the possibility of a Center government but, despite my personal antipathy to the current coalition, I do not believe it. Comments, Jeremy? Especially on stage 3 considerations.
I understand why some people would look at it as four blocs but I view it as two blocs for a number of reasons. The Arabs can play a role in Phase 2 in supporting a center-left government but will not play a role that is useful to the center-left in Phase 3.
I have previously discussed some of these points as part of my Weekend Perspective series. I recommend all of them but for your question particularly these two:
https://knessetjeremy.com/2016/03/04/my-weekend-perspective-the-key-to-defeating-netanyahu-is-phase-2/
https://knessetjeremy.com/2016/06/03/weekend-perspective-the-myth-of-the-anti-netanyahu-scenario-polls/
Thank you. Your reasoning remains valid. If, in the next elections, the current coalition could not reach 60 seats, what would you expect to happen?
If the current coalition does not reach 61 seats in Phase 1 that is when egos come into play. Somebody has to be able to manage the egos to find the right combination to reach 61 seats in both Phase 2 and Phase 3. Notice how in that piece I correctly predicted Liberman would only join Netanyahu’s government if he was appointed Defense Minister. I can’t tell you exactly what I would expect to happen in Phase 2 or 3 until I know the distribution of power in Phase 1. There are just too many variables.