Israel Radio Poll by Smith from 14 Sep 2012
If elections were held today who would you vote for?
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
28 [27] Likud
19 [08] Labor
15 [15] Yisrael Beitenu
11 [—] Yesh Atid
10 [11] Shas
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [03] Jewish Home
05 [28] Kadima
04 [03] Meretz
03 [04] National Union
03 [05] Independence
11 [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al and Balad
67 [65] Right
53 [55] Center-Left
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
Independence is holding fairly firm over the past few months after not showing in the polls at all. I think unless something changes, Barak will be back in the next Knesset, though I have a hard time seeing how he’ll get to be MOD at the head of such a small faction. Bibi will have his choice of how he wants to put his government together – I just hope he includes YA.
Thanks for keeping us up to date with this info – can’t find it anywhere else!
OK, you’re scaring me. You think the religious members of Likud / YB would go along? Juding by recent history, I’m afraid you may be right.
Well, if he had YA, he wouldn’t need all of the religious parties. He would only need one of them, the same way Sharon did when he included the forerunner of YA in his government. It depends on what he wants to get done. Bibi is a fiscal hawk and he can get more of his economic goals with YA rather than being held hostage by the religious parties. Lukud plus YB, YA and Independence gets you to 57 right there. Add a religious party and you are over the top. You could probably even cheaply add a reduced Kadima if you wanted a margin.
Who would join? All of Mafdal, including NU? Doubtful. Would YA make a coalition with UTJ? I know they won’t with Shas.
And please recall that there is a direct line between the coalition you refer to and its drastic cuts, and UTJ being successfully blackmailed into abstaining on the hitnatkut. Think about the long term.
Seems a bit of an outlier. The religious parties all do well. Interesting to see what happens with the next few polls.