Panels conducted two polls last weekend for Sof Shavua, the sister paper of the Jerusalem Post.
One poll with the new threshold of 3.25% and one poll with the 2% threshold.
New Threshold (3.25%)
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
36 [31] Likud Beitenu
20 [15] Labor
15 [12] Bayit Yehudi
12 [19] Yesh Atid
11 [06] Meretz
07 [11] Shas
07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
04 [06] Movement
04 [04] Hadash
04 [–] Strong Israel
00 [03] Balad
00 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
00 [02] Kadima
69 [61] Right-Religious
51 [59] Center-Left-Arab
Old Threshold (2%)
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
34 [31] Likud Beitenu
19 [15] Labor
14 [12] Bayit Yehudi
11 [19] Yesh Atid
10 [06] Meretz
07 [11] Shas
07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
04 [06] Movement
04 [04] Hadash
04 [03] Balad
03 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
03 [–] Strong Israel
00 [02] Kadima
65 [61] Right-Religious
55 [59] Center-Left-Arab
Knesset Jeremy Analysis: Surprisingly, Strong Israel comes in with 4 mandates in the new poll.
Ra’am-Ta’al, Balad and Kadima do not pass the new threshold. The right-religious block grows to 69 seats under the new threshold, compared to 65 with the old threshold. Panels points out that not everyone is aware of the new threshold and that we do expect merging of the smaller parties in the near future.
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
Great to see that the right-religious bloc gains on this new threshold- and also interesting that Otzma passes the new requirement (is this really thinkable?). Just sorry that Livni did not fall out in this poll (she almost does…).
Two points:
Let’s see what happens with the small left/Arab parties (Kadima, Livni, Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al, Balad). Most of us expect some mergers which would most likely cut into that right-religious bloc. Also remember this is before Kachalon’s new party and Olmert’s possible return.
National Union with Katzeleh & Uri Ariel won 4 seats in 2009. It hard to believe that Eldad, Ben-Ari, Marzel & Ben-Gvir would be able to repeat those 4 seats without Katzeleh/Uri Ariel/Moledet supporters.
I think two but not all three of the Arab parties will join to save themselves. I would guess that the communist Hadash and secular Balad ally leaving the Islamist Ra’am Ta’al out in the cold. Still, it looks like the right has gained in both polls. Shas with 7 seats and Yesh Atid with 11-12 is becoming a trend; their leaders should be worried. Bayit Yehudi will have a lot of leverage if it is larger than Yesh Atid or Shas/UTJ. Bennett can basically tell Likud “Include the Haredi in the coalition OR include Yesh Atid. Otherwise, good luck finding 61 MKs.” Likud has no realistic coalition options without BY and Herzog slammed the door on a Likud-Labor coalition recently.
I wonder if Otzma would be willing to join or be invited into any government under any circumstances especially if talks with the Arabs have broken down completely by the time the next election is held (which seems likely). Sitting in a government might be considered selling out even though staying out means very little influence over decision-making. I assume they would stay in opposition and “guard the right flank”. I also wonder if Netanyahu would actually tolerate the headache associated with including such a small yet, shall we say, vocal party.
That is just the thing i wonder about; that if the peace process has broken down and the palestinians are not at least for many, many years interested in more negotiations (provided that the deadline is not pushed forward and maybe Abbas has already dissolved the PA), then at least this issue will not be on the agenda (in the current form at least) and then maybe the biggest problem for Otzma to be in the government is gone. One could also say that if this is the case, then this would be Bayit Yehudi’s chance and the chance for guys like Aryeh Eldad to push their solution for the israeli-palestinian problem (e.g. two states for to people – Jordan and Israel, etc.). Then Otzma might join the government.
This would go like following: Bennett demands that Netanyahu takes in Otzma and hareidi parties. This would be supported be the nationalist-part of Likud (hopefully also then the bigger part). Why would this be possible? The right wants to use the failed talks to push their own peace solution and be able to “seriously” build all of the land of Israel.
What unites the right is their opposition to a Palestinian state in Judea & Samaria. If you are talking about the day after, well it seems sometimes like every MK has their own plan…
It’s possible that since BY has gotten all it wants out of Yesh Atid and Movement (Election Reform, Referendum, Service Bill, austerity budget), it may be ready to shift to the Haredi for future goals sooner than later:
1) stopping a conversion bill which includes Reform- Shas, UTJ, BY, and Otzma oppose.
2) gradual annexation of Area C by slowly applying Israeli laws one at a time.
3) Justice Ministry under nationalist control (likely a Likud nationalist)
4) Long Overdue Judicial Branch reform (appointing judges, judicial authority, etc.)
