Teleseker conducted a poll for Walla that was published on Feb 11 2014.
They also conducted a scenario poll with Likud and Yisrael Beitenu as separate parties.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
35 [31] Likud Beitenu
15 [19] Yesh Atid
15 [15] Labor
14 [12] Bayit Yehudi
11 [11] Shas
07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [06] Meretz
06 [06] Movement
04 [04] Hadash
04 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
03 [03] Balad
00 [02] Kadima
67 [61] Right-Religious
53 [59] Center-Left-Arab
Scenario Poll: Likud and Yisrael Beitenu as different parties
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
28 [20] Likud
15 [15] Labor
14 [19] Yesh Atid
13 [12] Bayit Yehudi
11 [11] Yisrael Beitenu
10 [11] Shas
06 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [06] Meretz
06 [06] Movement
04 [04] Hadash
04 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
03 [03] Balad
00 [02] Kadima
68 [61] Right-Religious
52 [59] Center-Left-Arab
Knesset Jeremy Analysis: Scenario poll shows that both Netanyahu would gain from running without Yisrael Beitenu by ensuring more Likud MKs and raising the Netanyahu-Liberman block, as well as the right block. In the “regular” poll the tie between Labor and Yesh Atid is quite interesting for second place.
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
the scenario poll shows more Likud MKs, but that is hardly a “Netanyahu gain”, in internal Likud dynamics the stronger the faction and any other Likud institution (Central committee, secretariat, general membership) the weaker the chairman/prime minister is, or if not weaker then certainly more pressured. And of course, all of those institutions are to the right of Netanyahu’s two state vision. Which is why Netanyahu is not jumping to new elections now – he isn’t encouraged by the scenario Right Religious bloc, he is terrified of it.
Well, if you look at the change from the election, the extra seats for Likud Beiteinu and Bayit Yehudi comes from Kadima (out here) and Yesh Atid. The seats going to Bayit Yehudi are of course positive, but how positive the seats going to Likud Beiteinu are, is quite a question mark. One could suspect that the 4 seats are “moderate right” and pro-2-states-solution, so that would not be positive at all. But if Danon, Hotovely, Feiglin etc. would be able to “control” these persons then I am all for it… But if the”nationalist”-majority in the Likud institutions is diminished, then I do not know.
In the second poll, it is interesting to see that in addition to the 7 seats from Kadima and Yesh Atid there moves 1 seat /party (Bayit Yehudi, Shas, UTJ) to Likud Beiteinu. Wonder why…
Overall, as you might have read my comments to the last post (the Panels poll) I am a little afraid of these polls where right-religious get 66-70 seats because that often means that Bayit Yehudi suffers and to some part also the nationalist bloc inside Likud Beiteinu. That means that more moderate guys come in (moderate like that Moshe Kahlon, Dan Meridor, Benny Begin etc.) which can enable Netanyahu to withdraw from some part of the land. Also this change can block any chance of a nationalist like Danon taking over the chairmanship and an right-wing alliance (Likud-Bayit Yehudi-Yisrael Beiteinu) which would be led by Danon-style Likudniks, Bennett and Shamir-style Yisrael Beiteinu guys.
BUT good in this poll is that as the right-religious bloc gains (even up to 68 seats) Bayit Yehudi at the same time gains.
I think you are not paying attention to how those new Likud MKs get there. It is true, they get voted in by people who voted Kadima and Yesh Atid in the previous elections, and those voters are willing to vote Likud because of Bibi’s centrist leanings, but the new MKs will have gotten on the list through primaries, so they will be yet more Danons and Hotuvelys imho.
Thanks תודה and God Bless, Gidon Ariel gidon.ariel@gmail.com גדעון אריאל cell 054-5665037, home 02-5354586, USA (VoIP) 516-321-1846 Israel fax 1532-5354586, USA fax 623-433-4874 Maale Hever, DN Har Hebron 90420 Israel מעלה חבר, ד”נ הר חברון “Happy are those who have discovered that the secret of life is to be nice to others”
Of course that could be the case, but
1. what if they take part in the primary (and encourage more voters like them to do that) and in that way make the list more centrist?
