President Rivlin conducted “Day 2” of his consultations with the remaining delegations. Kulanu and Yisrael Beitenu nominated Netanyahu. Yesh Atid did not nominate anyone. Meretz chose to nominate Herzog.
It was the kingmaker Moshe Kahlon who endorsed Netanyahu for Phase 2 earlier in the day to bring him to 61 seats. This clinched Netanyahu’s victory and took away the possibility of President Rivlin choosing Herzog or demanding a unity government. The law does not allow the President to intervene if a candidate recieves a majority. Yesh Atid decided to keep their Phase 3 options open by not nominating Herzog for Phase 2, despite promising they would nominate Herzog before the elections.
President Rivlin will formally ask Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to form his fourth government when the official results are released tomorrow or on Wedensday. Netanyahu has already started holding talks with his potential coalition partners today. It is possible that coalition negotations will go on for several weeks. The next Knesset will be sworn in next week on Tuesday March 31st. Phase 3 will be conducted after Netanyahu signs enough coalition deals to produce a majority of at least 61 MKs to approve his fourth government in Knesset.
The final tally of Phase 2, Israel’s electoral college:
Netanyahu 67 (Likud, Bayit Yehudi, Shas, UTJ, Kulanu and Yisrael Beitenu), Herzog 29 (Zionist Union, Meretz), Neither 24 (The Joint List, Yesh Atid).
My 2 cents: I’ll note that before the election I predicted a Phase 2 coalition of 66 seats for Prime Minister Netanyahu that included the above lists and many of my loyal readers disagreed with me. 🙂
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
I have just subscribed to your website. These elections results and explanations are very interesting to me, since I am unfamiliar to the way the govt. is set up. Thanks for your helpful work!
Jane, you might like to read the Wikipedia article “Elections in Israel”. Full of information. It will make you more familiar with the Israel government.
What gives with YA not recommending Herzog? I guess it doesn’t matter but … yeesh.
Also, who on earth thought that wasn’t what the Bibi coalition would look like? We’ve known that was the most likely Bibi coalition since like January.
The only question now is how many Kulanu ministers will there be apart from Kahlon? Might Bibi make Oren FA minister as an olive branch to the US? Or will he go full nationalist when he puts the cabinet together?
Over/under on Kulanu ministers is 1.5. I’m taking the under.
You are surprised, Lewis, on YA’s fickle behavior? YA stands for a whole bunch of nothing & the Son detests the Haredim just as much as the Father.
No Holy Spirit there, either.
I “shorted” Herzog futures on this site, just as everyone was piling on their coalition speculations & crowning him as the winner & savior from Life in Bibi-Ville. YA & Kulanu were to hold the “center” for a Herzog coalition.
Nice. There is no denying facts on the ground, unless you have a Ph.D and do it professionally.
There is no relationship-building leader in Israel today in the Left or Center-Left, to be generous. Shelly was marginalized—maybe she can rally back.
I look more to the Arabs, much, much, more than the likes of Lapid, Herzog, Livni and Gal-on (now toast) to build meaningful political relationships with the true center in the State of Israel.
The Arabs are the 3rd biggest party in Israel, if I am not mistaken, and their growth dynamic is strong.
Well, I agree that the Arab left is likely on an upswing, but it has decided to marginalize itself. Which I was disappointed, if not surprised, by.
From a political horse-trading perspective – a policy-making perspective – there is no reason not to cast a vote to Rivlin. The only conceivable reason to do something like that is messaging. Or “principle”, which is really just politics-speak for messaging.
And YA is now marginalizing itself too. Which I found disappointing AND surprising. Lapid took a swing at the Haredim and missed. His decision NOT to back Herzog makes him seem petty, bitter, and irrelevant to me. Sore loser, in short.
So, yes, I agree that there is no unifying figure that can bridge the center, the Zionist left, and the Arab left. That’s the coalition that unseats Likud, the nationalists, and the Haredim. Herzog obviously was not that figure.
