Panels conducted a poll that was broadcast by Knesset Channel 99 on Mar 6 2014.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
30 [31] Likud Beitenu
21 [15] Labor
15 [12] Bayit Yehudi
12 [19] Yesh Atid
11 [06] Meretz
08 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [11] Shas
04 [06] Movement
04 [04] Hadash
03 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
03 [03] Balad
03 [–] Strong Israel
00 [02] Kadima
62 [61] Right-Religious
58 [59] Center-Left-Arab
Knesset Jeremy Analysis: 9 seat difference. I don’t remember the last poll that had Labor within a single digit margin of Likud Beitenu. Bayit Yehudi rebounds to reclaim third place. UTJ with an interesting 8 seats puts them ahead of Shas. Strong Israel passes the current threshold for the second time this month. Ben Ari said in an interview on Thursday that although he might not run, his Strong Israel Party will run in the next elections despite the planned threshold increase. http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/Flash.aspx/288446#.Uxj4uvnm6T8
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
this poll looks much better from a right-wing perspective
Maybe, maybe not. It could be a disaster for the right. If Otzma 100% refuses to sit in any government where there are negotiations (or more accurately, negotiations over the negotiations) then Bibi will likely have to look elsewhere for a coalition. He can’t do Likud-BY-Yesh Atid-Movement again because it would only give him a narrow 61 seats. A right/religious coalition of 62 means the Haredi issue is probably shelved (which strengthens Lapid in opposition) and no talks with the Arabs (which means increased international pressure over his “radical” government), and the possibility of the smallest party being able to torpedo the coalition at any moment.
A coalition between Likud-Labor-Yesh Atid-Movement (67 seats total) becomes much more likely. Bayit Yehudi and Otzma would be excluded. If Bibi feels trapped by a three-seat party or by Bennett or by Deri he might find it less distasteful to cozy up to Herzog, Livni and Lapid. That would be a nightmare for the right. Whether Likud nationalists would allow that is another story but if they have no viable alternative then there’s no choice. This is why my own personal view is that a party to the right of Bayit Yehudi doesn’t strengthen the right’s spine but makes dividing and conquering much, much easier. But egos always trump unity in muliti-party states.
well, sure you make a good point. just meant that it is better when the hareidim-part of right-religious bloc weakens and the right part gets stronger, especially BY. Yeh, for sure there is this problem with otzma. But lets then hope that the electoral reform gets through and otzma never gets in (as with some arab parties and hopefully also livni)
Changing electoral rules is as always a tricky thing with a bunch of unintended consequences a real possibility. To name but a few: a single Arab oriented slate that could drive increased Arab turnout; the defection of bayit yehudi voters to Strong Israel on the theory that two settler focused parties are always better than one; an opposite phenomenon in the center with a coming together of Yesh atid, tnuah and the kadima remnants. Note also that there is greater short term increased turnout potential within groups demographically leaning to the center-left than the right. Depending how the present government ends it’s days it can be a wild campaign and election nite. And of course will this Knesset outlast a Peres Presidency?