The Geocartography Poll conducted by Professor Dagani shows that Prime Minister Netanyahu’s Likud would easily become the largest party with 38 seats, a gain of 11, without the addition of new parties by Yair Lapid or Aryeh Deri. Foreign Minister Liberman’s Yisrael Beitenu would come in second at 16, followed by Opposition Leader Livni’s Kadima closely behind at 15, a loss of 13. Labor, under new Chairwoman Yachimovich, would finish fourth with the 13 seats the party won in 2009. Shas would drop to eight seats and UTJ would be right behind them with seven seats. The biggest story of the poll is that the nationalistic camp would grow from 65 seats to 76 seats, giving Netanyahu the flexibility of excluding certain parties from the next government.
A scenario poll with the fictitious Lapid and Deri parties shows a different result. Likud would win 25 seats, a loss of two. Yair Lapid’s party would finish second with 20 seats, and Aryeh Deri’s party would tie for third place with 12 seats along with Yisrael Beitenu. 13 of the 32 seats distributed between the two fictitious parties are taken from the Likud, six from Kadima, four each from Labor and Yisrael Beitenu, two each from Shas and UTJ and one from Meretz. According to the poll the nationalistic camp would net 55 seats, a drop of 10. In this case Netanyahu would be able to form a coalition by wooing Lapid, Deri or perhaps Kadima.
If elections were held today, who would you vote for?
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
38 [27] Likud
16 [15] Yisrael Beitenu
15 [28] Kadima
13 [08] Labor
08 [11] Shas
07 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [03] Meretz
04 [04] National Union
03 [03] Jewish Home
00 [05] Independence
10 [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al and Balad
Scenario Poll:
25 [27] Likud
20 [—] Yair Lapid Party
12 [—] Aryeh Deri Party
12 [15] Yisrael Beitenu
09 [28] Kadima
09 [08] Labor
06 [11] Shas
05 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [03] Meretz
04 [03] Jewish Home
03 [04] National Union
00 [05] Independence
10 [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al and Balad
The poll was televised by Channel 1 on Jan 4 2012.
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
Not sure if I buy this poll. Seems way way too sporadic. Like why does the National Union have one more in one poll than in the other, same with Jewish Home? Their traditional voters wouldn’t be effected by the inclusion of Deri and Lapid.
It definitely is ephemeral. One can rather easily understand certain changes. Three months from now for example, it is unlikely the results would be the same. However, it does teach some things.
One thing I would like to know. Is there a “wouldn’t vote” category? And do these polls have a mergin of error?
The difference between National Union and Jewish Home can be solved with half seats, vote exchanges and the sephardic vote moving towards Deri.
The wouldn’t vote category has no purpose since the seats are distrubted based on the % that votes. No margin of error was reported, nor was the size of the sample. Prof. Dagani’s polls are usually quite respected, I wonder why the additional information wasn’t televised.
Yes, but it tells us where the votes come from. For example, the unusually high number for UTJ makes perfect sense considering what has happened the past couple of months – I personally asked my wife as a favor not to vote for Likud again – but where did they come from? The only two likely possiblities are Shas (this is how Askkenazi Chareidim who don’t like UTJ cast a protest vote) or people who normally don’t vote on principle. Unlike Dati Leumi, I don’t think Ashkenazi Chareidim normally vote for other parties. (Maybe some groups vote for Likud? No idea; we are, after all, a very varied bunch.)
I would still LOVE to see a poll of Shas voters asking them to describe their religious affiliation, using the usual four groups.
Under the scenario poll, the most likely government would be Likud-Lapid-Deri-Kadima/Labour. Lapid would never accept Shas, UTJ, NU or JH and Deri would never want the coalition to be overwhelmed by overtly secular forces, or Shas for that matter. I guess Likud could try to split Deri and Lapid’s party fates apart, likely going with Deri to appease his own MKs. But I don’t think that Deri, or Netanyahu, would appreciate being dependent on the National Union, and Lapid from the get go wouldn’t go for it. It would certainly be ironic if a Lapid and the Orthodox were dependent on each other for political power.
This is the problem with certain words – by “Orthodox” do you mean “Dati” or “Chareidi”? I recall that Mafdal made a coalition with Meretz and (Labor? Kadima?) to avoid civil mariage. So this is not new. (This, by the way, was the beginning of the bad blood between the religious camps, which continued into the Hitnatkut and the current “perfect storm”.)
Would Lapid really make a coalition with Deri? UTJ will make a coalition with anyone out of sheer survival. So would Shas, but joining with the Left will hurt them in the next election.
Anyways, your site is incredibly informational. I persist in reading your posts, because I know that I could be an extremely good expert basically if I would continue understanding and reading a number of tips from experts like you. I may additionally sign up to your list if you have one. That could help me know the most recent. Thanks