Kahlon did the smart thing and cast his lot with the bloc that can make his agenda happen. The failure on the part of Lapid and the Arabs to do the same surprises and disappoints me. (For clarity, this would mean Lapid and the Arabs voting for Herzog – not sitting on the sidelines and pouting, and also not voting for Bibi.) He didn’t hold out for an ideologically ideal setup. He got what he wanted (I’d bet; I’d be surprised if he doesn’t get the Finance Ministry), said yes, and that was that. That’s good politics. Odeh and Lapid? I don’t get what they did at all.
Yesh Atid is looking for an agreement with Yisrael Beitenu or already has one that Yisrael Beitenu will not enter the government unless it can take Yesh Atid with it. Avigdor Lieberman wants an important post, and having 17 seats to bargain wih gives him a much better argument than having just 6, so Lieberman has a reason for agreeing to this.
Of course, there are 61 even without him, but nobody in charge likes such a narrow coalition, although it has happened before.
So Yesh Atid, which wants to get into the Netanyahu government nominated nobody. Its voters also were promised it would not endorse Netanyahu.
Error! Error!
Sorry, it is Koolanu and Kahlon that Yesh Atid is supposedly looking to make a demand on its behalf to be dragged into the government.
I was making a face at this story because you’d said YB (why Lieberman would want to help Lapid I have no idea). But this theory is slightly more credible if Lapid has made some sort of deal with Kahlon.
Won’t happen though. Shas and UTJ won’t stand for it.
!אין עתיד ביש עתיד
For those of you who don’t speak Hebrew, I will translate:
There is no future in Yesh Atid (which translates as “There is a future”)!
Muchissimas Gracias.
There is no coalition yet. Look what happened last time between 2 and 3.
Dear Knesset Jeremy:
I always agreed with you Jeremy, and wrote vigorously defending the basic integrity of your method & what I called the “spread”. I wrote, on this site–
“Do you believe in Jeremy’s method? I do.”
I wrote about the fact that the “spread” never really traded consistently below 8-10, usually coming in at 12-16 for much of the polling season. People see what they want to see.
Those that differed with you and the obvious mathematical impossibility of a Herzog workable coaltion were driven by highly partisan and ideological politics and good ol’ fashioned wishful thinking.
I have a LAW:
“A great deal of intelligence can be invested in ignorance when the need for illusion is great.”
I am quoting 1974 Saul Bellow from his essay: “To Jerusalem and Back”
Keep up the good work and keep the faith, yours truly, BDW
There was no reason to disagree with you (except if the election results had been different, and a Likud led coalition with Likud, Bayit Yehudi, Shas, UTJ and Yachad had it made the cut, plus at least one of either Kulanu or Yisrael Beitenu did not add up to at least 61)
As a Canadian, I have to say I really appreciate how structured the government formation process in Israel is. In Canada the first crack is given by convention to the outgoing government, and only if they resign or lose their first vote in parliament does another party get a chance to win the confidence of the House. In practice they usually resign pretty quickly, but it’s not very clear cut.
Kulanu really had no choice given the seat margin between Likud and Labor. Had they been even in seats, Kulanu would have been able to go in a different direction.
Dream on, Kulanu was never going to the reds.
Increase in turnout helped Likud. Although Labor did better than last time, it did worse among middle income with Herzog rather than Yachomovich.
http://www.haaretz.com/news/israel-election-2015/.premium-1.648430
Well done, Jeremy! I have thoroughly enjoyed your polling updates (as well as most! of the comments) and really like that now the election is done with, you can offer us your heartfelt “two cents!” Kudos!
If I could request something, could we have a prediction from you about what cabinet portfolios each party will be allotted? This seems like the next step in the predictions process (and while much less scientific-though man! were 98% of “professional polls” wrong or what!) still- I would like to hear what you think parties like Likud, Beyit Yehudi and Kulanu will end up with. I’ve heard the ratio is about 4 mandates per cabinet seat…while a lot of parties are not interested in expanding the total number of seats, making this process even more difficult!)
In particular, what do you think Bennett would be satisfied with, and can he still get things like Internal Security or even defense (seeing that Likud pretty much poached a lot of his party’s supporters to rally around Bibi instead?)
