Smith conducted a poll that was pub;ished by Globes on Nov 1 2013.
Additionally, they conducted a scenario poll where Likud and Yisrael Beitenu are split.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
34 [31] Likud Beitenu
17 [15] Labor
13 [12] Bayit Yehudi
12 [19] Yesh Atid
12 [11] Shas
11 [06] Meretz
07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
04 [04] Hadash
04 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
03 [06] Movement
03 [03] Balad
00 [02] Kadima
66 [61] Right-Religious
54 [59] Center-Left-Arab
Scenario Poll: Likud and Yisrael Beitenu split.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
24 [20] Likud
17 [15] Labor
16 [12] Bayit Yehudi
12 [19] Yesh Atid
12 [11] Shas
11 [06] Meretz
07 [11] Yisrael Beitenu
07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
04 [04] Hadash
04 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
03 [06] Movement
03 [03] Balad
00 [02] Kadima
66 [61] Right-Religious
54 [59] Center-Left-Arab
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
Why are the breakdowns into right and left still provided? It seems that there should be a five way breakdown provided:right, left, center, Arabs, haredim.
Breakdowns because that is the only way that Netanyahu can ask left or center to join his next government.
יש לך שגיאה בתרחיש השני.
המידע פורסם ברוטר –
http://rotter.net/forum/scoops1/58150.shtml#26
ברוטר לא פורסם את כל הנתונים של התרחיש השני. רק ליכוד וישראל ביתנו בנתונים איך שפרסמתי אותם.
The fact that Yisrael Beiteinu ministers have supported several important Bayit yehudi bills could serve as a basis for a “merger” between Bayit Yehudi, Yisrael Beiteinu and additional Likud MKs that wish to clearly show Netanyahu that there shall not be a PA state.
That scenario is only likely in the event of a signed agreement that Netanyahu supports. I don’t see Likud splitting unless there is a signed agreement. Yisrael Beitenu’s fate is more complicated, wait for Liberman’s trial to end before speculating. It is true that relations have warmed up between Bayit Yehudi and Yisrael Beitenu.
I have been thinking about this for some time.
First of all Yisrael Beiteinu will need a new “home”/alliance when the one with Likud probably fails. At the same time one would have to take care of the rigth-wing elements in Shas (=Yishai??) and moderate hareidi (Am Shalem,…). Also including Otzma would be a good idea. And the right-wing part of Likud could take Netayahu’s power to negotiate with PA away from him by joining this alliance, either he comply or is forced out with his backers.
So a “Yishai-Shas”-Bayit Yehudi-Otzma-Am Shalem-Yisrael Beiteinu-Likud-alliance; with or without Netanyahu.
Any comments on this future scenario?
If Yishai has a majority of MKs in Shas he can break away with the Shas name. He won’t need a reason to merge with anyone. Amsalem doesn’t really provide so many votes. Otzma people don’t want to sit with Bayit Yehudi, they have turned down a number of opportunities.
A “right-wing dream team” party to the right of Netanyahu is something that has been discussed by certain analysts but the egos of the party leaders seem to prevent that. Remember when Livni, Olmert, Shelly, Zahava and Lapid couldn’t sit down and merge?
Yes, but as you said in one post, this could (partly) only be possible when Netanyahu supports a signed agreement with PA and Likud would then split. Also of course if Lieberman is going down or not will have an impact on who is willing to unite with Yisrael Beiteinu.
Of course Otzma would be a hard nut to break, so to say. But maybe at some point a big right-wing “anti-PA state” party would be interesting to even Otzma guys.
Yishai sitting with an own faction? Quite possible. But would he be interested in being part of a bigger party? Also possible.
Only time will tell.
Would still add that if Lieberman is convicted, then probably the alliance with Likud would end and the Yisrael Beiteinu MKs would need a new leader. Do not know if they want to sit alone. If not then maybe joining Bennett would be an interesting choice.
