Netanyahu’s Fourth Cabinet
Prime Minister Netanyahu will work to sign coalition agreements with Kulanu, Bayit Yehudi, Shas, UTJ and Yisrael Beitenu over the next few weeks. Judging by his previous three governments Netanyahu will save the Likud ministry appointments for last. It will be a tough race since everyone is looking for a promotion following Likud’s jump from 18 Knesset seats to 30. The Prime Minister was re-elected with 15 MKs from the previous Likud list, and 3 MKs are returning vets who are all looking for top jobs. The race for the Likud ministerial slots will be intense if after signing coalition deals with five other parties the next government indeed is limited to 18 ministers as the current law mandates. Netanyahu has in the past ignored the Likud primary results and created his own formula for appointing Likud members to his cabinet.
The Likud minister candidates can be divided into four groups: The current ministers, the veterans returning from hiatus, the veterans who were not on hiatus, and the class of 2009.
Prime Minister Netanyahu was able to reduce the large number of Likud veterans seeking a portfolio by one with the reconfirmation of Speaker Edelstein on the first day of the Knesset session. The five current Likud Ministers view themselves as candidates for a promotion to top portfolios. Defense Minister Yaalon expects to keep his position despite Bayit Yehudi’s Naftali Bennett and Yisrael Beitenu’s Avigdor Liberman’s demands. Likud’s new #2, Interior Minister Gilad Erdan, who was Likud’s #3 in the previous two Netanyahu governments, is looking for a promotion, and there are only a handful of portfolios that would accomplish that such as Foreign Affairs or Justice. The other three Likud Ministers – Transportation Minister Yisrael Katz, Strategic Affairs Minister Yuval Steinitz and Energy and Water Minister Silvan Shalom are also looking for promotions. Shalom will most likely become the only cabinet member to serve in all four Netanyahu governments.
Three veteran MKs who are now back in Knesset after a hiatus are expecting to be added to the cabinet table before other Likud MKs are considered for promotion. Although they have had their share of disagreements, Former Minister Benny Begin, who was first elected to Knesset in 1988, was brought out of retirement twice by Netanyahu and served as a Minister in Netanyahu’s first and second governments. Former Kadima Minister and security figure Avi Dichter is also expecting a ministry despite placing 26th on the Likud’s list. Another back bencher #24, former Deputy Minister and Druze MK Ayoub Kara, who was first elected to Knesset in 1999, is expecting a ministry because he is the only non-Jewish candidate vying for a cabinet position.
The next three ministerial candidates include three veteran MKs who have not taken a hiatus and played active roles in Netanyahu’s previous governments. They expect Netanyahu to follow his previous behavior of favoring seniority over the Likud primary results. Former Minister Tzachi Hanegbi, also a member of the 1988 class that included Netanyahu and Begin, is one of just four current Likud MKs to have served in Netanyahu’s first cabinet (the others are Begin, Shalom and Edelstein, then of the Yisrael B’Aliyah party). Former Deputy Minister Gila Gamliel, the only current Likud member of the 2003 class that is not a minister, expects to be appointed as the senior female Likud member. Committee Chairman Chaim Katz who has been passed up many times for a portfolio since he was first elected to Knesset in 1999 is expecting to finally join the cabinet.
That leaves six right-wing members of the Likud 2009 class: Zeev Elkin, Yariv Levin, Ofir Akunis, Danny Danon, Tzipi Hotovelly and Miri Regev. All of them expect to be ministers. Some of them have scored very high in the last two Likud primaries and others expect to be rewarded for performing the more difficult tasks of Netanyahu’s second and third governments. Judging by Netanyahu’s previous preferences his next government might not include these six right-wing Likud members.
It is not just the 2009 class who might be disappointed. Others such as Kara and Chaim Katz could also see themselves disappointed as well. With so much focus on his coalition partners and 17 of the 30 Likud MKs expecting a ministry, Prime Minister Netanyahu might have bigger headaches during his fourth government from his own party members who are not happy with their appointments.
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
I’m a little unclear on something. So there’s a limitation on cabinet ministers at 18 but does that mean that there’s a limitation on total number of portfolios? In other words, are they going to have eliminate/consolidate some of the more nebulous portfolios like Regional Cooperation and Strategic Affairs? Are cabinet officials still allowed to hold multiple portfolios at the same time? In a lot of countries the Minister of Defense can’t also be the Minister of Sport and Minister of Rural Development at the same time. But in Israel the pattern is to give people as many job titles as possible.
One of the biggest failures of the Lapid push in the previous government to lower the number of ministers is the increase of ministries. Some of the ministries might be merged but the number of ministries will not be limited to 18 for the next government, despite the new 18-minister limit. We could have ministers with three portfolios again.
