Archive for January 11, 2013


Knesset Jeremy Readers,

Next Friday I will release the last Knesset Jeremy Weekly Average.
This means Knesset Jeremy Weekly Average #15 will be the last poll related post on Knesset Jeremy due to the Israeli law.
Israeli law: 18 January 2013 – after this date the publication of polls and predictions is prohibited.

Knesset Jeremy Weekly Average #15 will include the usual poll average of national polls taken from Jan 13-18.
I will also include my own prediction which will be based on polls, but will also include non-scientific hunches.
It will be interesting to see which one is closer to the final result.
I will be happy to comment on the thread up until election day based on my thoughts on Jan 18.

Election/Poll season brought many new readers to Knesset Jeremy and I hope to see you stick around after the 19th Knesset starts. Knesset Jeremy is the only place where you can get daily updates from the Knesset’s plenum sessions in English.

Thanks,

Jeremy Saltan

Knesset Jeremy – The Israeli Poll of Polls

Knesset Jeremy Weekly Average #14 (week of Jan 6-12 2013) of 13 polls (Two Channel 2, Yediot Achronot, Channel 10, Channel 1, Knesset Channel, Maariv, Yisrael Hayom, Walla, Reshet Bet, Jerusalem Post/Globes, Yisrael Post/Sof Shavua, Times of Israel)

Current Knesset seats in [brackets], Week 13 average in (brackets):

34.0 (34.0) [42] Likud Beitenu
17.3 (17.1) [08] Labor
14.2 (14.5) [05] Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home/National Union)
10.3 (10.5) [10] Shas
10.3 (9.4) [---] Yesh Atid
7.8 (9.5) [07] Movement (Livni)
6.0 (5.7) [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
4.8 (4.4) [03] Meretz
3.7 (4.0) [04] Hadash
3.6 (3.8) [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
3.3 (3.3) [03] Balad
1.4 (1.1) [21] Kadima
1.2 (1.6) [02] Strong Israel
1.0 (0.6) [01] Am Shalem
— (0.0) [05] Independence (No longer running)

67.07 (67.1) [65] Right-Religious
52.92 (52.8) [55] Center-Left-Arab

Changes from week 13 to week 14:
Yesh Atid passes Movement for 5th place.
Kadima passes Strong Israel for 12th place.

Largest Gains: Yesh Atid gained 0.9 of a seat, Meretz and Am Shalem both gained 0.4 of a seat each.
Biggest Losses: Movement lost 1.7 seats and Strong Israel lost 0.4 of a seat.

Yisrael Post/Sof Hashavua poll that was published on Jan 11 2013.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

34 [42] Likud Beitenu (Likud and Yisrael Beitenu)
17 [08] Labor
14 [05] Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home-National Union)
11 [---] Yesh Atid
09 [10] Shas
09 [07] The Movement
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [03] Meretz
04 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
03 [04] Hadash
03 [03] Balad
03 [02] Strong Israel
02 [21] Kadima
00 [01] Am Shalem
00 [05] Independence (not running)

66 [65] Right-Religious
54 [55] Center-Left-Arab

Smith poll of 870 people with an error rate of +/- 3% conducted for Jerusalem Post that was published on Jan 11 2013.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

34 [42] Likud Beitenu (Likud and Yisrael Beitenu)
18 [08] Labor
14 [05] Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home-National Union)
10 [10] Shas
10 [---] Yesh Atid
08 [07] The Movement
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
04 [04] Hadash
04 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
04 [03] Meretz
03 [03] Balad
03 [01] Am Shalem
02 [21] Kadima
00 [02] Strong Israel
00 [05] Independence (not running)

67 [65] Right-Religious
53 [55] Center-Left-Arab

Strong Israel under 2%, Eretz Hadasha (1.7%) Koah Lehashpia (1.5%)

Dahaf poll of 1000 people with an error rate of +/- 0.8 to 3 seats conducted for Yediot Achronot that was published on Jan 11 2013.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

33 [42] Likud Beitenu (Likud and Yisrael Beitenu)
18 [08] Labor
14 [05] Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home-National Union)
11 [---] Yesh Atid
10 [10] Shas
08 [07] The Movement
06 [03] Meretz
05 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
04 [04] Hadash
04 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
03 [03] Balad
02 [21] Kadima
02 [02] Strong Israel
00 [01] Am Shalem
00 [05] Independence (not running)

64 [65] Right-Religious
56 [55] Center-Left-Arab

New Wave poll conducted for Yisrael Hayom that was published on Jan 11 2013.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

35 [42] Likud Beitenu (Likud and Yisrael Beitenu)
17 [08] Labor
14 [05] Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home-National Union)
11 [10] Shas
11 [---] Yesh Atid
09 [07] The Movement
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
04 [04] Hadash
04 [03] Balad
04 [03] Meretz
03 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
02 [21] Kadima
00 [02] Strong Israel
00 [01] Am Shalem
00 [05] Independence (not running)

66 [65] Right-Religious
54 [55] Center-Left-Arab

Maagar Mochot poll conducted for Maariv that was published on Jan 11 2013.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

38 [42] Likud Beitenu (Likud and Yisrael Beitenu)
16 [08] Labor
13 [05] Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home-National Union)
12 [10] Shas
08 [---] Yesh Atid
07 [07] The Movement
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [03] Meretz
04 [04] Hadash
03 [21] Kadima
03 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
03 [03] Balad
01 [02] Strong Israel
01 [01] Am Shalem
00 [05] Independence (not running)

71 [65] Right-Religious
49 [55] Center-Left-Arab

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