Jeremy's Knesset Insider

Panels conducted a scenario poll that was broadcast by Knesset Channel 99 on Jan 28 2014.

If the Likud prevents Netanyahu from reaching an agreement that involves giving up territory and elections were tomorrow – Who would you vote for?

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

18 [–] New Netanyahu Led Party

17 [20] Likud

16 [15] Labor

16 [12] Bayit Yehudi

11 [06] Meretz

10 [19] Yesh Atid

07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

05 [11] Yisrael Beitenu

05 [11] Shas

04 [06] Movement

04 [04] Hadash

04 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

03 [03] Balad

00 [02] Kadima

50 [61] Right-Religious

70 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: The scenario poll that many KnessetJeremy readers have asked for.  The results – a new Netanyahu party would win the election and become the largest party. This scenario would make the block theory completely irrelevant.

Additional Questions:

Where do the Netanyahu party voters come from?

46% Likud Beitenu, undecided 14%, Labor 11%, Yesh Atid 11%, Meretz 9%, Livni/Movement 9%.

What should Netanyahu do if the Likud opposes a proposed peace agreement?

51% Accept the Likud’s decision (77% among Likud Beitenu voters), 25% Create a new party (7% among Likud Beitenu voters), 24% Don’t know (16% among Likud Beitenu voters).

Times Of Israel released a poll on Jan 23 2014. The poll was conducted on December 26-31 with a representative sample of 802 Israelis and an error rate of 3.5%. The poll was conducted by 202 Strategies with Shvakim Panorama.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

46 [31] Likud Beitenu

18 [15] Labor

13 [19] Yesh Atid

11 [11] Shas

07 [12] Bayit Yehudi

06 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

06 [06] Meretz

05 [06] Movement

00 [02] Kadima

08 [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al and Balad

70 [61] Right-Religious

50 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: The results are three weeks old but the Times of Israel poll is in line with the results of the Channel 1 and 103 FM polls, as opposed to the Panels poll that came out today. Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al and Balad drop of three seats seems very strange to me.

Panels conducted a poll that was broadcast by Knesset Channel 99 on Jan 23 2014.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

34 [31] Likud Beitenu

17 [15] Labor

14 [19] Yesh Atid

12 [12] Bayit Yehudi

10 [06] Meretz

08 [11] Shas

06 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

06 [06] Movement

04 [04] Hadash

04 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

03 [03] Balad

02 [02] Kadima

60 [61] Right-Religious

60 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: This poll is obviously very different than the polls from the last few days. Key is to note the 60-60 tie between the blocks.

Panels conducted a poll that was broadcast by Knesset Channel 99 on Jan 16 2014.

Additionally, Panels conducted a scenario poll with a Kachalon Party.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

34 [31] Likud Beitenu

19 [15] Labor

15 [19] Yesh Atid

12 [12] Bayit Yehudi

09 [11] Shas

08 [06] Meretz

07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

05 [06] Movement

04 [04] Hadash

04 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

03 [03] Balad

00 [02] Kadima

62 [61] Right-Religious

58 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: Center-Left bloc gains 2 seats and reduces the gap from 8 seats to 4 seats. Likud Beitenu remains stable. Labor and Yesh Atid get a bump and Meretz’s slump continues. Bayit Yehudi drops 2 seats from last week.

Scenario Poll: With Kachalon Party

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

31 [31] Likud Beitenu

15 [15] Labor

13 [19] Yesh Atid

12 [12] Bayit Yehudi

12 [–] Kachalon Party

08 [11] Shas

07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

06 [06] Meretz

05 [06] Movement

04 [04] Hadash

04 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al

03 [03] Balad

00 [02] Kadima

70 [61] Right-Religious-Kachalon

50 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: If you place Kachalon in the right block you are looking at 70 seats. The 8 seats (of 12) Kachalon takes are: 4 from Labor, 2 from Yesh Atid, 2 from Meretz. The 4 seats from the right are 3 from Likud Beitenu and 1 from Shas.

Additional Questions:

Do you believe Prime Minister Netanyahu when he says that the government that he heads is trying to reach peace with the Palestinians?

48% No, 32% Yes. (The left doesn’t believe Netanyahu, the right does)

Do you think Secretary Kerry is operating in the right direction in regards to the diplomatic negotiations?

53% Wrong direction, 27% Right direction.

How should Prime Minister Netanyahu act towards Defense Minister Yaalon following Yaalon’s remarks on Kerry?

34% Don’t do anything, 27% distance himself from the words publicly, 18% to deal with him privately, 11% fire him.

Do you think the Israelis and Palestinians are close to signing an interim-agreement?

53% Far from agreement 27% No chance for agreement 11% Close to agreement.

Who has the most blame as to why there is no significant breakthrough in the diplomatic negotiations?

63% Palestinians 15% Israelis