Jeremy's Knesset Insider

Smith conducted a poll that was published by Globes on Jan 31 2014.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

36 [31] Likud Beitenu

17 [15] Labor

12 [19] Yesh Atid

11 [12] Bayit Yehudi

11 [11] Shas

10 [06] Meretz

08 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

04 [06] Movement

11 [11] Hadash, Balad and Ra’am-Ta’al

00 [02] Kadima

66 [61] Right-Religious

54 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: The Smith poll is different than the Panels poll. Smith’s poll was conducted before the “apology” and the Panels poll was conducted afterwards. Smith shows a larger right-religious block than the Panels poll, with higher numbers for Likud Beitenu, Shas & UTJ. Panels poll gives Bayit Yehudi 17 seats and Smith gives Bayit Yehudi 11 seats.

Panels conducted a poll that was broadcast by Knesset Channel 99 on Jan 30 2014.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

30 [31] Likud Beitenu

19 [15] Labor

17 [12] Bayit Yehudi

12 [19] Yesh Atid

11 [06] Meretz

07 [11] Shas

07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

04 [06] Movement

04 [04] Hadash

04 [03] Balad

03 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

02 [02] Kadima

61 [61] Right-Religious

59 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: The clear winner of the Netanyahu-Bennett aftermath is Bennett. Bayit Yehudi gains 5 seats from last week’s Panels poll and Likud Beitenu dropped 4 seats. It is very unusual to see such a change in weekly polls. Another interesting point is that Shas’s slow gradual drop is continuing.

Additional Questions:

Were Minister Bennett’s words against the Prime Minister worthy of being said considering he is a minister in the government?

Not worthy 52%, Worthy 37%

How should Prime Minister Netanyahu respond to Bennett after his comments?

Ignore him 31%, Criticize him 29%, No opinion 23%, Fire him 17%

Do you support the idea of Jewish settlers in Judea and Samaria staying in their places under Palestinian sovereignty?

No 54%, Yes 38%

Which side on your on in the argument between Minister Yaalon and Erdan on the Homefront Defense Ministry?

Erdan 37%, Yaalon 37%, Don’t know 26%

Is it correct for teachers in schools express their political opinions to their students?

No 63% Yes 34%.

How should the Education Ministry treat the teacher Adam Varta for what he said to his students?

Give him a hearing 45%, Do nothing 31%, Fire him 21%

Should schools install metal detectors to deal with violence problems?

Yes 78%, No 17%

Panels conducted a scenario poll that was broadcast by Knesset Channel 99 on Jan 28 2014.

If the Likud prevents Netanyahu from reaching an agreement that involves giving up territory and elections were tomorrow – Who would you vote for?

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

18 [–] New Netanyahu Led Party

17 [20] Likud

16 [15] Labor

16 [12] Bayit Yehudi

11 [06] Meretz

10 [19] Yesh Atid

07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

05 [11] Yisrael Beitenu

05 [11] Shas

04 [06] Movement

04 [04] Hadash

04 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

03 [03] Balad

00 [02] Kadima

50 [61] Right-Religious

70 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: The scenario poll that many KnessetJeremy readers have asked for.  The results – a new Netanyahu party would win the election and become the largest party. This scenario would make the block theory completely irrelevant.

Additional Questions:

Where do the Netanyahu party voters come from?

46% Likud Beitenu, undecided 14%, Labor 11%, Yesh Atid 11%, Meretz 9%, Livni/Movement 9%.

What should Netanyahu do if the Likud opposes a proposed peace agreement?

51% Accept the Likud’s decision (77% among Likud Beitenu voters), 25% Create a new party (7% among Likud Beitenu voters), 24% Don’t know (16% among Likud Beitenu voters).

Times Of Israel released a poll on Jan 23 2014. The poll was conducted on December 26-31 with a representative sample of 802 Israelis and an error rate of 3.5%. The poll was conducted by 202 Strategies with Shvakim Panorama.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

46 [31] Likud Beitenu

18 [15] Labor

13 [19] Yesh Atid

11 [11] Shas

07 [12] Bayit Yehudi

06 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

06 [06] Meretz

05 [06] Movement

00 [02] Kadima

08 [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al and Balad

70 [61] Right-Religious

50 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: The results are three weeks old but the Times of Israel poll is in line with the results of the Channel 1 and 103 FM polls, as opposed to the Panels poll that came out today. Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al and Balad drop of three seats seems very strange to me.