If Yisrael Beitenu splits with Likud, things could get very interesting. If Lieberman is convicted, the party loses its one charismatic leader and it would not be at all surprising if they join with Bayit Yehudi; the rank and file of Yisrael Beitenu is more right-wing than Lieberman who has an unearned reputation of being an ultra-nationalist. It won’t happen if Lieberman is still around. A Yisrael Beitenu-Bayit Yehudi combination would be the second largest party, and “Prime Minister Bennett” stops being sheer fantasy. Added to this, Otzma basically doesn’t exist anymore (it split again after the election according to “Jewish Press”) so it will be even more of a non-factor with a higher threshold. They were so close to getting over the threshold in the last election- only 9000 short. Whatever is left of the party has no chance of getting 3% or 4% and the voters know it. Every poll seems to show Bayit Yehudi with at least one extra seat so it is likely that some Otzma voters will be voting Bayit Yehudi. Otzma had no presence whatsoever in the recent municipal elections. I read a while ago (maybe July) Am Shallem regrets not joining Bayit Yehudi when he had the chance; that could be an extra seat for them if he joins. He did win 1.20 seats- just not enough for the threshold. They’d probably just have to put him in a decent spot on their election List- like 10th.
Shas will be very interesting to watch. Deri has been doing everything he can to push out Yishai and the previous poll you posted seems to indicate that Deri is not very popular. A formal split between Yishai and Deri could mean 5 or 6 mandates in a Yishai-led party. It could be just a small party or could join with Likud or Bayit Yehudi. Egos could prevent a Bayit Yehudi-Yisrael Beitenu (minus Lieberman)-Yishai alliance but frankly the most egotistical politicians in Israel are Lieberman, Deri, Livni, perhaps Lapid, and they wouldn’t have any say in the matter. Such an alliance would be the largest faction and would wield incredible influence. At the very least, it would limit Bibi’s coalition options which means more portfolios for the right wing such as Justice, Finance, Education, and the Interior. Justice has been the holy grail for the right for the longest time, since it always ends up in the hands of a leftist going back decades.
Would not a Yisrael Beitenu-Bayit Yehudi combination be the largest party (12+11=23; Likud 20; Yesh Atid 19; Hatnua 6) ? Also could Yishai politically join Bennett after all the negative attitude among hareidi against Bayit Yehudi?
I was looking at the second poll which gives 16 Bayit Yehudi+ 7 Israel Beiteinu = 23 while Likud gets 24. If you add up some Am Shallem+some portion of Otzma voters then maybe that is another seat for Bayit Yehudi. As far Yishai’s rhetoric vs. Deri’s rhetoric, Yishai is far more right wing and one of the many splits in Shas is right vs. left. Yishai joining with the Likud might be more likely for Yishai especially if Likud loses Israel Beiteinu and needs a partner to maintain the largest faction. I just have a hard time believing that Yishai would have a tiny party (potentially smaller than UTJ) floating out there especially with the election threshold set to go up. A small party has more influence if it merges with a larger party like Likud or Bayit Yehudi, because it can affect the party’s internal decision making process and its party platform. It has been Bayit Yehudi which has tried to make the Haredi plight more tolerable by increasing the exemption numbers, keeping the enlistment age higher, and opposing yeshiva budget cuts. Most of the Haredi hate Lapid much more than Bennett. There would be no point to a Yishai faction breaking away from Deri if he then supports all the exact same policies as Deri. Yishai’s faction getting back into the government while Deri’s does not further discredits Deri’s leadership over Shas. Plus, the optics of such an alliance would be compelling to the public: Religious Zionists (Bayit Yehudi)+mainly secular Russian immigrants (Israel Beiteinu)+ moderate Haredi (Yishai) united by a common ideology. Bayit Yehudi would have a good argument that it represents Israelis across the spectrum. Stranger things have happened in Israeli politics.
Yes a Liberman-Bennett party would be largest in current Knesset.
After I witnessed Mofaz vote on early elections in the first reading and enter the coalition a few hours later, yes – anything can happen in Israeli politics.
Okey, now I see what you mean. But I was thinking about the current numbers and what would happen if Yisrael beiteinu “now” joined Bayit yehudi. Then Bennett would be leading the biggest faction (=reason to during this government demand at least foreign ministry + control over peace process, etc.).
About Shas and Yishai: One often gets the impression that Shas and NOT UTJ would be willing to compromise on hareidi enlistment and other stuff. Maybe that could serve as a base for Yishai joining Bayit Yehudi, which surely would help Bennett reach out to the hareidi public and show that the party is not about to crush the position of judaism in Israel.
All this could surely happen during this government without it falling apart (despite Livni leaving because possibly being striped of her right to negotiate and veto laws). Of course this would require that Lapid do not leave because of Yishai in the government, but as Bennett and Lapid seems to still be able to work together and having a good working relationship, probably Bennett can convince him to see how the work goes.
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/173630#.Uni8B3BmiSo
From this one could draw the conclusion that an alliance with Yisrael Beiteinu could be a good idea but maybe not now an alliance with Yishai.