Thanks and keep up the great work: I’ll keep listening to VOI for your analysis, too (in stereo, no less!)
Is there or is there not something going on with a claim by Yachad that they should be in Knesset because enough votes for them were illegally invalidated to make the difference??
http://esseragaroth.blogspot.com/2015/03/israeli-election-shenanigans-suprised.html
He writes that sources are telling him that maybe 13,000 votes for Yachad were disqualified while they are short only 11,000 and 12,000 (although the thought occurs to me that maybe they picked 13,000 because it would get them over the threshold!)
There is a claim that some polling places had imitation Yachad ballot notes that were later not counted because they said Eliyahu Yishai, not Eli Yishai. (Of course there might not have been too many of those printed)
The writer of the blog post thinks that, had Yachad had made it in, there would be one less mandate (MK) for the Likud Party, one less mandate for the Meretz Party, one less mandate for the Untied Arab Parties, and one less mandate for another party.
I suspect the claims are grossly exaggerated, its a bitter pill to swallow for Eli Yishai and Rav Mazuz. and Yachad supporters. But the Central Elections Committee Chairman Justice Salim Joubran clearly announced yesterday that there nothing of any significance in the voting that would alter the election results. So that puts Yachad’s claim to rest I would think.
If you want my take, its a message from above, a smack for both Deri and Yishai for their disgraceful public spat and worse besmirching the name of Rav Ovadia. Only the smack for Yishai was worse for obvious reasons.
I don’t think the Marzel supporters that voted for Yachad will care much about what Joubran says.
Dear Jeremey,
If Yachad had made it in how would that have impacted the results. Is it correct that the right/religious/Kahlon would have grown to 70 (increase of 3 from 67)?
And which parties would Yachad’s 4 seats been deducted from?
* Dear Jeremy
Sorry about that typo. And thanks again for the great service you provide through this site!
If Liberman gets Defense, Lapid would be perfect for Foreign.
I think Lapid’s obsession with religion and the Haredim was down right disgusting and he received his just rewards, the path to nowhere. Having said all that, I too think he would have been perfect for Foreign.
Hey guys,
Today’s The Hill has piece by Mellman that offers another possibility why the Israeli polls missed the Likud lead:
http://thehill.com/opinion/mark-mellman/236860-mark-mellman-flawed-campaign?ncid=newsltushpmg00000003
If it was really a choice between those two parties, why is it that a majority of voters voted for the other eight parties?
There was not a single poll that showed the Anti-Netanyahu Phase 2 Bloc with a majority.
Netanyahu gained his seats from his future coalition partners, no one else.
Good point!
Not a single poll, not one showed a BB coalition coming in short. No matter:
Every American I encountered before the election– in conversation, online, on the phone–all thought that Herzog was heading to victory—some feared it, most were cheerleading it.
The American Mind just cannot process the correct data input—that Israel’s electoral system is a mosaic: coalition-based, parliamentary, multiple-parties with multiple constituencies, etc.
The American Mind also cannot see Israeli Arabs as they really are ( a schitzophrenic, mixed-bag) & thought that they would, naturally, join a “Left” coalition. When people say that Israeli Arabs are “left”, I have no idea what they mean. Communist?
The American political reality now is dominated by a nasty and sharp schism and gaping chasm between 2 big parties and 2 distinct ideologies or world-views. See Dr. Mordechai Kedar’s OpEd (dated March 25th): “Bittersweet Impressions from a USA Lecture Tour”.
The PM of Israel is not like the POTUS–to their respective populations. In some ways, the PM has seemingly more power—Israel is a small, close-knit country. In most practical ways, a good deal less.
Mellman’s point about polling techniques is valid by industry standards. Also we may indeed be returning to a pre-1995 period were large parties representing the bulk of the electorate dominate. Sectorial parties will round out coalitions but their leverage in on the wane.
It’s not the American mind; it’s the press. You get similar misreporting of the American scene by the Israeli press, such as the overplaying of the partisan Senate “torture” report.
