A Reshet Bet Radio scenario poll carried out by Shvakim Panorama and published by Haaretz and the Jerusalem Post on December 29, 2011, shows that fictional parties led by television icon Yair Lapid and liberal ultra-orthodox leader Aryeh Deri would dramatically shift public support. According to the poll Likud would lose three seats, Yisrael Beitenu one, Shas six and Kadima 18, while Labor would gain seven and Meretz would gain two. Recent polls had shown support for the two fictional parties dropping to the verge of missing the electoral threshold, but this poll shows that following the recent incidents involving the ultra-orthodox community, the public might be willing to take another look at the parties. It has long been the desire of the left for the two center-leaning parties to be created and take away votes from the right. However, in order for the center-left block to return to power, they would need either support from the other religious parties or the Arab parties. Both of those scenarios are unlikely since the religious claim that the left is inciting against their community and the Arab parties haven’t joined any government since the creation of the state. It would be difficult for the Likud to form a government, according to this poll, since the right-religious block makes up just 57 seats. Netanyahu would need to enlist the support of either the centrist-secular Yair Lapid or the centrist-religious Aryeh Deri.

If elections held today (expressed in Knesset seats)

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

24 [27] Likud
15 [—] Yair Lapid Party
15 [08] Labor
14 [15] Yisrael Beitenu
10 [28] Kadima
07 [—] Aryeh Deri Party
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [11] Shas
05 [03] Meretz
04 [04] National Union
04 [03] Jewish Home
11 [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al and Balad
00 [05] Independence

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