Panels conducted a scenario poll that was broadcast by Knesset Channel 99 on Jan 28 2014.
If the Likud prevents Netanyahu from reaching an agreement that involves giving up territory and elections were tomorrow – Who would you vote for?
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
18 [–] New Netanyahu Led Party
17 [20] Likud
16 [15] Labor
16 [12] Bayit Yehudi
11 [06] Meretz
10 [19] Yesh Atid
07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [11] Yisrael Beitenu
05 [11] Shas
04 [06] Movement
04 [04] Hadash
04 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
03 [03] Balad
00 [02] Kadima
50 [61] Right-Religious
70 [59] Center-Left-Arab
Knesset Jeremy Analysis: The scenario poll that many KnessetJeremy readers have asked for. The results – a new Netanyahu party would win the election and become the largest party. This scenario would make the block theory completely irrelevant.
Additional Questions:
Where do the Netanyahu party voters come from?
46% Likud Beitenu, undecided 14%, Labor 11%, Yesh Atid 11%, Meretz 9%, Livni/Movement 9%.
What should Netanyahu do if the Likud opposes a proposed peace agreement?
51% Accept the Likud’s decision (77% among Likud Beitenu voters), 25% Create a new party (7% among Likud Beitenu voters), 24% Don’t know (16% among Likud Beitenu voters).
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
prompting Likud Central Committee activists to refrain from provoking Netanyahu to split, by allowing him to pursue his anti-Likud platform policies, and then, when the damage is done, he splits anyway.
Sounds familiar.
We in trouble.
prompting Likud Central Committee activists to refrain from provoking Netanyahu to split, by allowing him to pursue his anti-Likud platform policies, and then, when the damage is done, he splits anyway.
Sounds familiar.
We in trouble.
Thanks תודה and God Bless, Gidon Ariel gidon.ariel@gmail.com גדעון אריאל cell 054-5665037, home 02-5354586, USA (VoIP) 516-321-1846 Israel fax 1532-5354586, USA fax 623-433-4874 Maale Hever, DN Har Hebron 90420 Israel מעלה חבר, ד”נ הר חברון “Happy are those who have discovered that the secret of life is to be nice to others”
Why do you count Netanyahu’s new party on the right? If he agrees to a deal like that he is the leader of the left wing camp, not the right
I counted the potential Netanyahu party on the center-left
First of all, thank so much for this poll! Man, what I have been waiting for it!
Second; I wonder if in this case one could assume that Bayit Yehudi, Likud and Yisrael Beiteinu form one bloc (denote BY, L, YB) (maybe also before the election)? I find it quite interesting that Shas would fall to 5 seats, I guess Likud picks up big part of the 6 seats. In that case add Shas to BY,L,YB bloc and probably (?) also UTJ.
Then comes the following problem:
1. If BY, L, YB, Shas and UTJ form one bloc after the election; would Netanyahu surrender and accept to join this coalition (despite no coming peace agreement)? if yes, then there would be a “real” nationalist coalition. if not, then what? alternative 2
2. alternative 1 fails and Netanyahu gets to form a coalition.
First, would Yisrael Beiteinu join Netanyahu? (yes, then should they not have been in the Netanyahu party all along???).
Lets say not. Then comes the following dilemma: even if Meretz would sit with Netanyahu (unlikely, as no peace agreement Netanyahu likes can Meretz like (?)), all falls on the arab parties. Without them Netanyahu will not have a majority. And they are not probably going to be in that coalition, or????
Finally I would say that the most preferable case is that Netanyahu does as the last question in the poll indicates and does not form a new party (the important numbers there should be what the Likud Beiteinu voters say, which with an overwhelming majority wants him to accept the decision of Likud).
I would add to my last comment that what is of great importance here is if Lieberman still is in charge of Yisrael Beiteinu or if he has join the Netanyahu party. In the second case there must probably only remain the “real” nationalist part of Yisrael Beiteinu and then it would probably not run into a Netanyahu led coalition. The first case does not seem likely, thinking about Lieberman’s latest position on a peace agreement.
This poll is unrealistic because there are too many unknowns : who would lead the likud list ? The beitenu one ? And YB/BY/L could decide to join their lists in order to become the largest faction…
Also 5 seats for shas is way too low.