It could actually be argued that this process costs the taxpayers more money and it is possible that the old way cost us less money. The problem with fact-checking these issues is the in-direct vs direct factors of the state budget.
18 doesn’t seem unreasonable to me as an outsider at least. Canada has 39 people in Cabinet right now (including the PM). Obviously a much bigger country with a much bigger legislature (308 MPs, rising to 338 next election), but still. Even my home province has 20 people in cabinet.
It seems like pushing for a smaller cabinet is one of those things that sounds nice during an election but that in practice accomplishes jack all.
Thanks for the answer. I wonder when the government is going to finish forming. It sounds like Kahlon and the Haredi are pretty much on board. I’m guessing Bennett will back off the foreign ministry demand in exchange for some extra portfolios even if his party only has 3 cabinet members in the next government: probably Education, Industry/Labor/Trade, Religious Affairs, the settlement planning committee, and maybe something like Public Security and/or Immigration. Frankly from the standpoint of servicing its religious Zionist voting base (a voting base which drifted to both Yachad and Likud), it makes far more sense for Bayit Yehudi to demand the Justice Ministry over the the Foreign Ministry, but I think Bennett likes being on CNN and the BBC.
How come you quit giving us coalition updates?
For those going through Knesset Jeremy withdrawal:
My latest piece in The Diplomatist:
“Victory of a Vibrant Democracy” – Is Israel on a collision course with her closest allies?
http://www.diplomatist.com/articles/article003.html
I have seen no reason to comment on the coalitition negotiations until they have proceeded a little. However, if Bennett now is to be “only” education minister (he deserves much better!), I feel I have to comment.
If Livni were able to get the justice ministry and to be Israel’s go-to-person with regard to the peace process with ONLY 6 seats AND if Lieberman also wowith ONLY 6 seats can get to stay as FM , then I really think that Bennett should demand to not only be educ.min. but also the go-to-person with regard to the peace process.
Pls, any comment/ try to talk with party members you know about such ideas…
putting Bennett in charge of the peace process is an insane idea that would undermine Israel’s international legitimacy in a real and dangerous way. Habayit Hayehudi is a fringe party. Livni only got six seats in 2013 but she had the most seats in the previous government and possessed global respect as an Israeli leader 8n the international scene. Outside of Israel, Bennet does not possess such regard, even among Jews and supporters of the Jewish state. many of us feel his 1 state solution is tantamount to Israeli suicide the goyim certainly do not understand him
You know what? I would guess that you are one of those leftist American jews who support Obama without exceptions. You would surely (just like J street) support Obama, the (“joke”-) Kerry and the (self-declared “royals”) Clintons even if they openly supported the BDS-movement.
Just because europeans and (too many) americans are stupid enough to choose for the leadership clowns like Obama, Holland, Löven (Sweden),… ; it does not mean that israelis must choose leaders such as Livni, Herzog, etc. – leaders who bring down their own countries to their knees because of stupidity. Europeans have consistently chosen politicians that tax and regulate Europe into the ground. Obama wants to destroy the meaning of the Constitution with his illegal immigration executive order, the illegal Obamacare, his actions to tear down the private insurance market and in the process dig a giant hole in the wallets of almost every averige american (already struggling) family. Israeli leftists on the other hand want to destroy Israel by tearing down the lifework of israelis in Judea and Samaria and East Jerusalem (think about how much money counted in these investments would be lost!!!).
I would suggest to you that instead of promoting this self-destructing leftist agenda, you would take a hard look at Ted Cruz (or Ben Carson or Mike Huckabee or any other conservative republican supporting Israel) and start voting for these guys instead of some crazy self-destructing dems.
Guilty. I voted for Obama in both elections, just like 75% of us did in the American Jewish communiity. I support immigration reform which includes Amnesty, I support true, single payer, health care reform. I am not a blind supporter of Democrats and am often quite harsh in my criticism of Obama, particularly his foreign policy record which fails to inspire the faith I need to believe that this Iran deal is not a catastrophic farce. I will be supporting Hillary in 2016 and I believe she will be more effective as president than Obama.
the Republican party is culturally anathema to most American Jews. the dems are far from perfect, but the gop simply marches in lockstep behind the interests of our wealthiest citizens, those least in need of govt support. I could write a short book on my reasons for loathing the American republican party. the dems are far, far from perfect but they are the only viable alternative.
any American politician stupid and/or venal enough to embrace the BDS movement will most assuredly not get my vote, fyi. the closest thing we have to a pro BDS candidate is probably Rand Paul
You know, when you say that you support single payer, health care reform and amnesty, I really have to inform you of what that would mean for the States – and pls, listen to what I have to say because I am a scandinavian living in such a social democratic welfare state, so I think I know better than american leftist (think Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren etc.) what the consequences would be of implementing that model in the US.
