Internal Poll conducted for Labor
Current Knesset seats in [brackets].
39 [42] Likud Beitenu (Likud and Yisrael Beitenu)
21 [08] Labor
10 [—] Yesh Atid
09 [10] Shas
09 [05] Jewish Home-Tekuma
07 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [—] The Movement (Livni Party)
05 [03] Meretz
04 [04] Hadash
04 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
03 [03] Balad
02 [01] Am Shalem
00 [28] Kadima
00 [05] Independence
00 [02] Strong Israel
66 [65] Right
54 [55] Center-Left
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
Have you heard of Nate Silver? Can you team up with him so I can understand this?
– Worried Jew in America
I have heard of Nate Silver. It is pretty straight forward.
Nate Silver said there is a propability of 85 % that Obama will win the re-election
And he was right. Hence my wanting him to tell me what is going on.
the national camp will win 69 seats , Likud/Beitenu 38 , Jewish home 12 , Shas 11 , Utj 5 , Amshalem 3 , the left wing camp will win 51 seats , Labor 19 , Yesh Atid 10 , The Movement 7 , Meretz 4 , arab parties 11
Problem is that there are lots of small sample polls, but don’t seem to be any large sample ones. Our host likes the panels poll.
i hope that the Jewish Home will win 12 seats so he can join Netanyahu government with four ministers , so it will enjoy strong influence , do u think it can do it and win 12 seats ?
Jewish Home is currently getting 9-10 seats in the polls. Next week after all Knesset list are closed the real polling starts.
thanks alot
I’m writing from Canada with a technical question about the list PR system in Israel. Is there a website that explains the details of how the calculation is done to determine the number of seats per party–the minimum threshold and how to handle fractions of seats? Also for the voters below the minimum threshold has there been any consideration given to allowing all voters a second choice like an alternative vote ballot?
The threshold is 2% of votes. Fractions of seats is complicated because of a vote trading system. I have never heard anyone discuss a second choice option and I can tell you that no one would favor that among the current parties represented in Knesset.
Knesset Central Election Committee
http://www.knesset.gov.il/elections19/heb/home.aspx
Even Labor’s internal poll shows that they suck. I am really curious to see if Strong Israel holds out or not – they could be really cutting of their nose to spite their face if they wind up just under the threshold.