Smith conducted a poll that was published by Globes on Aug 29 2013
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
33 [31] Likud Beitenu
18 [15] Labor
13 [12] Bayit Yehudi
12 [19] Yesh Atid
11 [06] Mertez
10 [11] Shas
08 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
04 [06] Movement
04 [04] Hadash
04 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
03 [03] Balad
00 [02] Kadima
64 [61] Right-Religious
56 [59] Center-Left-Arab
Knesset Jeremy Analysis:
Likud Beitenu maintains their spot at the top of the polls. Yesh Atid who was tied with Likud Beitenu a few months ago has another poll placing them as the fourth largest party behind Labor and Bayit Yehudi. Meretz edges out Shas.
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Would really like to see Bayit Yehudi’s numbers go up and not this up-down-up-down etc.
According to this poll, the current coalition would only have 62 votes (instead of its current 68) which means Likud will need new partners. I wonder what the most likely coalition would be.
It is not hard to imagine Likud+Labor+Shas+UTJ+ Movement= 70 Seats. This would probably be Bibi’s preference.
Another possibility is the an all secular coalition of Likud+Labor+Yesh Atid+Movement= 67 Seats, but Bibi likes the Haredi parties, because they are frankly easy to buy off.
Another possibility is a straight right-wing/religious bloc of 64. This is my preference but 64 is kind of small. I really wonder how much bad blood exists between Bayit Yehudi and Shas/UTJ or if it is jsut rhetoric.
I read the other day that Amsallem says he should have joined Jewish Home. Hopefully he will in the next election which could give Jewish Home an extra seat. Maybe the Otzma crowd will see the writing on the wall and shift their support to a party that can actually win if the threshold is raised. Then again, some of them see strangely see Bennett as a raging leftist which proves all politics is relative I suppose. If the religious/right could get 65-66 seats then they could have a comfortable coalition without having to bring in other parties.
Well, sounds interesting …
However I would hope for a new party merger: Bayit Yehudi + Amsallem + (rigth-wing) Likud-beiteinu (that is if Likud-beiteinu would split because of the peace talks …). That would be a good party with maybe some 35-40 seats. Shas would maybe also be welcome, Shas is after all somewhat rigth-wing (contrary to UTJ). THis wuld be power with 48+ seats