Panels conducted a poll that was broadcast by Knesset Channel 99 on Oct 29 2013.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
31 [31] Likud Beitenu
17 [15] Labor
17 [12] Bayit Yehudi
12 [19] Yesh Atid
12 [06] Meretz
10 [11] Shas
07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
04 [06] Movement
04 [04] Hadash
03 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
03 [03] Balad
00 [02] Kadima
65 [61] Right-Religious
55 [59] Center-Left-Arab
Knesset Jeremy Analysis:
The first poll following municipal elections: Likud Beitenu maintains their spot at the top of the polls. Labor continues to fail achieving a bump from their primary elections. Bayit Yehudi surprises with a tie for second place at 17 seats, their best showing in months. Yesh Atid and Meretz tie for 4th which is bad for Yesh Atid, yet good for Meretz. Shas maintains double digits despite key municipal losses. Kadima fails to pass 2% electoral threshold. Bottom Line: The “right-religious block” increases from 61 to 65.
Panels also conducted a poll of Shas voters:
Who should lead Shas? 56% Yishai 32% Deri
Following Jerusalem loss should Deri resign? 42% Yes 40% No
Has Deri become a burden on Shas? 42% Yes 28% No
Looks really good!
Labor: should be able to do better, Meretz seems to grab more new leftist seats than Labor; should worry the party about the future development
Bayit Yehudi: good numbers; lets now show the people (shephardim) where there are Bayit Yehudi mayors that this is a better option than Shas + some Shas internal fighting(civil war) + retake in Beit Shemesh and Cohen winning, should (?) lead to bigger drop for Shas and rising number for Bayit Yehudi
Meretz: quite impressive; seems to grab seats from arab parties, Livni and Yesh Atid; apparently a rising leftist power
Yesh Atid: not much of a jump from the last poll; Lapid is totally losing the power he has
Likud Beiteinu: seems to be in limbo; not much of a change; will probably start losing mandates to Bayit Yehudi when the PM, Saar etc. want more prisoner releases and at some point a building freeze to get some approvements to the peace process as the 9-month-limit is fast approaching
Shas: about to go down in the long run as there seems to be fruits for an internal fight with religious establishment supporting Deri and more right-wing sephardim wanting Yishai; these voters should try and integrate into Bayit Yehudi
Any comments on my analyses?
I agree although I don’t think there will be new elections in Bet Shemesh.
in the long run I think that Bayit Yehudi, Yisrael Beiteinu and rigth-wing Likud (Danon, Hotovely,…) should unite in one party to more effectively oppose a PA state, that the rest of Likud (Netanyahu, Saar,…) wants. Then demand the control of the peace process and a rotation of minister positions (e.g. Bennett PM, Danon DM, …)
I don’t see the Likud dumping Netanyahu at this point time. Check out my reply to your last post.