Archive for October, 2012


Dahaf Poll of 500 people conducted on 28-29 October 2012.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets].

37 [42] Likud Beitenu (Likud and Yisrael Beitenu)
23 [08] Labor
15 [--] Yesh Atid
13 [10] Shas
09 [07] Tekum and Jewish Home (7), Hatikva and EYS (2)
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
04 [03] Meretz
04 [04] Hadash
04 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
03 [03] Balad
02 [28] Kadima
00 [05] Independence

65 [65] Right
55 [55] Center-Left

Note: First poll to look at Jewish Home – Tekuma and HaTikva – Erertz Yisrael Shelanu as different parties.

Scenario Poll: Kahalon as Labor #2

Current Knesset seats in [brackets].

32 [42] Likud Beitenu (Likud and Yisrael Beitenu)
32 [08] Labor
14 [--] Yesh Atid
13 [10] Shas
09 [07] Tekum and Jewish Home (7), Hatikva and EYS (2)
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
03 [03] Meretz
04 [04] Hadash
04 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
03 [03] Balad
00 [28] Kadima
00 [05] Independence

60 [65] Right
60 [55] Center-Left

Panels poll conducted for Channel 99 and broadcast on October 29 2012:

Current Knesset seats in [brackets].

35 [42] Likud Beitenu (Likud and Yisrael Beitenu)
23 [08] Labor
16 [--] Yesh Atid
11 [07] National Union – Jewish Home
11 [10] Shas
05 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [03] Meretz
04 [04] Hadash
03 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
03 [03] Balad
03 [01] Am Shalem
00 [28] Kadima
00 [05] Independence

65 [65] Right
55 [55] Center-Left

Teleseker poll of 500 people for Maariv published on October 29 2012.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets].

43 [42] Likud Beitenu (Likud and Yisrael Beitenu)
20 [08] Labor
15 [---] Yesh Atid
10 [11] Shas
08 [07] National Union – Jewish Home
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
04 [28] Kadima
04 [04] Hadash
04 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
03 [03] Meretz
03 [03] Balad
00 [05] Independence

67 [65] Right
53 [55] Center-Left

Scenario Poll: With Olmert-Livni-Mofaz party

Current Knesset seats in [brackets].

42 [42] Likud Beitenu (Likud and Yisrael Beitenu)
18 [08] Labor
14 [---] Yesh Atid
10 [28] Olmert-Livni-Mofaz Party
09 [11] Shas
08 [07] National Union – Jewish Home
05 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
04 [04] Hadash
04 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
03 [03] Meretz
03 [03] Balad
00 [05] Independence

64 [65] Right
56 [55] Center-Left

Knesset Jeremy Weekly Average #3 (week of Oct 21-28) of 3 polls (Panels, Channel 2, Channel 10) conducted after “Biberman” merger:

Current Knesset seats in [brackets], Week 2 average in (brackets)

36.6 (41.2) [42] Likud Beitenu
24.3 (19.7) [08] Labor
13.3 (12.7) [---] Yesh Atid
12 (10.5) [11] Shas
09 (08) [07] National Union-Jewish Home
05.3 (06) [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 (04) [03] Meretz
04 (04) [04] Hadash
03.3 (04) [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
03 (03) [03] Balad
02.6 (06) [28] Kadima
01 (0.7) [05] Independence

63 (66) [65] Right
57 (54) [55] Center-Left

A poll conducted by Maagar Mochot on October 28 2012 was broadcast on Channel 2. 504 people were asked with an error rate of +/- 4%.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets].

42 [42] Likud Beitenu (Likud and Yisrael Beitenu)
23 [08] Labor
13 [11] Shas
09 [---] Yesh Atid
06 [03] Meretz
05 [07] National Union – Jewish Home
05 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
04 [04] Hadash
03 [28] Kadima
03 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
03 [03] Balad
03 [05] Independence

65 [65] Right
55 [55] Center-Left

A poll conducted by Dialogue on October 28 2012 was broadcast on Channel 10.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets].

