The coalition agreement between Likud and Bayit Yehudi reveals that Likud will be appointing 12 Ministers. In my previous piece I pointed out that 17 Likud MKs are asking for a ministry. In a narrow coalition of 61-MKs every vote counts and some Likud MKs have started to wage an internal war. Certain Ministers are looking for a promotion and others are fighting to be a Minister. It looks like Netanyahu is planning on lowering the number of disappointed Likud MKs with positions such as another Deputy Defense Minister and the position of the Knesset’s Defense & Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman. There are 18 ministries currently open for the 12 incoming Likud ministers following the coalition agreements with UTJ, Kulanu, Shas and Bayit Yehudi. Expect some of the 18 open ministries to be merged.
Here is a wild prediction:
Foreign Minister – Netanyahu keeps it to himself for now
Immigration & Absorption Minister – Netanyahu keeps it to himself for now
Defense Minister – Yaalon (again)
Interior Minister – Shalom
Internal (Homeland) Security Minister – Erdan
Transportation Minister – Y. Katz (again)
Communications Minister – Steinitz
Energy & Water Minister – Hanegbi
Welfare Minister – C. Katz
Tourism Minister – Regev
Culture & Sport Minister – Elkin
Science & Technology Minister – Levin
Senior Citizens Minister – G. Gamliel
International Relations Minister, Strategic Affairs Minister, Intelligence Affairs Minister, Regional Cooperation Minister, Jerusalem Affairs Minister – Benny Begin
Defense & Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman – Dichter
Deputy Defense Minister #2 – Kara
Deputy in Prime Minister Office Minister – Akunis
Deputy Minister – Hotovely
Danon will be offered a Deputy Minister and will turn it down.
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
Bibi needs the 61 MK´s to approve his government. Is he worried about a possible rebel MK (one is enough) and the collapse of his government before his birth?
Of course he is worried. It is a very slim margin.
According to my understanding of what I read on IMRA one rebel MK would not lead to a collapse of the government.
A no-confidence vote requires 61 votes for an alternative Prime Minister. No longer can a no confidence vote lead directly to new elections because it always is a vote for somebody else.
But I suppose people could tactically vote for someone as Prime Minister that they had no intention of supporting.
You do need a vote of confidence in the first Knesset vote that approves the government. After that you can survive on a security net and some governments have.
I had thought: One reason Herzog says he will not join a coaliton with Netanyahu could be because if his party joined the government, the Joint (Arab) List, as the largest party outside the government, would become the leader of the opposition and entitled to security briefings. He may not want to say that.
That could explain maybe why the idea of him creating a splitaway faction of just 3 or 4 members is being looked into. Labor would still then be larger than the Joint List.
you cannot call a person an enemy of the state on Tuesday and then offer him deputy PM on Wednesday. Herzog, rightly, still sings the Zionism of Herzl and BG and not the less than veiled messianism of BY and racism of Benayoun. Bibi can now dance with the folks who brought him.
The leader of the largest opposition party does not automatically become the head of the opposition. Most likely if Zionist Union joined the government than Yisrael Beitenu and/or Meretz would back Yesh Atid for that position.
Jeremy,
why as many as five ministries for Benny Begin? Because all those ministries REALLY could be homogeneous as one package and/or Netanyahu just likes Begin?
Easier to merge them under one guy.
If Netanyahu does need to reduce the number of ministers, then why not for example (some of) the following combinations:
Foreign Minister + International Relations Minister + Strategic Affairs Minister + Regional Cooperation Minister
Interior Minister + Internal (Homeland) Security Minister + Jerusalem Affairs Minister
Defense Minister + Intelligence Affairs Minister
Tourism Minister + Culture & Sport Minister
Deputy Defense Minister #2 – NECESSARY???
Those are not likely combos given Netanyahu’s thinking.
2nd Deputy Defense Minister is not NECESSARY but he will do it to buy off someone looking for a ministry.
I see that writing my second post, I missed your answer to me. Yeh I also figured that Netanyahu would not do those combinations but part of my idea was to think about more intelligent combinations (bundling together positions with similar responsibilities would surely save money).
