A poll taken out by Maagar Mohot proves that even in a scenario where Liberman doesn’t take part in the next elections and the left wing’s savior Shelly Yacimovich leads the Labor party, Netanyahu’s Likud would form the next government. In the poll, Netanyahu’s Likud has a two-seat edge over Livni’s Kadima party 32-30, a gain of five and three seats, respectively. Yisrael Beitenu without Lieberman drops a seat to 14 and Labor led by Yacimovich drops to 7 seats. If Yishai leads Shas his party only loses one seat, and the other parties remain unchanged, aside from Meretz, which would pick up one seat. Another possible outcome would be a national-unity government of Likud and Kadima which could hold a narrow 62-seat coalition. As for president, Speaker Rivlin (Likud) leads former Speaker Itzik (Kadima) 61% to 15% with former minister Sharansky claiming 24% of the vote.

Telephone poll of a representative sample of 501 adult Israelis, including Israeli Arabs, carried out by Maagar Mohot Survey Institute (headed by Professor Yitzchak Katz) the week of 18 February and published in the Makor Rishon paper on 18 February 2011

In this poll Yisrael Beitenu was not headed by Liberman. Ehud Barak’s Independence party did not get enough votes to get into the Knesset.

If elections were held today (expressed in Knesset seats) Current Knesset seats in [brackets].

32 [27] Likud headed by Netanyahu
30 [28] Kadima headed by Livni
14 [15] Yisrael Beitenu not headed by Liberman
10 [11] Shas headed by Yishai
07 [08] Labor headed by Shelly Yacimovich
00 [05] Independence headed by Barak
05 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
03 [03] Jewish Home/NRP
04 [03] Meretz
04 [04] National Union
11 [11] Arab parties

Who would you like to be the next president?
Rivlin 61% Itzik 15% Sharansky 24%

32 [27] Likud headed by Netanyahu
30 [28] Kadima headed by Livni
14 [15] Yisrael Beitenu not headed by Liberman
10 [11] Shas headed by Yishai

07 [08] Labor headed by Shelly Yacimovich

00 [05] Independence headed by Barak
05 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
03 [03] Jewish Home/NRP
04 [03] Meretz
04 [04] National Union
11 [11] Arab parties

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