Knesset Jeremy – The Israeli Poll of Polls
Knesset Jeremy Weekly Average #15 (week of Jan 12-18 2013) of 16 polls (3 Panels, 2 Maagar Mochot, 2 Smith, 2 Midgam, 2 Dahaf, 2 Dialog, Teleseker, New Wave, Geocartography)
Current Knesset seats in [brackets], Week 14 average in (brackets):
33.7 (34.0) [42] Likud Beitenu
16.5 (17.3) [08] Labor
14.0 (14.2) [05] Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home/National Union)
10.9 (10.3) [—] Yesh Atid
10.6 (10.3) [10] Shas
7.2 (7.8) [07] Movement
5.8 (6.0) [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
5.7 (4.8) [03] Meretz
3.9 (3.7) [04] Hadash
3.5 (3.6) [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
3.4 (3.3) [03] Balad
2.3 (1.4) [21] Kadima
1.9 (1.2) [02] Strong Israel
0.6 (1.0) [01] Am Shalem
— (0.0) [05] Independence (No longer running)
66.3 (67.07) [65] Right-Religious
53.6 (52.92) [55] Center-Left-Arab
Changes from week 14 to week 15:
Yesh Atid passes Shas for 4th place.
Largest Gains: Kadima and Meretz gained 0.9 of a seat each, Meretz and Strong Israel gained 0.7.
Biggest Losses: Labor lost 0.8 of a seat and Movement lost 0.6 of a seat.
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Final Seats accourding to avg of polls, voting swaps and lost votes:
35 Likud Beitenu
18 Labor
15 Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home/National Union)
12 Yesh Atid
11 Shas
7 Movement
6 Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
6 Meretz
4 Hadash
3 Ra’am-Ta’al
3 Balad
67 Right-Religious
53 Center-Left-Arab
Kadima, Strong Israel, Am Shalem and others don’t pass 2.0% threshold of 2.4 seats.
* Next post will include my “Guess Poll”.
could please elaborate on the final seats text?
Israeli system is hard to explain but I will do my best to make it as simple as possible. There are 109 solid seats based on the avg of polls. The other 11 are distributed based on fractions of seats, seats of parties that don’t pass, which give larger parties an advantage to gain more than smaller parties and vote-swap agreements that were signed six weeks ago.
Thnx a lot for the info. Btw I was under the impression that the threshold is 2%, not 2,4%
Thanks for catching that, it was a typo.
Threshold = 2.0% threshold of 2.4 seats.