Panels Pollitics Polling conducted the first poll following the dramatic Netanyahu – Liberman unity deal and asked 305 people on Oct 25 2012. The results were presented on Channel 2 shortly after midnight.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets].
33 [42] Likud Beitenu (Likud and Yisrael Beitenu)
27 [08] Labor
18 [—] Yesh Atid
13 [07] National Union – Jewish Home
09 [11] Shas
05 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [03] Meretz
04 [04] Hadash
03 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
03 [03] Balad
00 [28] Kadima
00 [05] Independence
60 [65] Right
60 [55] Center-Left
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
According to jpost, this poll was online. That combined with the small sample proves it to be a complete joke.
Panels had the most accurate poll predicting the 2009 election so I wouldn’t dismiss this so easily. Their internet model is more accurate than telephone polls because they know for sure how to get the true male/female, age demographic, geographical demographics and more. They also don’t have people hanging up the phone.
That said, this poll predicts the true basement of the merger. After the details are released they will increase.
Fewer seats now themselves, but they’ll easily become a robust center-right coalition.
That could be pure coincidence. Did they use internet polling back then? Internet models are rarely more accurate. They miss older voters and disconnected voters. Im very skeptical.
Wigwam, Panels has always done internet polling. Israel has a very low number of older voters comapred to most western countries and a high number of overall voting % in general elections compared to the United States. Both of those factors help the internet model in Israel.
As for my opinion in case I wasn’t clear before, I expect Likud Beitenu to rise in the polls after the terms of the deal are released. People are not robots, they won’t answer they are voting for this new faction before they hear what the rules of the game are. There is also a lot of spin (Liberman replacing Netanyahu as Prime Minister after 3 years). This poll shows the true basement of the new faction but the poll also shows that religious voters will most likely be the people that bolt and not the moderate center-right or sefardi voters as the media has suggested until now.
I agree with you, 33 seats is a minimum. Also, the other joint list on the right (Jewish Home and National Union) will probably get more votes as the dati leumi sector may turn away from Likud Beitenu.
Thanks for these updates Jeremy. Interesting times on the political front in the State of Israel and the USA.
Shabbat Shalom !
Thanks for the updates Jeremy. Interesting times on the poltical front in the State of Israel and the USA. The 2012-2013 election season is exceptional, with more than 100 elections in economies accounting for approximately 60% of global GDP.
Shabbat Shalom !
Thanks!
How do they get a number for UTJ with internet polling? Do they just guess?