Archive for October, 2011


On August 3rd the Knesset started an 88-day recess. Over that time the plenum did meet four times. On August 16 and 23 the Knesset met to discuss 4 motions each. On September 19 and October 24 the Knesset discussed 5 motions each. No laws were discussed over the near three month period.

Tomorrow, October 31, the Knesset will get back to work. The day’s agenda starts off with speeches from Speaker Rivlin, President Peres, Prime Minister Netanyahu and Opposition Leader Livni. Following the festivities, the Knesset will vote on five no-confidence motions from the opposition which are expected to fail.

A Channel 99 internet poll of a group representative of Israeli citizens conducted by Panels Polling Company and broadcast Thursday night found that Kadima is dropping fast. According to the poll Kadima would win 14 seats if led by Livni and would drop from the largest party to the fourth largest party if Mofaz were to lead Kadima with 13 seats.The poll also examined which of the current three Meretz MKs could bring the most seats for the small far left party.

Current Knesset seats in[brackets]

33 [27] Likud
25 [08] Labor
14 [15] Yisrael Beitenu
14 [28] Livni Kadima (Mofaz Kadima 13)
07 [11] Shas
27 [31] Other Parties

Meretz: MK Horowitz 6 – MK Gilon 4 – MK Gal-On 4

Another post-Shalit release poll shows that the Likud and Labor are both enjoying higher approval ratings than before the Knesset took their 88-day summer recess. The numbers indicate that both Likud and Labor have earned most of their additional support from former Kadima voters.

Globes Poll of 500 citizens reflecting Israel’s population was conducted by Smith Institute on Thursday

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

33 [27] Likud
20 [08] Labor
17 [28] Kadima
14 [15] Yisrael Beitenu
10 [11] Shas
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
04 [04] National Union
03 [03] Jewish Home
03 [03] Meretz
04 [04] Hadash
03 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
03 [03] Balad
00 [05] Independence

70 [65] Total Nationalist Camp

The Channel 2 poll carried out by Sarid and broadcast on October 26th confirms the general public looked favorably on Netanyahu’s decision to facilitate Gilad Shalit’s release. The poll gives Likud its best showing since former Prime Minister Ariel Sharon won the 2003 election with 38 seats (which became 40 after the merger with former Minister Natan Sharansky’s party). Another interesting aspect of the poll is that the eight smaller parties each currently with five seats or fewer fall from a combined 31 to 22.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

37 [27] Likud
22 [08] Labor
17 [28] Kadima
15 [15] Yisrael Beitenu
07 [11] Shas
22 [31]Other Parties

The Channel 2 Sarid poll had a statistical error of +/-4.5 percentage points.

An analysis of the eleven polls conducted between Aug 1 and Oct 1 show that Israeli opinion has shifted during the Knesset’s 88-day summer recess. Over the recess the main headlines reflected in the polls involved the domestic social justice tent protests, the Palestinian U.N. statehood bid and the Middle East’s rapid change in the aftermath of the Arab Spring. No polls were conducted in October, so we do not know yet the impact of Gilad Shalit’s release.

Let’s go party by party.

Prime Minister Netanyahu’s ruling Likud party never dipped below 22 seats in the polls, and their 22-seat showing was part of a scenario poll that had the Tent Party winning 20 seats which is highly unlikely. However, the Likud only had one showing over 30 seats, and that was a poll that excluded the non-Jewish vote. Two and a half years ago Likud received 27 seats. This past August and September the party received 26-28 seats in eight of the eleven polls conducted over the two month period.

Kadima, currently with 28 seats, won the most seats in the 2009 election but still found themselves in the opposition. Kadima’s numbers have been sliding from a high of 25 in early August to a low of 13 if former Defense Minister Mofaz defeats Opposition Leader Livni in the Kadima primary.

Foreign Minister Liberman’s Yisrael Beitenu party received 15-18 seats in ten of the eleven polls. The exception was the Jewish vote poll, which gave them only 10, showing the party has a significant amount of non-Jewish support, most likely from the non-Jewish U.S.S.R. immigrants as well as Druze voters thanks to Y.B.’s Druze MK Hamad Amar.

MK Yacimovich has at least temporarily brought Labor back to life. The party captured 13 seats in 2009 and was left with only eight following Defense Minister Barak’s split from the party. In August, before Yacimovich was elected chairwoman, the party polled a high of 11 and a low of seven. After her election Labor is polling at or near the low-mid 20’s.

Shas, currently with 11 seats, polled 12-13 in the four August polls and dropped to 9-10 in the September polls. U.T.J., currently with 5 seats, polled between 4-6 seats in all eleven polls. The National Union, currently with 4 seats, polls 4-5 seats by itself, and 7-9 when merged with Jewish Home. Jewish Home polled at it’s current representation of 3 seats on its own in all but two polls, with a high of 5 in the Jewish only poll.

