Tag Archive: Israeli Elections


Smith Poll of 500 people conducted for JPost/Globes on 29-30 October 2012 with an error of +/- 4/5%.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets].

37 [42] Likud Beitenu (Likud and Yisrael Beitenu)
22 [08] Labor
13 [–] Yesh Atid
12 [10] Shas
09 [07] Jewish Home and National Union
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [03] Meretz
04 [04] Hadash
04 [03] Balad
03 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
03 [28] Kadima
02 [05] Independence

64 [65] Right
56 [55] Center-Left

Additional scenario poll with a new Livni Party shows that “Right Block” would gain a seat and her party would splinter the “Center-Left Block” votes.

Scenario Poll: With new Livni party

Current Knesset seats in [brackets].

36 [42] Likud Beitenu (Likud and Yisrael Beitenu)
20 [08] Labor
12 [10] Shas
10 [–] Yesh Atid
09 [07] Jewish Home and National Union
08 [–] New Livni Party with additional unknown Kadima MKs
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
04 [04] Hadash
04 [03] Meretz
04 [03] Balad
03 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
02 [28] Kadima led by Mofaz
02 [05] Independence

63 [65] Right
57 [55] Center-Left

_______________________________________________________________________

Additional Smith Poll conducted on October 30 for Reshet Bet Radio. 400 people were asked with an error of +/- 4.9%.

Fun tidbits from poll that didn’t check seats:

* 67% of 2009 Likud voters support Likud Beitenu and 73% of Yisrael Beitenu voters support Likud Beitenu.
* 45% of Israelis would vote for Romney and 29% for Obama.

Knesset Jeremy Weekly Average #3 (week of Oct 21-28) of 3 polls (Panels, Channel 2, Channel 10) conducted after “Biberman” merger:

Current Knesset seats in [brackets], Week 2 average in (brackets)

36.6 (41.2) [42] Likud Beitenu
24.3 (19.7) [08] Labor
13.3 (12.7) [—] Yesh Atid
12 (10.5) [11] Shas
09 (08) [07] National Union-Jewish Home
05.3 (06) [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 (04) [03] Meretz
04 (04) [04] Hadash
03.3 (04) [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
03 (03) [03] Balad
02.6 (06) [28] Kadima
01 (0.7) [05] Independence

63 (66) [65] Right
57 (54) [55] Center-Left

A poll conducted by Maagar Mochot on October 28 2012 was broadcast on Channel 2. 504 people were asked with an error rate of +/- 4%.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets].

42 [42] Likud Beitenu (Likud and Yisrael Beitenu)
23 [08] Labor
13 [11] Shas
09 [—] Yesh Atid
06 [03] Meretz
05 [07] National Union – Jewish Home
05 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
04 [04] Hadash
03 [28] Kadima
03 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
03 [03] Balad
03 [05] Independence

65 [65] Right
55 [55] Center-Left

In the Israeli election cycle public campaign funding is important. The new Likud Beitenu faction will have about double the campaign funding compared to the next three challengers on the list (Shas, Labor and Yesh Atid) together. Likud Beitenu will also enjoy the same ratio of commercial advertisements on national television (Channel 1,2 and 10). The numbers below were reported in Yediot Ahronot on October 28, 2012.

Likud Beitenu 54.6 million shekel
Shas 14.3 million shekel
Labor 10.4 million shekel
Yesh Atid 4 million shekel

Likud 91 min
Shas 29 min
Labor 23 min
Yesh Atid 7 min