2. let’s say they do not take part in the primary. Then in the general election they see the list and decides that in the end they do not want to vote for this “extremist”-list (as it is often called in the media).
Regardless of above; what garantees are there that they would support Danon for chairman or co-chairman in a common list for Likud/Bayit Yehudi/Yisrael Beiteinu? Or would they vote for a Danon-Bennett led list? (which would be the best possible list)
1. It would be very surprising if centrist forces would be able to succeed in a mifkad to get enough people to overcome the very strong rightist forces that are strong and growing. Omri Sharon is out of the game last I’d heard..
Kadima and Yesh Atid voters are not the mitpakeding kind..
2. Yes, that is the media’s strategy, but it is not a probability imho.
3. You’re going far in fantasizing a common ultra-right list with Likud and Tekuma, you may be thinking of a post-Bibi Likud. In that case, Danon might have two or three senior Likud loyalists (sic) before him, one with high army boots I’m thinking of, for example:-)
Finally, your “best possible list” is a right winger’s dream, but is it electable in today’s Israel? I’d like to see some polls…
Thanks תודה and God Bless, Gidon Ariel gidon.ariel@gmail.com גדעון אריאל cell 054-5665037, home 02-5354586, USA (VoIP) 516-321-1846 Israel fax 1532-5354586, USA fax 623-433-4874 Maale Hever, DN Har Hebron 90420 Israel מעלה חבר, ד”נ הר חברון “Happy are those who have discovered that the secret of life is to be nice to others”
On Wed, Feb 12, 2014 at 9:35 AM, Jeremy’s Knesset Insider wrote:
> g M commented: “Of course that could be the case, but 1. what if they > take part in the primary (and encourage more voters like them to do that) > and in that way make the list more centrist? 2. let’s say they do not take > part in the primary. Then in the general election” >
comment to point 1: yes, it would be strange such a power grab; but on the other hand you never know what Bibi is planning with Lieberman (think of his 180 degree change in favor of Kerry), that might be a trick to at some point in the coming years(when Lapid has failed even) more get a massive centrist flood into Likud Beiteinu.
You know it is easy to think that this would not happen, but Lieberman’s stance on the diplomatic issue kind of cam as a surprise (of course one always knew that he never has been a true nationalist but go this far? something strange is going on there). Of course the plan could be to get him elected leader of Likud Beiteinu and bring in the “centrists” with praise for him from Steinitz, Kahlon, Netanyahu, Saar etc.
comment to point 3: of course I am talking about a post-Bibi Likud. A Likud where the moderates would take the place the nationalists long held (i.e. the under-dog position within the party and with regard to those holding powerful postions outside the party).
About the electability of such a list: look at the poll several weeks ago (the one with a new netanyahu party). Of course that is not exactly this scenario but it gives some hints. And look at the comments there. If I remember correct: add Bayit Yehudi, Likud, Yisrael Beiteinu, Shas and UTJ together in one bloc (50 seats, let’s say they keep together after the election. and then assume that arab parties wont join a Netanyahu coalition. then he wont have a majority. But if Netanyahu would stay in Likud (in kind of the background) then many of those 18 seats would stay in right-religious bloc despite Netanyahu, Liberman not being in charge.
So, who knows?
One trend I keep seeing in these polls is that Bayit Yehudi is the new kingmaker party. Shas no longer can claim to occupy the position due to its own inflexibility. If Bayit Yehudi-Shas-UTJ ally (informally and temporarily after the election) then Likud’s only option is putting them in a coalition. They’d have 32 seats in the first poll and 29 in the second poll. Netanyahu wouldn’t have enough mandates between Likud, Yesh Atid and Movement for a majority. It would be 56. But even looking at the second poll, Netanyahu still wouldn’t have a majority if Lieberman’s party runs separately. It’d only be 59 if the coalition was Likud-Yesh Atid- Movement-Israel Beitenu.