Meretz, currently with 3 seats, polled between a high of six seats and a low of not passing the threshold in scenario polls where there were newer left-wing alternatives. Barak’s Independence Party, currently with 5 seats following the split from Labor, passed the threshold in just one of the eleven polls. The three Arab parties went from polling 11 (their current representation) in August to 8-9 in September. The most notable result of the Arab parties in the polls is for the mixed Jewish-Arab Communist Hadash Party, which did not pick up even one seat in the Jewish only poll.

A theoretical Tent/Social Justice Party dropped from 20 seats in August to four in September. Other hypothetical scenarios had a Yair Lapid party winning only two seats and an Aryeh Deri party not passing the two-seat threshold. The Green Party passed the threshold in two polls. The Youth Party failed to pass the threshold when polled.

Poll Current #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 #8 #9 #10 #11
Kadima 28 25 19 25 18 22 24 16 18 M 13 L 17 18
Likud 27 26 22 29 27 25 24 28 26 28 27 32
Yisrael Beitenu 15 15 15 16 16 15 16 15 18 17 17 10
Shas 11 12 12 13 12 9 10 N/A 9 9 9 9
Labor 8 11 7 11 10 Y 22 P 18 25 22 21 19 26
Yahadut Hatorah/ UTJ 5 6 6 5 6 6 6 N/A 6 6 6 4
National Union 4 5 5 4 4 *9 *9 N/A *7 4 4 4
Jewish Home 3 3 3 3 4 *9 *9 N/A *7 3 3 5
Meretz 3 4 0 4 6 4 5 N/A 5 5 4 6
Arab Parties 11 11 11 9 11 8 8 N/A 9 9 9 0
Independence 5 0 0 1 3 0 0 N/A 0 1.5 1.5 0
Social Justice/Tent Party 0 N/A 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 4
Green Party 0 2 0 N/A 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 1
Yair Lapid Party 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 2 2 N/A
Aryeh Deri Party 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.5 1.5 N/A
Youth Party 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 1
Poll #1: Aug 1 Jpost A
Poll #2: Aug 1 Jpost B
Poll #3: Aug 3 Makor Rishon
Poll #4: Aug 31 Makor Rishon
Poll #5: Sep 13 Dialog A
Poll #6: Sep 13 Dialog B
Poll #7: Sep 21 Chan 99
Poll #8: Sep 25 Haaretz
Poll #9: Sep 26 Chan 10 A
Poll #10: Sep 26 Chan 10 B
Poll #11: Sep 30 Jewish Only
* = N.U. and J.H. together
Y = Yacimovich
P = Peretz
M = Mofaz
L = Livni

Parties must receive 2% of the valid votes (equivalent to 2.4 seats) to pass required threshold and receive Knesset representation.

A Jerusalem Post poll published on September 30th took a look at the Knesset if only Jews voted in the next election. Jews compose about 75% of Israel’s population.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [27] Likud
26 [08] Labor
18 [28] Kadima
10 [15] Yisrael Beitenu
09 [11] Shas
06 [03] Meretz
05 [03] Jewish Home/NRP
04 [04] National Union
04 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
04 [--] Social Justice/Tent Party
01 [--] Green Party
01 [--] Youth Party
00 [05] Independence

A Channel 10 poll was conducted by Maagar with a telephone poll on 26September 2011 with a maximum sampling error of 4.5%.

If elections held today (expressed in Knesset seats)

Current Knesset seats in [brackets], left column indicates seats if Mofaz led Kadima, middle column indicates seats if Livniled Kadima.

28 27 [27] Likud
21 19 [08] Labor
17 17 [15] Yisrael Beitenu
— 17 [28] Kadima headed by Livni
13 — [28] Kadima headed by Mofaz
09 09 [11] Shas
06 06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/U.T.J.
05 04 [03] Meretz
04 04 [04] National Union
03 03 [03] Jewish Home/NRP
02 02.[---] Yair Lapid Party
1.5 1.5[05]Ehud Barak Independence Party
1.5 1.5[--] Party lead by Aryeh Deri
09 09 [11] Arab parties

The poll was carried out Monday 25 September 2011 by Dialogue for Haaretz of a representativesample of 495 Israelis with a statistical error of +/-4.5 percentage points. The poll was published in Haaretz the following day.

If elections held today (expressed in Knesset seats)

Current Knesset seats in [brackets].

26 [27] Likud
22 [08] Labor
18 [15] Yisrael Beitenu
18 [28] Kadima
09 [11] Shas
07 [07] Jewish Home and National Union
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah
05 [03] Meretz
09 [11] Arab parties
00 [05] Independence

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 2,813 other followers