The latest Globes poll including only the current parties shows Likud leading Kadima 29-27 and the conservative block gaining four seats to improve to a combined 69 seats. A second poll carried out with two fictional parties led by TV personality Yair Lapid and formerly jailed former Shas leader Aryeh Deri would cut into support of the two biggest parties, but Likud would still lead Kadima 22-20. The Lapid party’s 16 seats would make it the third biggest party and kingmaker. Deri’s party would receive eight seats and become the country’s fifth largest party. The Deri and Lapid parties would take seven seats each from Likud and Kadima, four from Shas, two from Yisrael Beitenu, two from Labor, one from Meretz and one from the Israeli Arab party block. In that scenario the conservative block would have 56 seats.

Telephone poll carried out by Rafi Smith Institute for Globes. The date the poll was conducted and the sample composition and size were not indicated. The poll was published July 1, 2011.

If elections held today (expressed in Knesset seats), current Knesset seats in [brackets].

29 22 [27] Likud
27 20 [28] Kadima
16 14 [15] Yisrael Beitenu
09 07 [08] Labor
10 06 [11] Shas
06 06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 05 [04] National Union
04 03 [03] Meretz
03 03 [03] Jewish Home/NRP
11 10 [11] Arab parties
— 16 [—] Yair Lapid Party [does not currently exist]
— 08 [—] Aryeh Deri Party [does not currently exist]
— — [05] Independence

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