Teleseker conducted a poll of 500 people with an error rate of +/- 2 seats for Walla that was published 18 December 2012
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
37 [42] Likud Beitenu (Likud and Yisrael Beitenu)
17 [08] Labor
12 [—] Yesh Atid
11 [10] Shas
11 [05] Jewish Home-National Union
10 [07] The Movement (Livni Party)
05 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
04 [03] Meretz
03 [04] Hadash
03 [03] Balad
02 [21] Kadima
00 [02] Strong Israel
00 [01] Am Shalem
00 [05] Independence
00 [00] Hayisraelim
64 [65] Right
56 [55] Center-Left
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
i believe that Netanyahu wont be able to form coalition without the religious parties whether the Haredi or the orthodox parties, lets take the first EX: (Likud , Haredi and Livni ) , it is difficult because Livni has some problems with the Haredim and many differences with Netanyahu over the peace process and the talks with the PA , the second EX:( LIkud , Haredi and Labor), Labor cant sit with Likud due to the differences over the peace process and the social issues , the third EX: ( Likud , Haredi and Lapid ) , it will very difficult because Lapid differences with the Haredi over the religion and state issues and with the Likud over the peace process , so Netanyahu will be forced to form a right wing government with the religious bloc ( Likud , Jewish Home , and the Haredim ) Netanyahu will face a small problem over the enlistment of the Haredim in the army but on the other issues , i believe there will be agreement , especially over the diplomatic and social issues
Oh, he could do it, it just depends if he wants to and if The Jewish Home is prepared to sit in a government with The Movment and Yesh Atid. Bibi could get enough votes with these parties:
Likud/YB + The Jewish Home + Livni + Yesh Atid + Am Shalem. I’m just not sure he wants that group, though.
Jewish Home isn’t Orthodox? What are they, Reform?
What exactly are the differences between Livni and Likud on social or defense issues? As far as I can tell, Livni’s core beliefs are that she wants to be Prime Minister. That was a serious question, by the way.
the jewish home is a religious zionist party represents the orthodox public , but the party tries to court secular and traditional voters , there is a difference between orthodox and ultra-orthodox in their style of life , state and religion issues and also the orthodox jews are more zionist than the ultra-orthodox or the haredim
there is a big diference between Likud and Livni when it comes to security and diplomatic issues , for example the likud party is against the two state solution , in favor of settlemenets in Judea and Samaria or the west bank and east Jerusalem , while Livni is in favor of the two state solution in which Israel leaves all the isolated settlements but only control the large blocs , also she is in favor of giving up the arab neighborhoods in Jerusalem to the PA , on the social issues ,Livni is against the Haredim control , she is always supporter of the secular public , LG (lesbians and gays) rights and so on , she will support any anti Haredim move , also she supports to civil marriage and refused the orthodox monopoly over the conversion process , on economy Livni is moderate , she is not like Netanyahu or even Yechomovich but i believe with Peretz in the party , she will move to the left, although Livni may have some idealogy but she is selfish , she just wants to be PM
As a Chareidi myself, I will try to “correct” some of the statements above, from my perspective:
1. Of course, my main point was that Bayit Yehdu is Orthodox. The term is sometimes misused to mean Chareidi, although in France it really does. Actually, using the traditional American definition (someone who goes to an Orthodox synagogue when they decide to use a sysagogue), the Jewish population is 80% – 90% Orthodox. And although the Conservative movement tried to hijack the term, the Masorati/traditional Jews are clearly Orthodox.
2. Ultra-Orthodox is simply a prejorative term for Chareidi, although in the 1940’s the New York Times used it to refer to Mizrachi (the progenitors of Jewish Home).
3. I think it is pretty clear that a large percentage, perhaps the majority of the voters of the Chareidi party Shas are not Chareidi, and a large percentage are not religousl. True, some of the Jewish Home list are traditional rather than religious, including Bennet’s partner in that wonderful organization Yirael Sheli (MyIsraelHE on YouTube, recommended.)
4. I would say that regarding “state and religion” Jewish Home is, if anything, more interested than the Chareidi parties, given that they made a coalition with Lapid’s father’s anti-religious party in order to prevent civil marriage. But certainly there are differences, although I haven’t seen a single religious social law passed since reading Jeremy’s blog.
Just one correction on Likud. The official Likud position is for the two-state solution. YB was always for it, and the Chareidi parties are relatively pacificst (just not unrealistic).
no, the platform of the likud is against the two state solution, also the majority of the party members, in the central committee and the knesset members are against the two state solution, can u tell me when Netanyahu decided to leave Judea and Samaria , who will in the Likud supports him ?? Saar ? NO Erdan ? NO Yaalon ? NO Hotovely ?? NO and so on, Netanyahu said he supports a demilitraized PA state in 2009 Bar illan sppech, just to inflate the US pressure and to maintain the relations with the US and to overcome the leftist media pressure and criticism , but Netanyahu himself doesnt believe in the two state solution , when he invites Livni or the labor party to the coalition , they will ask him what are you going to do to enter the talks with the PA ?? if they entered they will pressure him to make concessions to bring Abbas to the talks and that means another freeze in the construction in Jerusalem and Judea and Samaria , who in the likud will accept that ??!!!
the jewish home list made of both traditional and religious members, to court the both camp voters , the jewish home stance on the religion and state matters is more moderate than that of the haredi parties , so they can sit with Lapid as the Mafdal did that in 2003 when they joined Sharon government with Lapid father the late Tommy Lapid, well which party are you going to vote ??