In Scandinavia we have taken in so many immigrants (asylum seekers) from the ME, Africa, Afghanistan and so on. We have a single payer, health care system. Education is “free” for all. All this is paid for by taxing and regulating the economy and small businesses to death (almost literally). The economic growth numbers are just terrible. And you know what? STILL the health care system fails to give good quality and enough health care to everybody. And because of the taxes and regulation, the economy is not growing and consequently there must be cuts to these already failing health services to pay for the massive bureaucracy that is included in having a social democratic welfare state.
So it is not that easy…
About your comments on dems and reps: more people have left the workforce during Obama, the debt is skyrocketing (and continuing), the economic growth is a joke, the unemployment numbers for blacks and hispanics is higher than ever before, … I could go on with the list but now I do not have time, BUT you get my point.
interesting. I do not know enough about the internal politics of scandanavian countries to comment intelligently, but from what you say perhaps the issue is this-in your country you describe things as tilting too far in a socialist direction and feel that this causes inefficiency and bloated health care costs. in the US, health care policy tilts too far in the direction of unfettered capitalism, and this causes inflated cost and inefficiency. we spend more on health care as a % of G.D.P. than any other developed nation. Access to health care and the costs of health care are serious, life and death issues for average Americans. for the wealthy, our system is without peer. Obamacare, which grown more popular with the passage of time btw, has helped the situation but is by no means a cure all. For profit industry has much too great a sway in my country. I wonder if your perspective might be a bit different if you lived here. Immigration is also a religious source of economic vitality here, especially in a place like New York City. my understanding ofimmigrants to European countries is that they do not integrate into the broader, homogeneous culture of European countries very well and often end up ‘outside’ the economy. sadly we have a built in economic underclass in the black community here in America. so immigrants occupy a slightly different space in our society, I believe
we are way off topic here but Jan enjoyable exchange nonetheless.
Jeremy, any insight regarding Lieberman’s announcement and crunch time for coalition talks? Do you believe a 61 MR government is viable long term?Do you think Bibi intends to bring Herzog into the coalition, either now or after a narrow coalition is formed.Is there any chance that there is no coalition by Thursday? Is the Foreign Ministry sufficient inducement to Herzog?Interested to hear your thoughts on this unexpected development. All in all, it seems that forming a coalition has been much harder than expected after Likud’s strong showing at the polls. If final results had mirrored the exit polls, with perhaps a 1 seat Likud edge, perhaps a Herzog govt would in fact have emerged…
3 options:
Narrow 61 mk coalition.
New elections.
Unity government with all or perhaps small part of zionist union.
There is no herzog govt because:
watch liberman press conference. He flanked netanyahu and bennett to the right.
given what was handed to haredim by netanyahu it is impossible to have them and yesh atid in same government.
kahlon can’t sit with the joint arab list. The gaps between them expanded.
herzog just doesn’t have the numbers and if netanyahu does fail most parties will prefer another election, despite the cost…
Thanks Jeremy. Your analysis seems spot on. Just to clarify…my mention of Herzog govt was in reference to an alternate scenario where BibI had a narrower victory, as the initial exit polls had showed on election night. agreed that it isn’t a possibility as things stand. Thanks for the thoughtful reply
my prediction…although election day should have gotten me out of the business of making them…a narrow 61 MK coalition is formed but in the near future, Herzog comes in with some portion of the Zionist union faction and is made FM. should be interesting
uszionist,
what you are joking about is not at all funny. Herzog and his pack of post-zionist (self-destructing) MKs would bring their self-destructing behavior onto everybody else and bring down everybody with them (including the jews in the Diaspora in the long term).
I don’t view Herzog as a post Zionist. To me he seems like a decent guy, committed to Israel and working to secure it’s future as best he can. I think he has something of a deficit in leadership skills, however. Still, though you or I may disagree with his conclusions I think it is unfair to impugn his motives. I frequently find myself unsettled by, say, Naftali Bennett’s vision of Israel’s future, and it is my opinion that his preferred policies would endanger Israel…however, I am sure that that is not Mr Bennett’s intention. in any case the ultimate protector of Israel never slèeps
You know that Bennett’s plan is not to annex Judea and Samaria in one piece on day 1 – it is to solve the conflict in steps (in cooperation with the US, etc. I would guess). First israel annexes Area C and the pals get an enchanced autonomy in area A+B (all in connection with peace negotions with some partners). Then maybe one can start to solve the rest – meaning joint Israeli-jordanian control over A+B or Israeli control but with the pals there receiving Jordanian citizenship or …
That plan should be acceptable for the US and other world powers. At least it surely would be easier to execute than the 2-state-solution.
