Times Of Israel released a poll on Jan 23 2014. The poll was conducted on December 26-31 with a representative sample of 802 Israelis and an error rate of 3.5%. The poll was conducted by 202 Strategies with Shvakim Panorama.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
46 [31] Likud Beitenu
18 [15] Labor
13 [19] Yesh Atid
11 [11] Shas
07 [12] Bayit Yehudi
06 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [06] Meretz
05 [06] Movement
00 [02] Kadima
08 [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al and Balad
70 [61] Right-Religious
50 [59] Center-Left-Arab
Knesset Jeremy Analysis: The results are three weeks old but the Times of Israel poll is in line with the results of the Channel 1 and 103 FM polls, as opposed to the Panels poll that came out today. Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al and Balad drop of three seats seems very strange to me.
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
1) this included 10 percent calls in Arabic just like we did last time when almost every other poll you publish includes 0 Arabs. Your strange comment is because this is more accurate and this poll shows more apathy – Indeed 40% Of these arab Israelis who voted in the last election said they wouldn’t vote this time2. We kept likud beytenu together – didn’t test separate because it’s hypothetical. And people have short memory – likud and beytenu in 09 together was 42 seats.Before you publish a comment – please ask. It’s strange to you because you’re not a pollster and didn’t see the data. This survey might be the most accurate sample of a political poll ever conducted in Israel.SM From: Jeremy’s Knesset InsiderSent: Thursday, January 23, 2014 7:43 PMTo: miller.cell@gmail.comReply To: Jeremy’s Knesset InsiderSubject: [New post] Times of Israel Poll: Likud Beitenu 46, Labor 18, Yesh Atid 13, Shas 11
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Knesset Jeremy posted: “Times Of Israel released a poll on Jan 23 2014. The poll was conducted on December 26-31 with a representative sample of 802 Israelis and an error rate of 3.5%. The poll was conducted by 202 Strategies with Shvakim Panorama.
They also conducted a scena”
Most poll Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al and Balad, as Channel 1 and 99 did this week, although you are right that many of them, such as Channel 99, don’t ask in Arabic.
The scenario line was a copy-paste from the Channel 1 format, I updated the post.
It is true that I didn’t see the data. Before elections I asked for your previous poll and for whatever reasons David didn’t want to release it to me, which is fine. Many polling companies forward me their results after they are published but some choose not to do so, and that is ok.
I am not a pollster but I have phrased questions for multiple parties & polling companies before. As an analyst I am limited by the information I have in front of me.
so, you mean that you can clearly see Bayit Yehudi voters going to Likud Beiteinu?
And how about Yesh Atid voters? are some going to Likud Beiteinu? did you in the polling ask why if that were the case?
could these be reason to Likud Beiteinu’s surge:
1. centrist voters want to encourage Netanyahu to write under a peace agreement and for that reason supports Likud
2. right-wingers from Bayit Yehudi want to support the Likud nationalists and therefore votes Likud Beiteinu
please, comment
These are just interesting questions so here’s my 2 cents:
As far as the possibility that centrist voters want to encourage a peace agreement by voting Likud: the level of dissatisfaction and apathy with the Arabs and the negotiations is as high as it has ever been if polling is to be believed. I think it is more likely that people see Netanyahu as the only statesman with any business being prime minister and Likud as the only party that can navigate the treacherous diplomatic and security waters. Plus the average “centrist” voter has more right-wing views than left wing at this point. They might support 2 states and populist economic policies, but they want an undivided Jerusalem, recognition of Israel as a Jewish State, an annexation of the Jordan Valley, and a maintenance of major settlements to say nothing about the Golan Heights… not exactly doves.
Regarding Bayit Yehudi’s loss of support: The “ultra-nationalists” (or whatever the press derisively calls them) might have an equilibrium closer to 7 seats than their current 12.
In 2009: 4 mandates for the NU and 3 Mandates for Jewish Home.
In 2006: NU and National Religious Party= 9 seats.
In 2003: NU (headed by Lieberman btw)= 7 seats.
In 2013 Bennett ran a good campaign but there was dissatisfaction with the Likud-Israel Beitenu merger (especially with Lieberman under indictment) and Likud ran a bad campaign. Now that Lieberman has been acquitted, that particular concern is allayed. It is possible that 11-13 seats is the ceiling for Bayit Yehudi- not the new norm. Those voters dissatisfied with Likud and Israel Beitenu who voted for Bayit Yehudi might be returning to their preferred parties.
What I find most remarkable about all of these polls in the last year is that there is no serious left-wing challenge to Likud. Does anyone (including Labor voters) believe that there will ever be another Labor PM? Yesh Atid is bleeding mandates. Meretz could double its mandates and still be irrelevant.
But the problem is that without a strong Bayit Yehudi and stronger Likud Beiteinu Netanyahu will be able to make a deal with PA. (feel bigger mandate) And the Likud nationalist’s power will probably go down.
Stephan Miller, I would have one guestion for you.
As there has lately been some rumor of Bennett conspiring with Likud MKs to stop any concessions to the palestinians and the rumor of a Likud rebellion against Netanyahu; would it be possible for your organization to at some point in the near future make a poll where the right would be split into a Netanyahu (plus possibly Liberman) lead party that would promote a 2-state solution and a another party (Bayit Yehudi and Liku Beiteinu nationalists) that would fight a 2-state solution?
The results would be very interesting.
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