Archive for January 17, 2013


Dialog conducted a poll for Haaertz that was published on Jan 17 2013.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [42] Likud Beitenu (Likud and Yisrael Beitenu)
17 [08] Labor
14 [05] Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home-National Union)
12 [10] Shas
12 [---] Yesh Atid
08 [07] Movement
06 [03] Meretz
05 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [04] Hadash
04 [03] Balad
03 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
02 [21] Kadima
01 [02] Strong Israel (1.4%) not passing
01 [01] Am Shalem (1%) not passing
00 [05] Independence (not running)

63 [65] Right-Religious
57 [55] Center-Left-Arab

Green Leaf 1%, Koach Lahaspia 0.8%, Eretz Hadasha 0.5%, Hayisraelim 0.4%, Greens 0.1%.

Smith conducted a poll of 500 people with a 4.5% error rate for Jerusalem Post/Globes that was published on Jan 17 2013.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

34 [42] Likud Beitenu (Likud and Yisrael Beitenu)
17 [08] Labor
13 [05] Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home-National Union)
11 [10] Shas
11 [---] Yesh Atid
07 [07] Movement
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [03] Meretz
04 [04] Hadash
04 [03] Balad
03 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
02 [21] Kadima
02 [02] Strong Israel
00 [01] Am Shalem
00 [05] Independence (not running)

66 [65] Right-Religious
54 [55] Center-Left-Arab

 

Eretz Hadasha and Green Leaf 1 seat each

Panels conducted a poll of 707 people with a 3.4.% error rate for Knesset Channel that was broadcast on Jan 17 2013.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

34 [42] Likud Beitenu (Likud and Yisrael Beitenu)
16 [08] Labor
14 [05] Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home-National Union)
11 [---] Yesh Atid
10 [10] Shas
07 [07] Movement
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [03] Meretz
04 [04] Hadash
04 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
03 [21] Kadima
03 [03] Balad
02 [02] Strong Israel
02 [01] Am Shalem (1.9%) – not passing 2% threshold
00 [05] Independence (not running)

66 [65] Right-Religious
54 [55] Center-Left-Arab

Green Leaf (1.8%), Eretz Hadasha (1.4%) Koach Lahaspia (0.9%)

Geocartography conducted a poll with for Israeli Radio that was broadcast on Jan 17 2013.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [42] Likud Beitenu (Likud and Yisrael Beitenu)
17.5 [05] Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home-National Union)
16 [08] Labor
10.5 [---] Yesh Atid
10 [10] Shas
06 [07] Movement
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [03] Meretz
05 [03] Balad
04 [04] Hadash
03 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
02 [21] Kadima
02 [02] Strong Israel
00 [01] Am Shalem
00 [05] Independence (not running)

67.5 [65] Right-Religious
52.5 [55] Center-Left-Arab

Maagar Mochot conducted a second poll with a slightly smaller sample size with a 4.5% error rate for Reshet Bet that was broadcast on Jan 17 2013

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

37 [42] Likud Beitenu (Likud and Yisrael Beitenu)
16 [08] Labor
13 [05] Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home-National Union)
11 [10] Shas
09 [---] Yesh Atid
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [03] Meretz
05 [07] Movement
04 [04] Hadash
03 [21] Kadima
03 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
03 [03] Balad
03 [02] Strong Israel
01 [01] Am Shalem
00 [05] Independence (not running)

71 [65] Right-Religious
49 [55] Center-Left-Arab

Maagar Mochot conducted a poll of 569 people with a 4.5% error rate for Maariv that was published on Jan 17 2013

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

37 [42] Likud Beitenu (Likud and Yisrael Beitenu)
15 [08] Labor
14 [05] Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home-National Union)
12 [10] Shas
08 [---] Yesh Atid
07 [03] Meretz
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [07] Movement
04 [04] Hadash
03 [21] Kadima
03 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
03 [03] Balad
02 [02] Strong Israel
01 [01] Am Shalem
00 [05] Independence (not running)

72 [65] Right-Religious
48 [55] Center-Left-Arab

Results of the 6 smaller parties of the 12 that were elected, along with adjusted error rates.

Range of polling company errors was from 14 ro 25.5 seats of Knesset’s 120 seats.

Part 1: http://knessetjeremy.com/2013/01/16/knesset-jeremy-2009-election-poll-analysis/

 

Polling   Company/Party Raam-Taal Hadash N. Union J. Home Balad Meretz Error Rate
Actual   Results 4 4 4 3 3 3 0
Correct   Guesses 2 of 10 6 of 10 5 of 10 5 of 10 2 of 10 0 of 10 10 of 10
Panels 3 4 4 3 2 6 14
Maagar   Mochot 3 3 2 3 3 5 15
Smith 3.5 4 3.5 3.5 3 5 15.5
Dialog   1 3 3 4 2 2 7 18
Dialog   2 3 3 4 2 2 6 18
Midgam   (Meno Gava) 4 4 3 3 2 5 18
Teleseker 4 4 3 3 2 6 20
Shvakim   Panorama 3 4 4 4 2 5 20
Dahaf 3 4 4 3 2 5 20
Gal   Hadash/New Wave 3 5 3 2 0 6 24
Geocartography 3 5 6 2 0 5 25.5

New Wave conducted a poll with a 3.4% error rate for Yisrael Hayom that was published on Jan 17 2013

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

35 [42] Likud Beitenu (Likud and Yisrael Beitenu)
17 [08] Labor
15 [05] Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home-National Union)
12 [---] Yesh Atid
11 [10] Shas
07 [07] Movement
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [03] Meretz
04 [04] Hadash
03 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
03 [03] Balad
02 [21] Kadima
00 [02] Strong Israel
00 [01] Am Shalem
00 [05] Independence (not running)

67 [65] Right-Religious
53 [55] Center-Left-Arab

Dialog conducted a poll for 756 people for Channel 10 that was broadcast on Jan 16 2013

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [42] Likud Beitenu (Likud and Yisrael Beitenu)
16 [08] Labor
14 [05] Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home-National Union)
11 [10] Shas
11 [---] Yesh Atid
09 [07] Movement
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [03] Meretz
04 [04] Hadash
04 [03] Balad
03 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
02 [21] Kadima
02 [02] Strong Israel
01 [01] Am Shalem (1.1%)
00 [05] Independence (not running)

Green Leaf 1 (1.4%), Eretz Hadasha 1 (1.3%),

65 [65] Right-Religious
55 [55] Center-Left-Arab

6% are lost on 8 seats that don’t pass the threshold

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