35 [42] Likud Beitenu (Likud and Yisrael Beitenu)
23 [08] Labor
14 [11] Shas
13 [---] Yesh Atid
09 [07] National Union – Jewish Home
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [28] Kadima
04 [03] Meretz
04 [04] Hadash
04 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
03 [03] Balad
00 [05] Independence

64 [65] Right
56 [55] Center-Left

In the Israeli election cycle public campaign funding is important. The new Likud Beitenu faction will have about double the campaign funding compared to the next three challengers on the list (Shas, Labor and Yesh Atid) together. Likud Beitenu will also enjoy the same ratio of commercial advertisements on national television (Channel 1,2 and 10). The numbers below were reported in Yediot Ahronot on October 28, 2012.

Likud Beitenu 54.6 million shekel
Shas 14.3 million shekel
Labor 10.4 million shekel
Yesh Atid 4 million shekel

Likud 91 min
Shas 29 min
Labor 23 min
Yesh Atid 7 min

Panels Pollitics Polling conducted the first poll following the dramatic Netanyahu – Liberman unity deal and asked 305 people on Oct 25 2012. The results were presented on Channel 2 shortly after midnight.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets].

33 [42] Likud Beitenu (Likud and Yisrael Beitenu)
27 [08] Labor
18 [---] Yesh Atid
13 [07] National Union – Jewish Home
09 [11] Shas
05 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [03] Meretz
04 [04] Hadash
03 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
03 [03] Balad
00 [28] Kadima
00 [05] Independence

60 [65] Right
60 [55] Center-Left

Knesset Jeremy Weekly Average #2 (week of Oct 14-20) of 4 polls (Walla, Arutz Sheva, Haaretz and Globes):

Current Knesset seats in [brackets], Week 1 average in (brackets)

28 (29) [27] Likud
19.7 (19.6) [08] Labor
13.2 (14.1) [15] Yisrael Beitenu
12.7 (13.3) [---] Yesh Atid
10.5 (10.3) [11] Shas
06 (5.3) [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 (5.8) [28] Kadima
04.5 (4.1) [03] Jewish Home
04 (3.8) [04] Hadash
04 (3.5) [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
04 (3.8) [03] Meretz
03.5 (3.1) [04] National Union
03 (3.1) [03] Balad
0.7 (0.6) [05] Independence

66 (66.1) [65] Right
54 (53.8) [55] Center-Left

Smith poll published by Globes on Oct 18 2012. There are two additional scenario polls listed below.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets].

27 [27] Likud
18 [08] Labor
15 [15] Yisrael Beitenu
14 [---] Yesh Atid
11 [11] Shas
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [03] Jewish Home
04 [04] National Union
04 [04] Hadash
04 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
04 [03] Meretz 03
03 [28] Kadima
03 [03] Balad
02 [05] Independence

68 [65] Right
52 [55] Center-Left

Scenario #1: New party with Tzippi Livni at head, another party with Olmert at the head and Deri at head of Shas.

25 [27] Likud
13 [08] Labor
13 [15] Yisrael Beitenu
13 [11] Shas
06 [---] Yesh Atid
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [03] Jewish Home
04 [04] National Union
04 [04] Hadash
04 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
03 [03] Meretz
03 [03] Balad
02 [28] Kadima
00 [05] Independence
07 [---] Olmert and Kadima breakoffs
12 [---] New Livni party

66 [65] Right
54 [55] Center-Left

Scenario 2: Olmert led party with Livni as his #2 along with Kadima breakaways. This scenario also has Shas with Deri at the helm.

25 [27] Likud
16 [08] Labor
14 [15] Yisrael Beitenu
13 [11] Shas
08 [---] Yesh Atid
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [03] Jewish Home
04 [04] National Union
04 [04] Hadash
04 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
04 [03] Meretz
03 [03] Balad
02 [28] Kadima
00 [05] Independence
12 [---] Olmert #1, Livni #2, Kadima breakoffs

67 [65] Right
53 [55] Center-Left

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