Jeremy's Knesset Insider

Two Maariv telephone polls were conducted by Teleseker on January 9, 2012, with 550 respondents. The first poll listed the current parties and the newly announced Yair Lapid party, and the second scenario poll added Aryeh Deri’s party. The polls showed that the nationalist camp would net 62 seats if Deri’s Party doesn’t run and 59 if it does.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

Scenario #1 Poll:

27 [27] Likud
18 [08] Labor
15 [28] Kadima
14 [15] Yisrael Beitenu
12 [—] Yair Lapid Party
08 [07] National Union and Jewish Home
08 [11] Shas
05 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
03 [03] Meretz
00 [05] Independence
10 [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al and Balad

Scenario #2 Poll:

26 [27] Likud
17 [08] Labor
15 [28] Kadima
14 [15] Yisrael Beitenu
12 [—] Yair Lapid Party
08 [07] National Union and Jewish Home
07 [11] Shas
04 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
04 [—] Aryeh Deri Party
03 [03] Meretz
00 [05] Independence
10 [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al and Balad

The Geocartography Poll conducted by Professor Dagani shows that Prime Minister Netanyahu’s Likud would easily become the largest party with 38 seats, a gain of 11, without the addition of new parties by Yair Lapid or Aryeh Deri. Foreign Minister Liberman’s Yisrael Beitenu would come in second at 16, followed by Opposition Leader Livni’s Kadima closely behind at 15, a loss of 13. Labor, under new Chairwoman Yachimovich, would finish fourth with the 13 seats the party won in 2009. Shas would drop to eight seats and UTJ would be right behind them with seven seats. The biggest story of the poll is that the nationalistic camp would grow from 65 seats to 76 seats, giving Netanyahu the flexibility of excluding certain parties from the next government.

A scenario poll with the fictitious Lapid and Deri parties shows a different result. Likud would win 25 seats, a loss of two. Yair Lapid’s party would finish second with 20 seats, and Aryeh Deri’s party would tie for third place with 12 seats along with Yisrael Beitenu. 13 of the 32 seats distributed between the two fictitious parties are taken from the Likud, six from Kadima, four each from Labor and Yisrael Beitenu, two each from Shas and UTJ and one from Meretz. According to the poll the nationalistic camp would net 55 seats, a drop of 10. In this case Netanyahu would be able to form a coalition by wooing Lapid, Deri or perhaps Kadima.

If elections were held today, who would you vote for?

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

38 [27] Likud
16 [15] Yisrael Beitenu
15 [28] Kadima
13 [08] Labor
08 [11] Shas
07 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [03] Meretz
04 [04] National Union
03 [03] Jewish Home
00 [05] Independence
10 [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al and Balad

Scenario Poll:

25 [27] Likud
20 [—] Yair Lapid Party
12 [—] Aryeh Deri Party
12 [15] Yisrael Beitenu
09 [28] Kadima
09 [08] Labor
06 [11] Shas
05 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [03] Meretz
04 [03] Jewish Home
03 [04] National Union
00 [05] Independence
10 [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al and Balad

The poll was televised by Channel 1 on Jan 4 2012.

A Reshet Bet Radio scenario poll carried out by Shvakim Panorama and published by Haaretz and the Jerusalem Post on December 29, 2011, shows that fictional parties led by television icon Yair Lapid and liberal ultra-orthodox leader Aryeh Deri would dramatically shift public support. According to the poll Likud would lose three seats, Yisrael Beitenu one, Shas six and Kadima 18, while Labor would gain seven and Meretz would gain two. Recent polls had shown support for the two fictional parties dropping to the verge of missing the electoral threshold, but this poll shows that following the recent incidents involving the ultra-orthodox community, the public might be willing to take another look at the parties. It has long been the desire of the left for the two center-leaning parties to be created and take away votes from the right. However, in order for the center-left block to return to power, they would need either support from the other religious parties or the Arab parties. Both of those scenarios are unlikely since the religious claim that the left is inciting against their community and the Arab parties haven’t joined any government since the creation of the state. It would be difficult for the Likud to form a government, according to this poll, since the right-religious block makes up just 57 seats. Netanyahu would need to enlist the support of either the centrist-secular Yair Lapid or the centrist-religious Aryeh Deri.

If elections held today (expressed in Knesset seats)

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

24 [27] Likud
15 [—] Yair Lapid Party
15 [08] Labor
14 [15] Yisrael Beitenu
10 [28] Kadima
07 [—] Aryeh Deri Party
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [11] Shas
05 [03] Meretz
04 [04] National Union
04 [03] Jewish Home
11 [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al and Balad
00 [05] Independence

An internet based poll by the Panels Polling Company on Decemeber 12, 2011, offers an explanation for why Prime Minister Netanyahu decided to call for early primaries for the Likud chairmanship. According to the poll Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud would gain five seats and enjoy a 13-seat lead over second place Kadima. Labor drops from the second largest party position in recent polls to third and would win only four more seats than it had under Defense Minister Barak in 2009. Foreign Minister Avigdor Liberman drops to 13 seats in this poll and is a main reason his party is against calling for early elections. The poll only showed the results for the four largest parties and chose not to show the results of the other nine parties currently represented in Knesset. The poll does show that the four larger parties would gain three seats from its smaller counterparts.

If elections held today (expressed in Knesset seats)

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [27] Likud
19 [28] Kadima
17 [08] Labor
13 [15] Yisrael Beitenu
39 [ 42] Other Parties

The latest poll conducted on Tuesday, November 29, 2011, and published in the print edition of Ha’aretz on Thursday, December 1, 2011, shows that despite the latest wave of controversial bills the nationalist block is gaining strength.

According to the poll Netanyahu’s Likud and his senior coalition partner, Liberman’s Y.B., would both receive two additional seats. Opposition leader Livni’s Kadima continues its recent trend of dropping in the polls and would lose 11 seats. Yachimovich’s Labor is starting to drop from recent polls and dips under 20 seats for the first time since late August. Interior Minister Yishai’s Shas would drop two seats. A merged National Union and Jewish Home would become the sixth largest party with seven seats, and Meretz would be close behind with six seats after a gain of three.

The poll had a sample of 505 adults Israelis, and the statistical error was +/- 4.5 percentage points.

If elections held today (expressed in Knesset seats)

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

29 [27] Likud
19 [08] Labor
17 [28] Kadima
17 [15] Yisrael Beitenu
09 [11] Shas
07 [07] National Union and Jewish Home
06 [03] Meretz
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [04] Hadash
05 [07] Ra’am, Ta’al and Balad
00 [05] Independence