Category: Polls


Maariv Teleseker Poll: Likud 27, Labor 18/17, Kadima 16/14 and Y.B. 14

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March 9, 2012

The telephone poll was carried out on 4-6 March 2012 for Ma’ariv by Teleseker of a representative sample of 550 Israelis. Results were first published on NRG (Ma’ariv’s website) on 9 March 2012. I will have an analysis piece on the Jewish Press and will put up the link here when they put it up.

Poll #1

If elections were held today who would you vote for?

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

27 [27] Likud
14 [15] Yisrael Beitenu
18 [08] Labor
14 [28] Kadima led by Mofaz
21 [23] Shas, Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ, National Union and Jewish Home
26 [19] Yair Lapid Party, Independence, Meretz, Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al and Balad

Poll #2

27 [27] Likud
14 [15] Yisrael Beitenu
17 [08] Labor
16 [28] Kadima led by Livni
21 [23] Shas, Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ, National Union and Jewish Home
25 [19] Yair Lapid Party, Independence, Meretz, Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al and Balad

National Camp 62 seats

Center-Left-Arabs 58 seats

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Haaretz Dialogue Poll: Likud 35/37, Y.B. 15/16, Labor 14, Mofaz led Kadima 12 and Livni led Kadima 10

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The telephone poll was carried out on 4-5 March 2012 for Haaretz by Dialogue of a representative sample of 497 Israelis, with a statistical error of +/- 4.5 percentage points. Partial results were published in Haaretz on 8 March 2012 and the rest were published the next day. The big winner is the national camp which scores between 71 to 74 seats. The big loser is Livni who has a poor showing a few weeks before her primary. I will have an analysis piece on the Jewish Press and will put up the link here when they put it up.

Poll #1

If elections were held today who would you vote for?

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

35 [27] Likud
15 [15] Yisrael Beitenu
14 [08] Labor
12 [28] Kadima led by Mofaz
09 [11] Shas
08 [—] Yair Lapid Party
07 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [07] National Union and Jewish Home
05 [03] Meretz
05 [04] Hadash
05 [07] Ra’am-Ta’al and Balad
00 [05] Independence

Poll #2

37 [27] Likud
16 [15] Yisrael Beitenu
14 [08] Labor
10 [28] Kadima led by Livni
09 [11] Shas
07 [—] Yair Lapid Party
07 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [07] National Union and Jewish Home
05 [03] Meretz
05 [04] Hadash
05 [07] Ra’am-Ta’al and Balad
00 [05] Independence

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Channel 99 Panels Poll: Likud 30, Labor 16, Y.B. 14, Kadima 13, Lapid 11

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February 24, 2012

A Panels Polling Company internet based poll broadcast by Knesset Channel 99 on February 22, 2012, shows Prime Minister Netanyahu’s Likud remains at the top with 30 seats, but the nationalist block he represents drops to 64 seats. Foreign Minister Liberman’s Yisrael Beitenu comes in with 14 seats.  Labor receives 16 seats in the poll and becomes the leader of the center-left block, with Kadima’s 13 and Lapid’s 11 within striking distance. Meretz’s seven seat finish is most likely a bump thanks to their recent leadership primary. National Union’s six seats compared to Jewish Home’s three seats will help their bargaining strength during the merger negotiations. Shas drops to six seats, UTJ drops to five, and Hadash and Ra’am-Ta’al drop to three each. Balad maintains their three seats while Independence doesn’t pass the threshold.

 

If elections were held today who would you vote for?
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

30 [27] Likud
16 [08] Labor
14 [15] Yisrael Beitenu
13 [28] Kadima
11 [—] Yair Lapid Party
07 [03] Meretz
06 [04] National Union
06 [11] Shas
05 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
03 [03] Jewish Home
03 [03] Balad
03 [04] Hadash
03 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
00 [05] Independence

Panels also asked voters of three different demographics which candidate they support in the Kadima leadership race next month.

Entire population: Livni 24% ― Mofaz 16% ― Dichter 15% ― None of them 32%

2009 Kadima voters: Livni 43% ― Dichter 15% ― Mofaz 12% ― None of them 25%

Plan to vote Kadima in 2012 or 2013: Livni 68% ― Mofaz 19% ― Dichter 13%

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Geocartography Poll: Likud 39, Y.B. 13, Kadima/Labor 12, Shas 9, Lapid 6

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February 19, 2012

The nationalist camp grows to 76 seats according to a poll conducted by Professor Avi Degani, President of the Geocartography group, on Friday, February 17, 2012. Prime Minister Netanyahu’s Likud jumps to a term-high 39 seats, surpassing his previous high of 38 in early January. Foreign Minister Liberman’s Yisrael Beitenu finishes second with 13 seats, a drop of two from their current position and a seat above their term-low 12. Opposition Leader Livni’s Kadima, which is in the middle of a primary battle, drops to 12 seats, a loss of more than half of their current seats. Labor captures 12 seats as well, and Shas rounds out the top five parties with nine seats. Former journalist Yair Lapid’s party drops to six seats, its lowest showing since September. If the National Union and Jewish Home would merge before elections, the poll places them as the fifth largest party with ten seats. According to this poll, Netanyahu could form a coalition of 62 seats with Liberman, National Union and Jewish Home without the need for any ultra-orthodox or center-left parties.

 

If elections were held today who would you vote for?

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

 

39 [27] Likud
13 [15] Yisrael Beitenu
12 [28] Kadima
12 [08] Labor
09 [11] Shas
06 [—] Yair Lapid Party
05 [04] National Union
05 [03] Jewish Home
05 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
04 [03] Meretz
10 [11] Balad, Hadash and Ra’am-Ta’al
00 [05] Independence

 

76 Nationalist Camp

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Dahaf Yediot Polls: Likud 28, Labor 16-15, Lapid 14-13, Kadima 13-10, Y.B. 13-12

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February 13, 2012

Dahaf conducted two telephone polls for newspaper Yediot Ahronot on 10 February 2012 with a sample of 500 respondents and a sampling error of 4.5%. Anaylisis will be provided with a Jewish Press link when it is up on their website.

If elections were held today who would you vote for?

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

Scenario #1:

28 [27] Likud
15 [08] Labor
13 [—] Yair Lapid Party
13 [28] Kadima Led By Livni
12 [15] Yisrael Beitenu
08 [11] Shas
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [—] Aryeh Deri Party
05 [03] Meretz
04 [04] National Union
02 [03] Jewish Home
11 [11] Balad, Hadash and Ra’am-Ta’al
00 [05] Independence

Scenario #2:

28 [27] Likud
16 [08] Labor
14 [—] Yair Lapid Party
13 [15] Yisrael Beitenu
10 [28] Kadima Led By Mofaz
08 [11] Shas
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [03] Meretz
04 [04] National Union
03 [—] Aryeh Deri Party
02 [03] Jewish Home
11 [11] Balad, Hadash and Ra’am-Ta’al
00 [05] Independence

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