I’ve learned long ago that internal reporting on foreign countries is wildly inaccurate. The press gets to really play up their leftist biases (with help from the native press, no doubt) with much less chance of having to answer for it.
I think Bennett will have to settle for Education and Religious Affairs.
The American defense/ security establishment will balk at Liberman at defense. Bibi will keep the foreign ministry and defense with Likud for internal and external reasons.
Would not be suprised to see one of the Meridor brothers return either to Washington or a special negotiator. Both are respected in both official Washington and the American Jewish community.
A sensible government would take up Rivlin’s suggestion of writing a constitution rather than piecemeal hot potatoes like the Jewish state bill.
Giving largest party automatic first shot an interesting idea but not a slam dunk win for the right. ZU, YA and even Meretz can easily merge into a Democratic Union. The right and religious parties would have a harder time creating one big nationalist party.
The strong showing of the Left in the Army vote worthy of more analysis.
Stav Shaffir was dynamite at J Street and will be hard for diaspora rightists to attack.
Bibi has shown himself a wus in his backtracking. Need to double up on his ice cream quota. To paraphrase Karl Marx, his last government was a tragedy – this one will be a farce.
“The strong showing of the Left in the Army vote worthy of more analysis.”
I don’t think so personally. The army vote would skew to youth, no? Not surprising that the left would do well there.
Army and prison, etc. A breakdown would be nice.
There was a united religious party in the first Knesset. (They still run together in Tel Aviv.) The official cause for the breakup was Mizrachi running a female candidate.
http://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahus-arab-droves-warning-may-have-been-decisive-in-his-victory/
Would say that, the pollsters need to find a reason for their failure, what a lamentable excuse though. Even that does not explain the exit polls.
Jeremy – what’s this about Kulanu withdrawing from coalition talks with Likud? If Likud can’t get a majority, what happens next?
They still have a lot of time. If they can’t I guess Herzog would get a chance.
Herzog can’t craft a majority with these numbers though. At best, half of the Joint List MKs would sit with him him. That would mean he need not only Kulanu, but also either YB or one of the Haredi parties. There’s no way Lieberman and Odeh will sit in the same coalition, and no way either Haredi party would defect after the offer Netanyahu just made.
So if Kahlon and Bibi can’t work things out… new election?
The problem is getting UTJ and Shas to sit with YA. And vice versa. Theoretically, he could form a government with Kulanu relying on the 13 votes of the List from the outside to get him over 60. But that’s not likely. Nor is it likely that the List would be asked to be part of the government, or that they would agree to be.
He can’t rely on all 13 of those votes either. Ra’am and Balad in particular.
What is Labor’s realistic path back to power? They have not won the most seats since 1999. Without Linvi’s party, they are hovering around 20 seats and 15% of the vote. The right is not going to magically collapse despite its feuds. All the Shas and Yachad feud did was prevent an extra two or three right-wing/religious MKs. That’s not happening again. Either ex-Shas voters return to Shas and/or UTJ or Yishai and Bennett form an alliance. Netanyahu is not going to pull a Sharon and dynamite the Likud. Labor is unlikely to substantively moderate its socialist economics to attract centrist parties. Labor’s only goal seems to be trying to re-brand itself after each subsequent loss. Next election, they’ll present the new-new-new Labor Party. And they’ll lose. When Tony Blair re-branded Labor and Bill Clinton did the same to the Democrats, they actually pulled their party away from the left. They didn’t just change the font on their signs.
