The split of the Labor party and the establishment of the new Independence party piqued the interest of media across the country. Six separate polls were taken to gauge public opinion following the political shake up. All polls were conducted during the week of January 17-20, 2011.

My analysis is simple- it doesn’t matter which poll you are looking at, all of them show Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition maintaining the support of Israel’s citizens. It also presents a dark picture for Ehud Barak and his new Independence party.

Poll #1 was carried out by Channel 10

Poll #2 was carried out by Yediot Achronot (Dahaf)

Poll #3 was carried out by Channel 2

Poll #4 was carried out by Haaretz (Dialog)

Poll #5 was carried out by Maariv (Telesker)

Poll #6 was an alternate poll carried out by Maariv (Telesker)

#1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6
[27] Likud 30 26 28 32 26
[27] Likud with Barak as #2 in Likud 27
[28] Kadima 27 26 29 30 30
[28] Kadima with Yair Lapid as #2 in Kadima 31
[15] Yisrael Beitenu 17 14 15 15 16 16
[13] Labor 8 9 5 8 8
[11] Shas 10 10 9 11 10 10
[05] Yahadut Hatorah 6 5 6 6
[07] Jewish Home/NRP with Nat’l Union one ticket 6
[04] Nat’l Union 3 3
[03] Jewish Home/NRP 3 4 4
[03] Meretz 5 5 5
[11] Arab parties 9 10 10
[—] Ehud Barak’s Independence Party 3 2 2 2 2 0

Kadima, which today has 28 seats, would receive 27, 26, 29, 30 and 30 seats respectively in the first five polls for a combined range of 26-30 seats. In the alternate poll, Kadima would receive 31 seats with journalist Yair Lapid as their #2.

Likud, which today has 27 seats, would receive 30, 26, 28, 32 and 26 seats respectively in the first five polls for a combined range of 26-30 seats. In the alternate poll, Likud would receive 27 seats with Ehud Barak as their #2.

Yisrael Beitenu, which today has 15 seats, would receive 17, 14, 15, 15 and 16 seats respectively in five polls for a combined range of 14-17 seats.

Shas, which today has 11 seats, would receive 10, 10, 9, 11 and 10 seats respectively in five polls for a combined range of 9-11 seats.

United Torah Judaism, which today has 5 seats, would receive 6, 5 and 6 seats respectively in three polls for a combined range of 5-6 seats.

National Union, which today has 4 seats, would receive 3 seats according to one poll.

Jewish Home, which today has 3 seats, would receive 3 or 4 seats according to two different polls.

If the Jewish Home and National Union ran together they would receive 6 seats according to one poll. Today the parties together have 7 seats.

Meretz, which today has 3 seats, would receive 5 seats in both polls.

The three Arab parties, which today have 11 seats, would receive 9 or 10 seats according to two different polls.

Labor had 13 seats before the split and has 8 seats after it. Without Barak Labor would receive 8, 9, 5 and 8 respectively in the four polls for a combined range of 5-9 seats.

Ehud Barak’s Independence party, which currently has 5 seats, would receive 3, 2, 2, 2, 2 and 2 seats respectively in the first five polls for a combined range of 2-3 seats.

Dialog results:
Number of mandates for the Labor Party if specify who heads the Labor Party:
Yacimovich 10; Mitzne 9; Herzog 8; Braverman 5

Teleseker results:
Who is most appropriate to be the head of the Labor Party?
Herzog 19.9%; Mitzne 16.2%; Yacimovich 18.8%; Peretz 5.2%; Braverman 4.3%; Einy 3.9%; None of the above 14.9%; Don’t know 16.7%

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