This is what I have always said – most of the voters for Shas are not Chareidi, and quite a few are not religious. (This is to their credit, BTW, that they attract such a wide variety.) To some extent this is true of BY; actually they have been explicit about it.
Since Shas is to the Left of its constituency, it is not at all strange that in extremis, the more right-wing Shas voters would temporarily vote Likud to prevent what they would consider an extreme danger to the country.
I find it interesting that no-one has bothered to poll Shas voters to find out their own self-definitions (religious and political group).
BTW, since we aren’t told the methodology, I wonder how in fact UTJ numbers are determined the pollsters. My guess is that they make them up.
UTJ numbers are not made up, they are able to poll them. Of course it makes it more difficult and that comes across is the margin of error.
KJ – Thank you for the correction, although I wonder how any responses from an internet poll (e.g., Panels) would have any meaning there. (Or do they do some phone polling?)
Do you think I am correct about Shas, or do you have another explanation? I do not think that the Chareidi population suddenly exploded when Shas was created. And I know from speaking to people that their constituency is not all Chareidi,; the people in my area in my prfession do not tend to be religious.
In general the number of land lines is dropping considerably, particularly among 18-35 audiences. So you either go for cellphones or internet. If you look at my analysis of the difference of accuracy between the 2009 and 2013 results you will see that 100% land line companies were the furthest off.
The number of Haredim with internet is actually higher than the number of Haredim with TV or land lines (many Haredim only use cellphones). The good thing about Panels is that they have enough Haredim in their database to compensate when doing a poll of 500 or so Israelis.
Shas – I think your suggestion makes sense. I’ve seen many internal polls on Shas voters and yes they are more to the right and yes there is a large traditional voter base. Before Shas was created these are voters who went with Likud during the days of Menachem Begin and Yitzchak Shamir.
Thank G-d this will never happen. Netanyahu doesn’t have the same respect Sharon commanded in 2004-2005 after crushing the Intifada. He doesn’t have a popular issue like the Gaza evacuation (and yes, evacuating Gaza was popular at the time among a significant majority of Israelis; it has only subsequently become unpopular as a result of the disastrous consequences).
I assume Likud and Bayit Yehudi wouldn’t join. Also the 11 Arab seats are out of the question as usual. He has 2 possible options:
1) Religious Alliance: Shas/UTJ and Yesh Atid won’t sit together so Meretz would have to be added. New Party (18)+ Labor (16)+ Meretz (11)+ Shas/UTJ (12)+ Movement (4)+ Israel Beitneu (5)= 66 This is probably his only real option but it seems doubtful that Meretz would sit with Netanyahu and Lieberman and the Haredi at the same time This coalition would go back to the days of the Haredi being the kingmakers and Deri would know it… a situation Israeli voters hate as evidenced by the rise of Yesh Atid.
2) Secular Alliance:18 (Bibi Party)+ 16 (Labor)+ Meretz (11)+ Yesh Atid (10)+ Movement (4)+ Israel Beitneu (5)= 64. Would Lieberman accept getting demoted from foreign minister to some minor cabinet position or will he sit in opposition and ride out the storm? 65% of Bibi’s coalition would be from parties left of his views. The Israeli/Arab issue is not the only major issue. Economics would also make such a coalition stillborn. Bibi and Lieberman are free market neo-liberals. Yesh Atid espouses economic populism. Labor and Meretz are 100% socialist. What happens when they have to pass a budget?
Both of these options would be very unattractive. Netanyahu would be potentially looking at a short-lived governments that is heavily left-wing in which his new party is barely the largest and prone to collapse if even the smallest partner withdraws. I think it is more realistic that he’ll lose an internal fight in Likud somewhere down the road against the “Young Guard” (Feiglin, Danon, Hotovely, etc), quietly retire as the second-longest serving PM and then be put forward as President of Israel where he can be a public advocate for the Jewish state until he’s in his 80s.
Hey!
I like your last five rows. Seems most likely.
Of course the big question is if Lieberman would still be leading Yisrael Beiteinu or has he taken his pro-PA guys from the party with him and joiined the Netanyahu party. The answer to that question is of great importance.
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/176862#.UukfhdL8LIU
read and think! According to this one could in the future see the Right being taken over by nationalists with nationalist leaders. Either Bibi accepts that fact or not …