Panels conducted a poll that was broadcast by Knesset Channel 99 on Feb 3 2014.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
30 [31] Likud Beitenu
19 [15] Labor
16 [12] Bayit Yehudi
13 [19] Yesh Atid
11 [06] Meretz
09 [11] Shas
06 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [06] Movement
04 [04] Hadash
04 [03] Balad
03 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
00 [02] Kadima
61 [61] Right-Religious
59 [59] Center-Left-Arab
Knesset Jeremy Analysis: Weekend affect: A few changes from Panels poll that was conducted four days earlier. In this poll Kadima falls under the threshold, UTJ drops a seat and Bayit Yehudi also loses a seat from 17 to 16. Shas gains two seats, Yesh Atid one seat and Livni/Movement one seat as well. 61-59 result between the blocks remains the same.
Additional Questions:
Who do you believe Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu or Minister Naftali Bennett?
37% Bennett (84% of Bayit Yehudi voters), 24% Netanyahu (2% of Bayit Yehudi voters), 39% (14% of Bayit Yehudi voters) Don’t know
Who acted correctly in last week’s brawl?
34% Netanyahu (7% of Bayit Yehudi voters), 33% Bennett (77% of Bayit Yehudi voters), 33% (16% of Bayit Yehudi voters) Don’t know
What grade do you give Minister Naftali Bennett?
37% Bad (3% of Bayit Yehudi voters), 30% Good (75% of Bayit Yehudi voters), 25% Average (20% of Bayit Yehudi voters)
Who is the right person to lead the nationalist camp?
25% Netanyahu, 14% Yaalon, 11% Bennett, 7% Liberman, 30% None of them, 13% Don’t know
Does Bennett’s behavior increase or decrease the chance you will vote for him in the next elections?
53% Doesn’t change, 23% Lower chances, 14% Higher chances
Additional Questions for Bayit Yehudi voters:
Do you regret voting Bayit Yehudi?
80% No, 7% Yes
What made you vote Bayit Yehudi?
55% Views on Defense/Security/Diplomacy, 35% Views on Religion, 10% I don’t know
Which Bayit Yehudi MK best represents you?
24% Naftali Bennett, 17% Uri Orbach, 15% Ayelet Shaked, 5% Orit Struck, 4% Uri Ariel, 2% Nissan Slomiansky. 33% Don’t know or one of the other 6 Bayit Yehudi MKs (Ben-Dahan, Kalfa, Wortzman, Yogev, Chetboun, Muaalam).
Yes, this poll is totally in line with last week’s poll.
One point I in some posts have been trying to make is that I do not know if I like this outlook with a near dead heat between the 2 traditional blocks (involving a “weak” Likud Beiteinu and strong Bayit Yehudi) or a strong right-religious block as in some polls from the past 3 weeks (with a really strong Likud Beiteinu and a weak “traditional-size” (according to some KnessetJeremy readers) Bayit Yehudi).
I think I like the first one more; do now not please jump in the roof, of course I would like a strong right-religious block with Bayit Yehudi as the major party. The reason is:
In all the polls for the second alternative, Likud Beiteinu receives a lot of moderate voices and so the strong nationalist voice weakens and there is more support to make concessions in the peace negotiations. At the same time Bayit Yehudi has weakened, so even less nationalist voices.
On the other hand a weak Likud Beiteinu is (at least for now) mostly nationalist MKs (right now some 25-29/31; is it not right Jeremy?). And at the same time Bayit Yehudi is strong.
So, alternative number 1: result is a nationalist driven right, even in this government one can see that this is a real force, even though not enough powerful I think…
Alternative 2: results in a smaller center but the “right” has become more “center-right” which is less dependent on the nationalists Danon, Feiglin, Hotovely, Bennett, Levin, Elkin etc.
any comment? every still stunned? (the last sentence just a joke…)