Jeremy's Knesset Insider

Panels conducted a poll that was broadcast by Knesset Channel 99 on Jan 9 2014.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

34 [31] Likud Beitenu

17 [15] Labor

14 [12] Bayit Yehudi

13 [19] Yesh Atid

10 [06] Meretz

09 [11] Shas

07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

05 [06] Movement

04 [04] Hadash

04 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

03 [03] Balad

00 [02] Kadima

64 [61] Right-Religious

56 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: Likud Beitenu remains stable, as does Labor. Bayit Yehudi and Yesh Atid continue to battle over third and fourth place. Meretz has been dropping recently, losing supporters who are returning to Yesh Aid.

Additional Questions:

Is the Untied States a fair mediator towards Israel in the negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians?

Not fair 53%, Fair 34%

Based on what you know, should Israel accept the American offer for an agreement between Israel and the Palestinians?

Don’t accept 48%, Don’t know 30%, Accept 22%

Do you support the African asylum seekers protest?

Do not support 74%, Support 18%

What policy should Israel take in dealing with African citizens living in Israel illegally?

Whoever is recognized as a refugee can stay, others need to go 55% Send all of them out of Israel 39% Keep them in Israel 5%

Should Israel define “price tag” actions as terrorist attacks with all of the consequences that it mean?

Yes 55%, No 38% (Within Jewish population Yes 49%, No 42%)

Midgam conducted a poll of 500 people that was broadcast by Channel 2 on Jan 5 2014.
Additionally, a scenario poll was taken showing a new Moshe Kachalon led party.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

33 [31] Likud Beitenu

16 [15] Labor

14 [19] Yesh Atid

11 [12] Bayit Yehudi

10 [11] Shas

07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

07 [06] Meretz

07 [06] Movement

04 [04] Hadash

04 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

03 [03] Balad

02 [02] Kadima

02 [–] Strong Israel

63 [61] Right-Religious

57 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: The poll found that a party led by Moshe Kachlon would win 10 seats and twice as many Shas voters prefer Yishai over Deri as party leader. Likud Beitenu remains in lead, Labor still a distant second place.

Other questions:

Are you satisfied with current government? No 65%, Yes 27%
Who is most fit to serve as Prime Minister? Netanyahu 30%, Herzog 11%, Livni 7%, Bennett 6%, Liberman 6%, Lapid 5%
Among Shas voters, who should lead Shas? Yishai 50%, Deri 25%

Scenario Poll Results: Results were only shown of top six parties, it is unclear how it effects block situation.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

30 [31] Likud Beitenu

16 [15] Labor

12 [19] Yesh Atid

10 [12] Bayit Yehudi

10 [–] New Kachalon Party

09 [11] Shas

Panels conducted a poll that was broadcast by the Knesset Channel on Dec 26 2013.

Additionally, Panels released a scenario poll result of a 3.25% threshold.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
33 [31] Likud Beitenu
16 [15] Labor
13 [19] Yesh Atid
13 [12] Bayit Yehudi
11 [06] Meretz
10 [11] Shas
06 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [06] Movement
04 [04] Hadash
03 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
03 [03] Balad
02 [02] Kadima
62 [61] Right-Religious
58 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Panels conducted a scenario poll that was broadcast by the Knesset Channel on Dec 26 2013.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

35 [31] Likud Beitenu
17 [15] Labor
14 [19] Yesh Atid
14 [12] Bayit Yehudi
12 [06] Meretz
11 [11] Shas
07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [06] Movement
04 [04] Hadash (4 is very borderline)
00 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
00 [03] Balad
00 [02] Kadima
67 [61] Right-Religious
53 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: The old traditional blocks are at 62-58 compared to the 60-60 tie in the Midgam poll. The scenario poll with a 3.25% threshold makes a good case for a Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al & Balad merger. The 3.25% threshold would enforce a 4 seat threshold.

Hadash’s high is 5 seats (last reached in 1988). Ra’am’s high is also 5 seats (1999). Balad has never won more than 3 seats.