Statnet (former Dialog) conducted a poll of 615 people with a 3.9% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 10 on Dec 30 2016.
If elections were held today who would you vote for?
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
27 [11] Yesh Atid
23 [30] Likud
12 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
12 [08] Bayit Yehudi
10 [06] Yisrael Beitenu
08 [24] Zionist Union
08 [07] Shas
07 [10] Kulanu
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [05] Meretz
67 [67] Current Right-Religious Coalition
53 [53] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition
31% My vote could still change
Who is the most suited to be Prime Minister?
27% Netanyahu
22% None
15% Lapid
11% Don’t know
9% Yaalon
7% Bennett
5% Herzog
4% Barak
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
Hi,
Hope your Chanukah was joyful. I know you are a Bayit Yehudi guy, but your analysis seeks to be as objective as possible. TOI story on poll never explained how Lapid would get to 61. Putting aside investigation of Netanyahu, how does Lapid get to 61 without Joint List, given mutual anathema with religious parties? Even with Yisrael Beitenu, he’s still short a few seats. Moreover, he’ll run a strong security campaign, but may fudge on outposts, will oppose dividing Jerusalem– my uneducated guess — I’m here in U.S. Note, while I’m somewhat to left of you -like Oren a lot– I am not one of those Diaspora Jews who thinks I’m more “moral” or a better Jew than those like you who are there. If I lived in Israel, I’m not sure how I’d vote. A different life experience. A Happy 2017 to you.
Take care, Thom
It seems Yesh Atid could form a coalition with:
– Bayit Yehudi
– Yisrael Beitenu
– Zionist Union
– Kulanu
Thus totaling 64 seats. That’s not mentioning Shas which will probably jump the boat too.
Gosh you really believe this!
A number of important points here.
1) If Netanyahu is forced to resign that would not trigger new elections. It is very possible that a Likud Minister (Erdan, Katz, etc) takes over and the current coalition stays in place. It is the Knesset that needs to vote for an early election. The government just passed a biannual budget through the end of 2018.
2) There is no logical coalition for Lapid to reach 61 in this poll. It would require a number of unnatural alliances. It is always possible to create unnatural alliances, but it is not as likely as the natural partners sticking together. It is a 3-phase process for electing a Prime Minister and winning the first phase is not enough. It is possible, but I don’t see Deri, Bennett or Liberman choosing Lapid over Netanyahu in Phase 2.
3) As Yehoshua pointed out on Twitter, this poll repeats the 67-53 result from the previous election. All of the movement is within the two blocs. Lapid gains 16 seats at the expense of the Zionist Union losing 16 seats. So the real question in the poll is – did Lapid win these seats or did Herzog lose them? Based on the PM follow-up question, I lean towards believing that Herzog lost them.
4) It is possible that after the Labor Party Leadership Primary in the summer that a different candidate replaces Herzog. That could change the gap between the two major players in the opposition. It looks like both Ashkenazi and Gantz will sit out and miss the deadline. With no clear favorite I predict that there will be a lot of candidates and that it will require a second round of primary voting. Based on previous Labor Party Primaries it is difficult to predict the winner of a 2-round system until after the 1st round is completed.
One question, if there were a new government in 2017 could modify the budget already approved for 2018?
Todah rabah
yes, if a majority votes to modify.
polls showing Lapid wining the most seat are in my view garbage. The only thing I find of interest is the there is actually no change, just different distributions amongst the voters on the centre right and centre left. In a real election I have no doubt that ZU will poll a great deal more and and YA a great deal less
Thanks, edit it keeping main data and information intact whatever you like best.
On Dec 31, 2016 10:11 PM, “Jeremy’s Knesset Insider” wrote:
> Knesset Jeremy posted: “Statnet (former Dialog) conducted a poll of 615 > people with a 3.9% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 10 on Dec > 30 2016. If elections were held today who would you vote for? Current > Knesset seats in [brackets] 27 [11] Yesh Atid 23 [30] Likud” >
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