My Guess Poll
33 Likud Beitenu (Likud and Yisrael Beitenu)
16 Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home-National Union)
15 Labor
10 Shas
09 Yesh Atid
07 Movement
06 Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 Hadash
05 Ra’am-Ta’al
04 Kadima
04 Meretz
03 Balad
03 Strong Israel
Am Shalem and others don’t pass threshold
68 Right-Religious
52 Center-Left-Arab
* I predict a 22 seat shift from avg of polls but I don’t predict any shift that is larger than 3 seats.
* I don’t have time to explain my picks but I should be allowed to explain how I got to my picks after the deadline. As I had mentioned before, Israeli law forbids predicting results or publishing polls after today.
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Final Seats accourding to avg of polls, voting swaps and lost votes:
35 Likud Beitenu
18 Labor
15 Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home/National Union)
12 Yesh Atid
11 Shas
07 Movement
06 Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 Meretz
04 Hadash
03 Ra’am-Ta’al
03 Balad
67 Right-Religious
53 Center-Left-Arab
Kadima, Strong Israel, Am Shalem and others don’t pass 2.4% threshold.
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
Last two polls show the gap narrowing to 63-57, with Yesh Atid rising, and Jewish Home falling, a bit. So, it will be interesting to see how your prediction matches up.
My prediction, Likud Beitenu 35, Jewish home 14, Shas 11, Utj 5, Strong Israel 2, Labor 17, Lapid 12, Hatnua 8, Meretz 5, Arab parties 11. Right 67, Left 53.
My prediction – Likud 32, Jewish Home 14, Shas 10, Utj 6, Strong Israel 3. Labor 17, Lapid 13, Movement 6, Meretz 5, Kadima 2, Arabs 12. The right v left 65-55. Thanks for your great blog!
Likud Beiteinu 35
Bayit Yehudi 15
Shas 11
UTJ 6
Otzma LeYisrael (=Strong Israel) 2
Labor 16
Yesh Atid 11
Hatnua 7
Meretz 5
Arab parties 11
Here’s my prediction:
34 Likud Beitenu (Likud and Yisrael Beitenu)
16 Labor
14 Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home-National Union)
12 Yesh Atid
10 Shas
06 Movement
06 Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
04 Meretz
04 Hadash
04 Ra’am-Ta’al
03 Balad
03 Strong Israel
02 Kadima
02 Am Shalem
69 Right-Religious
51 Center-Left-Arab
Probably wishful thinking about Am Shalem, but I just think that he’ll be able to pull it out this weekend. Yesh Atid has ‘big mo’ and I suspect they’ll snag a couple more seats from Livni’s fading ‘movement’ because everyone thinks YA will be in the government and a lot less people think that of Livni. Strong Israel’s supporters are highly motivated, so I see them getting an extra seat. I think if Likud had another couple of weeks, they might be able to knock the Jewish Home down a couple more seats, but as it is, they’ll do okay. Meretz is interesting, but no one thinks they will be in the government – I predict they’ll also lose a few voters to YA.
Thank you for your great blog ! Here is my prediction :
34 Likud Beitenu
17 Labor
15 Bayit Yehudi
12 Yesh Atid
10 Shas
06 Movement
05 Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 Meretz
04 Hadash
04 Ra’am-Ta’al
03 Balad
03 Kadima
02 Strong Israel
Right-religious = 66
Center-left = 43
Arabs = 11
Jeremy, you are doing a tremedous job!
Now let me say my word:
33 Likud Beitenu (Likud and Yisrael Beitenu)
15 Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home-National Union)
15 Labor
11 Shas
12 Yesh Atid
06 Movement
06 Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
04 Hadash
03 Ra’am-Ta’al
02 Kadima
06 Meretz
04 Balad
03 Strong Israel
Yossi’s Predictions
36 Likud Beitenu
16 Labor
15 Bayit Yehudi
10 Yesh Atid
11 Shas
9 Movement
6 Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
5 Meretz
4 Hadash
3 Ra’am-Ta’al
3 Balad
2 Kadima
0 Strong Israel
0 Am Shalem
68 Right-Religious
52 Left-Arab
Collition=Bibi,Bennet,Shas,Yahadut, Livni
A few assumptions that went into my projections from Friday.
I think that Likud Beitenu ran a bad campaign and that is why I projected them where I did. Bayit Yehudi has very strong numbers in Judea, Samaria and the south which won’t come out on a 500 person poll, so I projected them higher. I projected Labor lower because they have been losing votes for a few weeks now. I projected Shas lower based on the sefardi neighborhoods I visit or have family in. Yesh Atid suffered in the polls from the most voters who might not come out on election day and the most voters that are undecided but are leaning towards them. Movement has been losing steam for a couple of weeks now. UTJ is pretty steady. I expect a lower turnout in Jewish vote and a higher turnout in Arab vote which will will help Hadash and Ra’am-Ta’al. I think many Meretz voters will change their mind in last days just as they did in 2009. Kadima might become the surprise of the election, at this point most people think they will be passing. I think Strong Israel will pass as well as Balad.
Jeremy, do you know where would be the best place to get live election coverage in English? Jpost or somewhere else?
My guess:
32 Likud Beitenu
16 Labor
15 Yesh Atid
14 Bayit Yehudi
10 Shas
07 Movement
06 Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 Meretz
04 Balad
04 Ra’am-Ta’al
03 Hadash
02 Kadima
02 Strong Israel
Based on the turnout numbers, I think we’re all going to be way off!
My Final Prediction, Likud Beitenu 34, Jewish Home 14, Shas 11, Utj 6, Strong Israel 2, Labor 16, Yesh Atid 11, Hatnua 8, Kadima 2, Meretz 5, Arab Parties 11, Right 67, Left and Arab Parties 53.
Awesome predictions guys.
the alliance between the Likud and Israel our home was a terrible mistake, the alliance lost seats to the religious zionist party of Jewish home and lost seats to the secular party of Yesh Atid, the alliance lost nearly 11 seats and the right lost 3 or 4 seats to the left !!!
Hindsight is 20/20 – I think Yesh Atid ran a really good campaign and Likud Beitenu ran a poor one.
yea correct, this is another reason, Likud campaign was so bad, and passive
probably best with: Likud + Bayit Jehudi + Yesh Atid = 61
PM Bibi
FM Bennett
Finance minister Lapid
Defence minister Ya’alon
etc.
lets hope. that the soldiers vote will shift the balance to the right !!!!!!
some 2 seats to Bayit Yehudi
it will be one seat to Jewish home but i am worried, another right wing party loses a seat to the left so the number will be the same !!!!!
when are the soldiers vote coming?
Tomrrow morning we should know final results although it might be pushed off to as late as Friday.
The predictions on here were almost as bad as some of the pollsters. Let’s see some more 72-48 splits, Maagar Mochot. Dialog and Dahaf were the closest pollsters.
thank God that the right won 61 seats and reached the majority, i hope that the next government will be based on the national camp.