Jeremy's Knesset Insider

Two telephone polls conducted on 18 January 2011 among a random sample of 501 respondents with a sampling error of 4.5%. Army Radio aired the results and Channel 10 broadcasted the results the following day. The difference between the two polls was in one poll Livni was leading Kadima and in the other Mofaz was the party chairman. The poll shows that a Mofaz led Kadima would lose four seats, two to the Likud, and a seat each to Labor and Yair Lapid. If Livni leads Kadima the Nationalist Camp nets 67 seats and the Center-Left-Arab Camp nets 51. If Mofaz leads Kadima the Nationalist Camp nets 69 seats and the Center-Left-Arab Camp nets 49.

Sceneario 1:

26 [27] Likud
17 [15] Yisrael Beitenu
14 [08] Labor
13 [28] Livni Kadima
07 [—] Yair Lapid Party
07 [11] Shas
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [04] National Union
04 [03] Jewish Home
03 [—] Aryeh Deri Party
03 [03] Meretz
02 [05] Independence
02 [—] Am Shalem (MK Amsellem)
11 [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al and Balad

Sceneario 2:

28 [27] Likud
17 [15] Yisrael Beitenu
15 [08] Labor
09 [28] Mofaz Kadima
08 [—] Yair Lapid Party
07 [11] Shas
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [04] National Union
04 [03] Jewish Home
03 [—] Aryeh Deri Party
03 [03] Meretz
02 [05] Independence
02 [—] Am Shalem (MK Amsellem)
11 [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al and Balad

Panels Polling Company conducted an internet based poll on Thursday Jan 10 and the poll was broadcasted by Knesset Channel 99 later that evening. The nationlist camp nets 62 seats and the Center-Left-Arabs camp nets 58 seats. The poll listed the 13 parties currently represented in Knesset with the Lapid and Deri parties as options.

If elections held were today who would you vote for?

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

27 [27] Likud
16 [—] Yair Lapid Party
14 [15] Yisrael Beitenu
14 [08] Labor
10 [28] Kadima
08 [11] Shas
06 [03] Meretz
05 [04] National Union
05 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
03 [03] Jewish Home
03 [—] Aryeh Deri Party
03 [04] Hadash
03 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
03 [03] Balad
00 [05] Independence

New Wave conducted a telephone poll for the daily newspaper Makor Rishon on 10 January 2012 of 620 respondents and the poll was published on 13 January 2012.

If elections held were today who would you vote for?

[expressed in Knesset seats]

Current Knesset seats in [brackets].

28 [27] Likud
15 [08] Labor
15 [—] Party lead by Yair Lapid
14 [28] Kadima
14 [15] Yisrael Beitenu
09 [11] Shas
05 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [03] Meretz
03 [03] Jewish Home/NRP
02 [04] National Union
10 [11] Arab parties
00 [05] Independence

Panels Polling Company internet poll conducted on 9 January and published on Channel 99

Current Knesset seats in [brackets].
29 [27] Likud
20 [—] Lapid
13 [15] Yisrael Beitenu
12 [08] Labor
09 [28] Kadima
37 [42] Other Parties

Three Yediot Ahronot telephone polls were conducted by Dahaf on January 9, 2012, and published the next day. The first measures the current Knesset parties along with the Lapid, Deri and Green parties. The second is similar to the first, with MK Mofaz leading Kadima. The third poll measures support if Lapid led Kadima. The nationalist camp would enjoy a majority of 61 seats if Livni heads Kadima and 62 if Kadima is led by Mofaz. The third poll has the nationalist camp at 58 seats compared to the Center-Left-Arab coalition at 57, and supposedly Deri could play kingmaker with the five other seats. The Arab parties are unlikely to join a Lapid or Kadima government. It appears from all three of these polls that the new parties would chip away at the right majority of 65 but would fall short of preventing the Right the opportunity to form the next government.

Scenario #1 Poll:

28 [27] Likud
15 [15] Yisrael Beitenu
13 [28] Livni Kadima
13 [08] Labor
11 [—] Yair Lapid Party
06 [11] Shas
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [—] Aryeh Deri Party
04 [03] Meretz
04 [03] Jewish Home
02 [04] National Union
00 [05] Independence
11 [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al and Balad
02 [—] Greens

Scenario #2 Poll:

28 [27] Likud
16 [15] Yisrael Beitenu
14 [08] Labor
14 [—] Yair Lapid Party
08 [28] Mofaz Kadima
06 [11] Shas
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [—] Aryeh Deri Party
04 [03] Meretz
04 [03] Jewish Home
02 [04] National Union
00 [05] Independence
11 [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al and Balad
02 [—] Greens

Scenario #3 Poll:

Current Knesset seats in [brackets].
29 [28] Kadima with Lapid
27 [27] Likud
14 [15] Yisrael Beitenu
12 [08] Labor
05 [—] Party lead by Arieh Deri
33 [42] Other Parties