5) Accelerating migrants’ deportations
6) Reforming the presidency to popular vote
7) Illegalizing the release of Arab-Israelis in prisoner exchanges
These are the sorts of things the Haredi would support. Netanyahu also prefers the Haredi to Lapid. Deri is an obstacle to Shas in a right-wing government, but I get the feeling his influence will be dramatically curtailed if Shas actually ends up with 7 seats and Yishai will be in charge. I wonder how much longer the current government will last -less than 1 year would be my purely speculative guess. The partners are running out of common ground quickly and tempers are flaring which usually means something is going to give.
B.Y. may prefer Otzma in opposition but still supporting right wing policies. Otzma would be 3 or 4 extra votes for BY’s policies (90% of the time at least) in the Knesset without having to divvy up any cabinet jobs to them.
Anything is possible.
I don’t think BY would want Strong Israel in opposition.
All good points Naes. Shabbat shalom!
at least if i ran BY and ortzma would get in then i would want them in the coalition
I acutally expect Ra’am-Ta’al and Balad to merge. Hadash has a Jewish MK Khenin, and Jewish voters. That is why it is also my opinion that a merger of all three parties will lead to less overall votes for that list.
Shas will most likely split before next elections anyways into Dery and Yishai parties.
Lapid numbers will drop even more when Kachalon is polled.
I think BB would go towards the center-left to form a coalition like he always does (Livni, Barak, etc), despite BY’s numbers.
I don’t see Strong Israel passing the threshold.
Well, one could always hope that Kachalon does not form a party (unnecessary as their already is a party for guys like him, he should know that it is called “Likud” and that he and his supporters can vote in the primaries!) and that Olmert will not return (does not the Left see Herzog as their new champion?).
Hatnua: if no bigger party is going to merge with Hatnua, then maybe Livni is finished when the peace process fails under her watch (Livni – “the peace champion of the Left”).
Shas: would surely be great to see it split (with its currently polled 7-8 seats, well maybe one part or the other will not enter Knesset anymore; or both for that matter after “the usual” hareidi realizes how much Bennett has done for his/her life quality).
Arab party mergers – do not care that much, but of course better if it would decrease their total number of seats.
I guess UTJ will be just fine at about 7 seats?
The day after the peace process fails: I would hope that the nationalist right would come up with a common plan – otherwise the left will continue to spread the proraganda
Kachalon knows there is a market for him and he can capitalize on it.
These past elections showed you get a better job if you are #1 on a mid-sized party, compared to #3 on Likud Beitenu.
Olmert is always going to be a wildcard.
Livni will merge, I’m sure of it.
Shas split will be interesting, let’s wait for it.
UTJ’s fight is always about preventing splits, new threshold should prevent threat of splits.
I see your point about the Arab parties and Hadash may be odd man out due to its rather outdated nature. Correct me if I’m wrong but I thought Bibi initially reached out to the Haredi parties along with BY after the 2013 election. Netanyahu would have preferred a more traditional religious/right-wing alliance but the Bennett-Lapid alliance reduced his ability to maneuver. In 1996 his coalition seems to be all right-wing with 66 seats. In 2009, NU wouldn’t sit with him so he needed to bring in Labor which turned into a pretty compliant Independence party. Of course, he did form the “grand coalition” which lasted 2 months.
2013 – BB’s first call was to Yair Lapid. First party that joined coalition was Livni’s party.
Bennett-Lapid alliance was formed because BB didn’t want Bennett in his coalition.
Netanyahu actually offered Labor a very good deal including Shelly to be Finance Minister, plus Labor Industry & Trade, Health, Welfare and Agriculture portfolios. Shelly turned it down and was ousted less than a year later.
Netanyahu clearly didn’t want the coalition he got this time.
In 2009, Katzeleh and NU actually signed a coalition agreement with BB. BB ripped it up when Barak said that would be the price of him bringing in Labor to the coalition. For four years NU tried to join the coalition and for four years they were left outside. BB preferred Barak, even at 5 seats with Independence over Katzeleh and his 4 seats.
In 1996 BB left Moledet out of his coalition, he didn’t even invite party leader Zeevi to negotiate. The Third Way party, who was in his coalition was a break-off of the Labor Party.
Naes, I’m not sure where you are getting your information…
I do not remember if something “official” was said but at least the rumors I think was that the hareidi parties did not want to form a negotiation bloc with BY so the risk was that without the Lapid-alliance BY would have been left out.
Word on the street is that Dery rejected an alliance deal with Bennett and that sent him into Lapid’s arms.
would also hope that UTJ would split (similar movements happened in the local elections last year?).
UTJ did split in certain local elections.
For example in Bet Shemesh there was three lists (1 Lithuanian party, 2 Hasidim parties).
Well, something like that I remembered. Let’s hope that they split in the national elections too. Then the hareidi parties’ power in the Knesset “will be toast” so to say.