202 conducted a poll for Times of Israel that was published on Jan 7 2013
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
34 [42] Likud Beitenu (Likud and Yisrael Beitenu)
21 [08] Labor
15 [05] Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home-National Union)
11 [—] Yesh Atid
10 [10] Shas
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [03] Meretz
05 [07] The Movement (Livni Party)
04 [04] Hadash
04 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
04 [03] Balad
00 [21] Kadima
00 [02] Strong Israel
00 [01] Am Shalem
00 [05] Independence (not running)
*Arab Parties listed at 12, I’m assuming all are 4 each, could be wrong. Will fix when I get the full results.
65 [65] Right-Religious
55 [55] Center-Left-Arab


Jeremy: The Times of Israel poll specifically mentioned that 31% of the voters are undecided. So all the numbers are projections based on real numbers which are 31% less for each party. A 31% undecided spread at this time before the election is a volatile percentage. Most of those undecided voters are likely moving further to the right. Labor and Kadima voters will now shift to Likud. And many Likud voters will likely vote now for Bayit Yehudi. The shift is on, and voters are thinking about their shift rightward.
I really need to see full results before making any anaylsis.
This is a poll of only 202 people – I’d hate to know what the margin of error was. Who puts out a poll with such a small sample size?
That’s the name of the pollster. They actually polled over 800 likely voters. Larger than usual
The analysis of this polls states that the undecided voters actually lean the other way.
http://www.timesofisrael.com/two-weeks-before-election-day-huge-31-of-likely-voters-are-still-undecided-times-of-israel-poll-reveals/
Actually, from my understanding of how polling sampling works, The Times of Israel is saying that more center-left people than center-right people are undecided in this election. This means that the center-left population is changing its mind or confused right now. Now they may end up voting for the center-left or left wing party that they have voted for in the past. Yet, many will likely shift rightward. After the Gaza “surrender” in order to live within the world’s rules of military engagement, there are a lot of left leaning people who are rethinking whether it is a good idea to have our rules of engagement defined by world public opinion. They would rather follow a system of rules which allows us to actually win wars when we are bombarded with missiles. They have not yet concluded that they would rather follow “G-d’s rules of engagement” rather than humanity’s rules. But Bayit Yehudi beckons for them to at least think about it. The thought of taking on an entire world which might be totally wrong because it usually is wrong anyway is frightening for Leftists. “I lift up my eyes onto the mountains, from where will my help come?” It is scary to think about that, and it causes much confusion for those who don’t believe that G-d would actually side with them against the entire world.
Well, that’s all very nice Dov, but that’s sheer speculation on your part. Not objective evidence that “many will likely shift rightward.” A better bet is that they haven’t made their mind up which center-left party to support because of the parties’ overlap and redundancy.