Jeremy's Knesset Insider

The latest poll taken before the social justice weekend rallies show the Likud standing still with the 27 seats it has now and the other conservative parties taking four seats combined from the center and left. According to the poll Kadima drops ten seats, and the Green Party and Ehud Barak’s Independence Party would receive three seats each. Analysts are trying to understand why the large protests are not affecting the coalition parties’ numbers.

An Israel Radio telephone poll with a survey error of 4.4 percentage points that was carried out by Panorama on 31 August and broadcast on 1 September 2011 and later published by Makor Rishon on 2 September.

If elections held today (expressed in Knesset seats)

Current Knesset seats in [brackets].

27 [27] Likud
18 [28] Kadima
16 [15] Yisrael Beitenu
12 [11] Shas
10 [08] Labor
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [03] Meretz
04 [04] National Union
04 [03] Jewish Home
03 [05] Ehud Barak Independence Party
03 [—] Green Party
11 [11] Arab parties

Telephone poll of a representative sample of 506 adult Israelis carried out by Maagar Mohot Survey Institute (headed by Professor Yitzchak Katz) the week of August 1, 2011, for Makor Rishon and published on August 5, 2011.

An interesting scenario poll that asked potential voters which party they would vote for if the leaders of the tent movement formed a party compared to a poll without the tent movement party paints a clear picture of which voters are supporting the housing protest. According to the poll the Tent Party would receive 16 of its 20 seats from the left wing parties, four seats from Likud and none from the other nationalistic parties. The poll presents the Tent Party as the second biggest party in Israel behind Likud and shows Israeli liberals’ frustration with their current parties and leaders. The right maintains a majority whether the fictional party is created or not (63 vs 67).

Telephone poll of 500 adult Israelis carried out by Smith Institute for Globes and The Jerusalem Post on 1 August, 2011 and published 3 August, 2011.

If elections held today (expressed in Knesset seats) Current Knesset seats in [brackets].

25 19 [28] Kadima
26 22 [27] Likud
15 15 [15] Yisrael Beitenu
12 12 [11] Shas
11 07 [08] Labor
06 06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/ UTJ
05 05 [04] National Union
04 00 [03] Meretz
03 03 [03] Jewish Home/NRP
11 11 [11] Arab parties
02 00 [00] Green party
00 00 [05] Independence (Ehud Barak)
— 20 [—] Social Economic Party led by the current leaders of the housing protests

Will the next election be advanced from its current date of October 22, 2013, due to the protests and the expected United Nations General Assembly vote on a Palestinian state next month?: No 50% Yes 29% No opinion 21%

Poll carried out Monday 25 July 2011 by Dialogue of a representative sample of 493 adults Israelis for the Ha’aretz newspaper. Margin of error was not disclosed.

If elections held today (expressed in Knesset seats) Current Knesset seats in [brackets].
27 [27] Likud
27 [28] Kadima
12 [13] Labor
13 [11] Shas

Other parties’ results were not listed.

Do you support the tent protest?: Yes 87% No 9% Don’t know 4%

Do you support the doctors in their struggle to improve their conditions?: Yes 85% No 9% Don’t know 6%

29 [27] Likud
27 [28] Kadima
16 [15] Yisrael Beitenu
10 [11] Shas
09 [08] Labor
06 [05] UTJ
05 [04] National Union
04 [03] Meretz
03 [03] Jewish Home/NRP
11 [11] Arab parties
00 [05] Independence

According to the poll, Labors MK count would be different based on who is elected chairman. Mitzna14, Herzog 13, Yacimovich 12, Peretz and other two candidates 9