Dialogue conducted a poll of 534 people on Feb 24-25, with an error rate of 4.2%, that was published by Haaretz on Feb 28 2014.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
33 [31] Likud Beitenu
16 [15] Labor
14 [19] Yesh Atid
12 [12] Bayit Yehudi
10 [11] Shas
10 [06] Meretz
06 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [06] Movement
05 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
04 [04] Hadash
03 [03] Balad
02 [02] Kadima
61 [61] Right-Religious
59 [59] Center-Left-Arab
Additional Question:
What are the chances you vote for a party led by Moshe Kachalon?
47% For sure will not vote, 22% Don’t know, 24% Maybe vote, 7% For sure vote
Knesset Jeremy Analysis: Main differences from Panels poll this week is that Labor is lower and Shas is higher.
one analysis:
1 from Shas, Yesh Atid to Likud
quite possible
4 from Yesh Atid, 1 from Movement to Meretz (+4), Labor (+1)
ok, but i thought that Meretz would get more in a haaretz (skewed) poll
1 from UTJ to arab party
is this a joke??? typical haaretz poll, wants to give arab parties more power
It is clear by now that the major blocs are what they are and the next election, barring a Bibi defection to the center, will be a turnout election with base turnout determining the balance. Groups to watch will be the secular voters particularly first timers, Arabs and perhaps Haredim. In looking at polls we need to start asking what the assumptions pollsters are making in terms of “likely voters”.