listen, I understand Bennett’s proposal and why it is attractive to many. The prospects for a two state peace are not looking great. I just think what he proposes is not realistic. I think selling the Israeli people, and diaspora Zionists, on the idea that the conflict can be resolved or the problem solved by aggressive settlement and annexation in Judea and Samaria is plain irresponsible. Such a path is more likely to lead to increased isolation internationally and increased violence internally, in my view. Now, I do not claim that I have the perfect solution but that is not the issue. Bennett doesn’t either. just my opinion
Agree that narrow 61 coalition is by far the most likely outcome — bb and Bennett almost certainly will reach a last minute deal. But what if they don’t? What does Rivlin do? 1-call new elections immediately; 2–give Herzog a chance as the leader of the second largest party; 3–give someone else, like Kahlon or Lapid a chance? The numbers don’t work for herzog (as you point out) so 2 seems unlikely. But how crazy is 3? Might Kahlon be able to pull both Likud and ZU into a national unity government with himself as PM, bb at defense, and Herzog as foreign minister? (Potentially Adding either the haredi or Lapid as well?)
I would guess that it will be number 1 – if not first number 2 and when Herzog has not been able to build a coalition by mid-june then number 1 would happen and the elections would be held in october (?).
my understanding is that if Bibi fails to form a govt, Herzog will get a few weeks to try. failing that, MKs could nominate someone else…perhaps Kahlon or more likely a different member of Likud.only if no one can form a government do new elections get called. I think it is highly unlikely that it comes to that. BibI and bennett will almost certainly reach an agreement, and I do expect Netanyahu to attempt to bring Herzog in fairly quickly Broad based coalitions are obviously m8re durable
Yeh, then when the third person fails to form a govt, new elections will be called and held probably some time in november/december.
haaretz reporting Bibi has informed Ruvi that he has a coalotion deal with Bennett. likud sources saying they will seek to broaden the coalition in the coming weeks. no details yet on what ministries Habayit Hayehudi will receive
more details from haaretz…Bennet gets education, bayit yehudi also gets justice portfolio and constitution, law, and justicecommittee, making the faction well positioned to change the face of the judiciary…if it remains in the coalition, that is
Who would have thought these negotiations would go down to the wire like they did? If, just after the election, someone had given me a series of news articles from the past week, I would have thought they were some kind of farcical satire.
Bennett, although not a good campaigner or party leader, proved to be a first-rate extortioner, getting what he wanted only by taking advantage of Netanyahu’s reluctance to surrender Rivlin’s mandate to Herzog and a left-wing government. This is now twice in a row that Bennett has used extortion as his tactic of choice in coalition negotiations.
I hope everyone on the right is paying attention to the implications: Bayit Yehudi under Naftali Bennett is NOT a reliable right-wing coalition partner, and they should not be assumed to be such during future election campaigns. Likud must take note: the stability of future right-led governments depends on crushing Bayit Yehudi in elections, and Likud needs to treat them the same way they treat the left wing in future elections.
What’s amazing is that we may not even be out of the woods just yet: Takuma has finally had it with Bennett and is publicly threatening to go into the opposition over Bennett’s decision to appoint Shaked to Justice in breach of the merger agreement between Bayit Yehudi and Tekuma, which specifies that a Tekuma member is supposed to get the second most senior position offered in any coalition deal accepted by Bayit Yehudi. Also, the fact that Shaked is secular doesn’t help assuage religious Zionists’ longstanding suspicion that Bennett is trying to secularize the party and abandon the religious Zionist community at his earliest convenience.
My advice to Tekuma would be to hold on until the next election so as not to torpedo the right-wing government that Netanyahu has finally managed to pull together. Then split off right before the election, ally with Yishai, and leave Bennett to run the rump single-issue settlers’ party he’s left with into the ground. The outcome can only strengthen the right.
If Likud and. Labor can come together it would likely be on the not so narrow issue of electoral reform along the relatively bi-partisan proposals of the Israel Democracy Institute: Leader of party with most seats gets first shot at forming a government; gradually enlarging Knesset to 180 members; portion elected in geographic constituencies; greater internal party democracy and possibly raising the threshold to a full 4%. The hope is to get the country back to two relatively centrist parties each hovering around 35-40 seats. A promise to push such reform might entice labor. Btw until Bibi’s second coming Israeli governments despite a low threshold had a stability rate more or less equal to that of other comparably sized democracies.
Maybe Bezalel Smotrich should be given the deputy DM position if Tekuma still threatens to leave Bayit Yehudi. Or? Any thoughts?
Obviously gotta have some Jeremy thoughts on Bibi offering Buji the Foreign Ministry. I mean, seriously now, what the truck?