There are two key things that seem to limit Likud’s flexibility (aside from internal party disagreements):
1) Yesh Atid and the Haredi refuse to sit in a coalition together. They are either/or.
2) Herzog (somewhat comically) believes himself to be a Prime Minister in waiting. The last time Labor was in a coalition with Likud, the party suffered a civil war and a split, so they are keen to avoid a repeat. There is an off-chance that there could be a Likud-Labor-Shas-UTJ coalition, but I wouldn’t hold my breath. Chances are, the Likud rank-and-file (and Labor rank-and-file for that matter) would nix it quickly.
In other words, Likud must include Bayit Yehudi in order to have a realistic majority. Bennett has a lot of leverage and is probably smart enough to realize it. Bayit Yehudi can ally with Yesh Atid again (like 2013) OR ally with the Haredi (which the nationalists have traditionally done) and Likud will have to swallow it. Added to this, the Haredi parties know that Likud and Bayit Yehudi are not afraid to exclude them, so I would expect much more conciliatory gestures from them around election time lest there is another “godless” coalition between Bibi, Bennett, and Lapid. I increasingly think that the merging of NU, Jewish Home, Tkuma, and Moledet parties into one party with a clear name and clear message was a brilliant political move. Here’s hoping rightists stop throwing their votes away on non-threshold parties. Bibi is the king for the foreseeable future but it looks like Bennett is going to be the kingmaker.
Bennett ruined any possible chance of the Haredim allying with Beit Yehudi when he stubbornly sided with Lapid against the Haredim.
The Haredim are not forgetful, and they will not quickly forgive the Bennett-Lapid anti-Haredi alliance.
Perhaps if someone other than Bennett took over Beit Yehudi things would be different, but Haredi trust in a Beit Yehudi under Bennett is basically zero.
Whether the Haredi trust Bennett or not or “forgive” him is immaterial. I doubt they trust Netanyahu or Herzog or Livni. The political reality is that the Haredi parties have diminished leverage; they’ve utterly lost the argument over military service with 75% of the population. Going through Bayit Yehudi is their only way back since Shas/UTJ will not be in the same coalition with Yesh Atid and vice versa. It’s not as if they can join with Labor-Movement-Meretz-Arab parties either; they still wouldn’t have the numbers for a coalition in such an impractical grouping. If they don’t want to play ball like petulant children, then it’s another Likud-Bayit Yehudi-Yesh Atid alliance in 2015 with Shas/UTJ in opposition. No juicy portfolios. No say in the new inevitable draft/workplace integration/yeshiva laws. No skin off Bibi or Bennett’s nose, but it would be a disaster for Deri- a recently returned leader (forcibly reappointed as the head of Shas) who promises big results (like replacing the mayor of Jerusalem) but is unpopular even within his own party (compared to Yishai and Attias). In fact, Bayit Yehudi would be doing Deri a huge favor by allying with him. Excluding the Hareidi from the coalition is one of the most popular things the current coalition has done. Bennett’s not magically disappearing anytime soon; nobody in Bayit Yehudi is clamoring for a return of Katz, Eldad or Ben-Ari. The longer Shas and UTJ are out of power, the more their voters will either stop showing up at the polls or slowly start to drift into other parties. Many of this website’s polls (though not this particular one) have shown a small downward trend for the Haredi parties of 2-3 seats. Finally, the longer they are out of power, the more likely a challenge against Deri’s authority from Yishai and Attias; over 50% of Shas voters prefer Yishai compared to 25% for Deri, the other 25% are unsure. As I’ve said, Bayit Yehudi is the kingmaker now- not Shas/UTJ. Shas/UTJ needs Bayit Yehudi. Bayit Yehudi (and Likud by extension) doesn’t need Shas/UTJ.
I wonder when the Likud rebellion will come and how it will affect the polling numbers for the right. At least Tzipi Hotovely in a Arutz Sheva interview said that the majority or Likud MKs would be part of this. Add also the fact that Danon (the Likud central committee) has gone to court to make Bibi convene the convention. Maybe the time starts to come and hopefully the convention could do something about the chairmanship vote in Likud…