The Geocartography Poll conducted by Professor Dagani shows that Prime Minister Netanyahu’s Likud would easily become the largest party with 38 seats, a gain of 11, without the addition of new parties by Yair Lapid or Aryeh Deri. Foreign Minister Liberman’s Yisrael Beitenu would come in second at 16, followed by Opposition Leader Livni’s Kadima closely behind at 15, a loss of 13. Labor, under new Chairwoman Yachimovich, would finish fourth with the 13 seats the party won in 2009. Shas would drop to eight seats and UTJ would be right behind them with seven seats. The biggest story of the poll is that the nationalistic camp would grow from 65 seats to 76 seats, giving Netanyahu the flexibility of excluding certain parties from the next government.

A scenario poll with the fictitious Lapid and Deri parties shows a different result. Likud would win 25 seats, a loss of two. Yair Lapid’s party would finish second with 20 seats, and Aryeh Deri’s party would tie for third place with 12 seats along with Yisrael Beitenu. 13 of the 32 seats distributed between the two fictitious parties are taken from the Likud, six from Kadima, four each from Labor and Yisrael Beitenu, two each from Shas and UTJ and one from Meretz. According to the poll the nationalistic camp would net 55 seats, a drop of 10. In this case Netanyahu would be able to form a coalition by wooing Lapid, Deri or perhaps Kadima.

If elections were held today, who would you vote for?

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

38 [27] Likud
16 [15] Yisrael Beitenu
15 [28] Kadima
13 [08] Labor
08 [11] Shas
07 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [03] Meretz
04 [04] National Union
03 [03] Jewish Home
00 [05] Independence
10 [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al and Balad

Scenario Poll:

25 [27] Likud
20 [—] Yair Lapid Party
12 [—] Aryeh Deri Party
12 [15] Yisrael Beitenu
09 [28] Kadima
09 [08] Labor
06 [11] Shas
05 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [03] Meretz
04 [03] Jewish Home
03 [04] National Union
00 [05] Independence
10 [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al and Balad

The poll was televised by Channel 1 on Jan 4 2012.

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