Labor has two, possibly three, natural partners right now: Hatnuah, Meretz, and the communist Hadash if it dissociates itself from the Arab Bloc. That brings them to about 35 seats out of 120. Yesh Atid is not a natural partner. Nor is Kulanu. Nor is a bulk of the Arab List; Balad and Ta’al are openly seditious. I’m sure Labor’s and Meretz’s gay voters will just love Ra’am’s Koranically-inspired prescription for their lifestyles. Lapid didn’t recommend Herzog because Yesh Atid’s economic policies are irreconcilable to Labor’s: one is neo-liberal, the other is socialist. I won’t be surprised if Yesh Atid votes in favor of at least some of the upcoming government’s economic reforms. Yesh Atid also supports mandatory army service and Labor had at least one candidate who recommended not serving in an army of occupation or whatever. Of course Labor’s candidate selection is another issue all together. Yesh Atid is positioning itself as the centrist alternative and that requires being seen as Center and not Left. There’s no point in being tied to Herzog, Livni and Gal-On if that’s the plan. If all goes according to Lapid’s intricate chess game that he imagines himself playing, then he and Kahlon will be dictating terms to Netanyahu after the next election and putting the Haredi back in opposition.
I’m curious what Livni and her ilk are likely to do. Is the Zionist Union alliance one of temporary convenience like the Likud-Israel Beitnu merger or is Livni’s party simply going to be absorbed into Labor? It’s hard to find much ideological difference between Labor and Hatnuah at this point. Labor had to give Livni special dispensation to secure this alliance for a net gain of 3 seats (24) compared to 2013 (15+6). She has found herself in a worse position politically than last election. Near as I can tell, there are 4 Livnites in the next Knesset (Livni, Peretz, Hasson, Svetlova) vs. six in the 32nd Knesset. Robert Tibayev was left in the unrealistic 28th spot.
I think Labor’s path back to power is with a charismatic Mizrahi leader who has combat experience.
And with a more “mainstream” Arab party, as you suggest, and which polls suggest Israeli Arabs would like to see.
people forget that Ben Gurion was decisive and willing to make hard comromises but rather uncharismatic and seldom “loved”. Labor needs to stick to its path and build on a solid electoral showing. Buji is a solid anti-bibi worthy of continuing in his role. Herut stuck with Begin for 29 years and a tongue tied moses had a 40 year run. The party needs to reach out to the periphery on the grass roots level based on social and economic issues.
Ben Gurion lived in a very different era.
excellent analysis
It appears the Israelis want a two-party-plus system. That is, they will make sure there are two large parties (as Americans did when the federalist party died) plus a number of smaller ones. Labor dies as Kadima arose, Labor arose as Kadima died.
Jeremy, I think your prediction of 66 is going to be pretty accurate
However the polls were garbage
Most commentators I have read seem to blame the electorate for lying, not saying, voting at the end, etc. all of these I find racist and anti-Semitic. In other countries democratic votes are broadly respected, even politicians in the UK keep harping on that Hamas was elected by a majority.
The fact is that deep suspicion must rest with the poll companies and the claims of political bias can not be overlooked.
Lastly, the correct predictor of the outcome, Sapir, is well worth a read:
http://sapiranalytics.com/polls/he/
best rgds and thanks for all your hard work. I won’t blame you as messenger 😉
Apparently, some in Labor can’t help themselves. They’re like Charlie Brown and the football.
http://www.haaretz.com/news/national/.premium-1.649515
Bayit Yehudi threatening to pull out of coalition talks: http://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Politics-And-Diplomacy/Likud-Bayit-Yehudi-expected-to-engage-in-tense-portfolio-bartering-395662
Everyone, *this* is why Bayit Yehudi won only eight seats this time. The Israeli right wanted to avoid just this type of spate, which Bennett has managed to pull off anyway. Sure, you can argue that Likud cannibalized votes from Bayit Yehudi, but that misses the point that it was Bayit Yehudi that made itself vulnerable to Likud in the first place.
The reason Israel’s right wing trusted Likud over Bayit Yehudi is because Bayit Yehudi is constantly having such an inexplicably hard time working with its natural allies, the other right wing parties.
This is two elections in a row now that Bennett has chosen brinksmanship as a first resort so early in negotiations with fellow right-wingers. Last time he did it in tandem with Lapid, this time he’s going it alone as only Kachlon could conceivably team up with Bennett and he just doesn’t seem interested in games right now. Going it alone, Bennett is pretty much all bark and no bite and has little to gain in negotiations, but stands to lose even more in public support.
If Bennett keeps it up, Bayit Yehudi might be down to four seats next election…