Panels conducted a series of polls on January 18th 2017 with 517 people that had a 4.3% margin of error. The poll was published by both the Jerusalem Post and Maariv on January 20th 2017. As always, I am providing additional data that did not make it in to the print for all you data geeks out there.
If elections were held today who would you vote for?
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
26 [11] Yesh Atid
23 [30] Likud
13 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
13 [08] Bayit Yehudi
09 [24] Zionist Union
08 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [10] Kulanu
07 [07] Shas
07 [06] Yisrael Beitenu
07 [05] Meretz
65 [67] Current Right-Religious Coalition
55 [53] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition
Scenario Poll #1: Likud led by Naftali Bennett
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
29 [30] Likud led by Bennett
27 [11] Yesh Atid
13 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
09 [24] Zionist Union
08 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [10] Kulanu
07 [07] Shas
07 [06] Yisrael Beitenu
07 [05] Meretz
06 [08] Bayit Yehudi without Bennett
64 [67] Current Right-Religious Coalition
56 [53] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition
Note #1: Placing Naftali Bennett at the head of Likud gives its best showing (29 seats) at the expense of the Bayit Yehudi (6 seats).
Scenario Poll #2: Yaalon as #2 in Yesh Atid
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
30 [11] Yesh Atid w/Yaalon as #2
23 [30] Likud
13 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
13 [08] Bayit Yehudi
08 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [10] Kulanu
07 [07] Shas
07 [06] Yisrael Beitenu
06 [24] Zionist Union
06 [05] Meretz
65 [67] Current Right-Religious Coalition
55 [53] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition
Note #2: 3 of 4 seats that Yesh Atid picks up is from Zionist Union.
Scenario Poll #3: Ashkenazi as #2 in Yesh Atid
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
27 [11] Yesh Atid w/Ashkenazi as #2
23 [30] Likud
13 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
12 [08] Bayit Yehudi
08 [24] Zionist Union
08 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
08 [06] Yisrael Beitenu
07 [10] Kulanu
07 [07] Shas
07 [05] Meretz
65 [67] Current Right-Religious Coalition
55 [53] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition
Note #3: Yesh Atid’s extra seat comes from the Zionist Union.
Scenario #4: New Yaalon Party
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
24 [11] Yesh Atid
23 [30] Likud
13 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
11 [08] Bayit Yehudi
08 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
08 [–] New Yaalon Party
07 [24] Zionist Union
07 [07] Shas
07 [06] Yisrael Beitenu
06 [10] Kulanu
06 [05] Meretz
70 [67] Current Right-Religious Coalition + Yaalon Party
50 [53] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition
Note #4: Yaalon’s 8 seats come mostly from the center-left parties Yesh Atid (4) and Zioninst Union (2).
Scenario #5: Ashkenazi as leader of Labor
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
24 [30] Likud
22 [11] Yesh Atid
15 [24] Zionist Union led by Ashkenazi
13 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
11 [08] Bayit Yehudi
08 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
08 [06] Yisrael Beitenu
07 [07] Shas
06 [10] Kulanu
06 [05] Meretz
64 [67] Current Right-Religious Coalition
56 [53] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition
Note #5: Only scenario with Zionist Union in double digits. Majority of votes is at the expense of Yesh Atid (4 seats).
Additional Questions:
If Prime Minister Netanyahu resigns and announces elections, of the following people who is most worthy to serve as Prime Minister?
22% None, 21% Lapid, 12% Bennett, 10% Don’t know, 7% Saar, 6% Yaalon, 4% Livni, 3% Liberman, 3% Erdan, 3% Kahlon, 3% Ashkeneazi, 3% Herzog, 2% Y. Katz
Note #6 – Right Voters:
25% None, 20% Bennett, 11% Lapid, 10% Don’t know, 9% Saar, 6% Erdan, 4% Liberman, 4% Kahlon, 4% Ashkenazi, 3% Y. Katz, 3% Yaalon, 1% Herzog, 0% Livni
Note #7 – Center Voters:
39% Lapid, 17% None, 9% Don’t know, 8% Saar, 6% Yaalon, 6% Herzog, 5% Livni, 4% Bennett, 2% Y. Katz, 1% Liberman, 1% Kahlon, 1% Ashkenazi, 0% Erdan
Note #8 – Left voters:
25% Lapid, 18% None, 16% Livni, 11% Yaalon, 10% Herzog, 9% Ashkenazi, 7% Don’t know, 4% Kahlon, 1% Saar, 0% Bennett, 0% Liberman, 0% Erdan, 0% Y. Katz
What if Prime Minister Netanyahu resigns from his party, who of the Likud Ministers in the past and present is most worthy to stand at the head of Likud?
18% Saar, 16% None, 16% Don’t know, 10% Erdan, 10% Yaalon, 9% Kahlon, 7% Y. Katz, 5% Edelstein, 4% Regev, 2% Dichter, 1% Elkin, 1% Levin, 1% Steinitz, 1% Hanegbi, 1% H. Katz, 1% Gamliel, 0% Akunis
Note #9 – Likud voters:
16% Erdan, 13% Saar, 13% Don’t know, 12% None, 10% Regev, 10% Y. Katz, 7% Kahlon, 6% Steinitz, 4% Edelstein, 4% Yaalon, 1% Dichter, 1% Hanegbi, 1% Akunis, 0% Elkin, 0% Levin, 0% H. Katz, 1% Gamliel
Do you think that the allegations towards Prime Minister Netanyahu are based [on something]?
57% Yes, 28% No, 15% Don’t know
One of the possibilities is that Benjamin Netanyahu will announce new elections where he will put himself up for the judgment of the court of public opinion that will decide if he is worthy or not worthy to serve as Prime Minister. If this happens the legal proceedings against him will end. Do you think a move like that is worthy or not worthy?
56% Not worthy, 27% Worthy, 17% Don’t know
Updated Note #10: The KJPA has been updated to include the poll: https://knessetjeremy.com/knessetjeremy-polling-average-the-israeli-poll-of-polls/
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 