PREDICTION:
assumptions: the 18-minister limit must be kept (because there are not enough votes to raise it) and the limit includes the PM (i.e. 9 positions remain). Also ministries with similar/overlapping responsibilities are combined into “super”-ministries.
portfolios with names:
Foreign Minister, International Relations Minister, Strategic Affairs Minister, Regional Cooperation Minister – Shalom
Defense Minister, Intelligence Affairs Minister – Yaalon
Interior Minister, Internal (Homeland) Security Minister, Jerusalem Affairs Minister – Erdan
Immigration & Absorption Minister – Netanyahu (=one “new” guy less!!) (KARA as DEPUTY)
Tourism Minister, Culture & Sport Minister – Regev
Science & Technology Minister, Senior Citizens Minister – G. Gamliel
Welfare Minister – Levin
Energy & Water Minister – Hanegbi
Communications Minister – Steinitz
Transportation Minister – Y. Katz
I wish you would post articles daily or at least every few days or tell me where you post them if it is somewhere else
You can catch me on Voice of Israel a lot.
Email me for more details.
The Rumor Mill says:
Foreign Minister – Netanyahu keeps it to himself for now
Science & Technology Minister – Netanyahu keeps it to himself for now
Defense Minister – Yaalon (again)
Transportation Minister – Y. Katz (again)
Internal (Homeland) Security Minister & Intelligence Affairs Minister – Erdan
Interior Minister – Steinitz
Energy & Water Minister, Regional Cooperation Minister – Shalom
Senior Citizens Minister – G. Gamliel
Communications Minister – Hanegbi
Welfare Minister – Regev
Tourism Minister – Danon
Culture & Sport Minister – Levin
Immigration & Absorption Minister & Minister in charge of relations with the Knesset – Elkin
Defense & Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman – Begin
Deputy in Prime Minister Office Minister – Kara
If True – Remaining Questions:
Who is 12th minister? C. Katz, Dichter, Akunis or Hotovely
Ministries still open are: International Relations Minister, Strategic Affairs Minister, Jerusalem Affairs Minister.
Other positions: Deputy Defense Minister #2 and a few Committee Chair positions.
Netanyahu had the offered Intelligence Affairs Ministry as a #2 ministry to Erdan, with Internal Security as the #1. Erdan said Foreign Ministry or bust.
So Yisrael.Katz gets Intelligence Affairs Ministry as his #2, in addition to keeping Transportation Ministry. Katz, #4 on the Likud list, will now be a member of the Security Cabinet.
Latest Rumor Mill Updates:
Erdan had asked for Interior+Internal Security Ministry together in return for giving up on Foreign and Netanyahu refused.
Regev and Chaim Katz are fighting for Welfare Ministry and neither will accept (at this time) a different portfolio.
Kara was evacuated by ambulance after not feeling well.
Yuval Steinitz gets Energy and National Infrastructure portfolio. Will join Katz on security cabinet and maintain Iran responsibilities.
Netanyahu offered Silvan Shalom the Interior. Shalom said Foreign or nothing and left.
Latest Tidbits
Yaalon – Defense
Akunis will be Minister in Communications Ministry, but Netanyahu will be Communications Minister
Hotovelly and Kara are claiming their health issues might prevent them from attending vote tonight.
Summary so far:
Finalized
Yisrael Katz – Transportation + Intelligence Affairs
Yaalon – Defense
Steinitz – Energy and Water + certain authorities from Strategic Affairs
Akunis – Minister in Communications Ministry (but not the Com Minister)
Not Finalized
Erdan & Shalom are still both pushing for Foreign.
Regev & Chaim Katz are still both pushing for Welfare. Reports that Katz turned down Culture & Sport.
Confirmed:
Yaalon – Defense
Yisrael Katz – Transportation + Intelligence Affairs
Steinitz – Energy and Water + certain authorities from Strategic Affairs
Akunis – Minister in Communications Ministry (but not the Com Minister)
Levin – Tourism Minister & Minister in charge of coordinating with Knesset
Regev – Culture & Sport
Chaim Katz – Welfare
Danon – Science & Technology
Erdan & Shalom are still holding out.
Hotovelly – Deputy Foreign Minister (Netanyahu will be Foreign Minister)
Elkin & Hanegbi are expected to receive ministry positions soon.
So will Akunis be deputy Communications Minister or? How could he otherwise be a minister in that ministry if he would not be Communications Minister?