Jeremy's Knesset Insider

Panels conducted two polls last weekend for Sof Shavua, the sister paper of the Jerusalem Post.
One poll with the new threshold of 3.25% and one poll with the 2% threshold.

New Threshold (3.25%)

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

36 [31] Likud Beitenu

20 [15] Labor

15 [12] Bayit Yehudi

12 [19] Yesh Atid

11 [06] Meretz

07 [11] Shas

07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

04 [06] Movement

04 [04] Hadash

04 [–] Strong Israel

00 [03] Balad

00 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

00 [02] Kadima

69 [61] Right-Religious

51 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Old Threshold (2%)

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

34 [31] Likud Beitenu

19 [15] Labor

14 [12] Bayit Yehudi

11 [19] Yesh Atid

10 [06] Meretz

07 [11] Shas

07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

04 [06] Movement

04 [04] Hadash

04 [03] Balad

03 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

03 [–] Strong Israel

00 [02] Kadima

65 [61] Right-Religious

55 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: Surprisingly, Strong Israel comes in with 4 mandates in the new poll.
Ra’am-Ta’al, Balad and Kadima do not pass the new threshold. The right-religious block grows to 69 seats under the new threshold, compared to 65 with the old threshold. Panels points out that not everyone is aware of the new threshold and that we do expect merging of the smaller parties in the near future.

Panels conducted a poll that was broadcast by Knesset Channel 99 on Mar 6 2014.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

30 [31] Likud Beitenu

21 [15] Labor

15 [12] Bayit Yehudi

12 [19] Yesh Atid

11 [06] Meretz

08 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

06 [11] Shas

04 [06] Movement

04 [04] Hadash

03 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

03 [03] Balad

03 [–] Strong Israel

00 [02] Kadima

62 [61] Right-Religious

58 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: 9 seat difference. I don’t remember the last poll that had Labor within a single digit margin of Likud Beitenu. Bayit Yehudi rebounds to reclaim third place. UTJ with an interesting 8 seats puts them ahead of Shas. Strong Israel passes the current threshold for the second time this month. Ben Ari said in an interview on Thursday that although he might not run, his Strong Israel Party will run in the next elections despite the planned threshold increase. http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/Flash.aspx/288446#.Uxj4uvnm6T8

Dialogue conducted a poll of 534 people on Feb 24-25, with an error rate of 4.2%, that was published by Haaretz on Feb 28 2014.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

33 [31] Likud Beitenu

16 [15] Labor

14 [19] Yesh Atid

12 [12] Bayit Yehudi

10 [11] Shas

10 [06] Meretz

06 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

05 [06] Movement

05 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

04 [04] Hadash

03 [03] Balad

02 [02] Kadima

61 [61] Right-Religious

59 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Additional Question:

What are the chances you vote for a party led by Moshe Kachalon?
47% For sure will not vote, 22% Don’t know, 24% Maybe vote, 7% For sure vote

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: Main differences from Panels poll this week is that Labor is lower and Shas is higher.

Panels conducted a poll that was broadcast by Knesset Channel 99 on Feb 27 2014.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [31] Likud Beitenu

21 [15] Labor

13 [19] Yesh Atid

13 [12] Bayit Yehudi

10 [06] Meretz

07 [11] Shas

06 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

04 [06] Movement

04 [04] Hadash

04 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

03 [03] Balad

03 [–] Strong Israel

00 [02] Kadima

61 [61] Right-Religious

59 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: Labor gains ground on Likud Beitenu. Bayit Yehudi drops from recent polls and Strong Israel passes the current threshold.

Teleseker conducted a poll for Walla that was published on Feb 11 2014.
They also conducted a scenario poll with Likud and Yisrael Beitenu as separate parties.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

35 [31] Likud Beitenu

15 [19] Yesh Atid

15 [15] Labor

14 [12] Bayit Yehudi

11 [11] Shas

07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

06 [06] Meretz

06 [06] Movement

04 [04] Hadash

04 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

03 [03] Balad

00 [02] Kadima

67 [61] Right-Religious

53 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Scenario Poll: Likud and Yisrael Beitenu as different parties

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

28 [20] Likud

15 [15] Labor

14 [19] Yesh Atid

13 [12] Bayit Yehudi

11 [11] Yisrael Beitenu

10 [11] Shas

06 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

06 [06] Meretz

06 [06] Movement

04 [04] Hadash

04 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

03 [03] Balad

00 [02] Kadima

68 [61] Right-Religious

52 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: Scenario poll shows that both Netanyahu would gain from running without Yisrael Beitenu by ensuring more Likud MKs and raising the Netanyahu-Liberman block, as well as the right block. In the “regular” poll the tie between Labor and Yesh Atid is quite interesting for second place.