A Reshet Bet Radio scenario poll carried out by Shvakim Panorama and published by Haaretz and the Jerusalem Post on December 29, 2011, shows that fictional parties led by television icon Yair Lapid and liberal ultra-orthodox leader Aryeh Deri would dramatically shift public support. According to the poll Likud would lose three seats, Yisrael Beitenu one, Shas six and Kadima 18, while Labor would gain seven and Meretz would gain two. Recent polls had shown support for the two fictional parties dropping to the verge of missing the electoral threshold, but this poll shows that following the recent incidents involving the ultra-orthodox community, the public might be willing to take another look at the parties. It has long been the desire of the left for the two center-leaning parties to be created and take away votes from the right. However, in order for the center-left block to return to power, they would need either support from the other religious parties or the Arab parties. Both of those scenarios are unlikely since the religious claim that the left is inciting against their community and the Arab parties haven’t joined any government since the creation of the state. It would be difficult for the Likud to form a government, according to this poll, since the right-religious block makes up just 57 seats. Netanyahu would need to enlist the support of either the centrist-secular Yair Lapid or the centrist-religious Aryeh Deri.
If elections held today (expressed in Knesset seats)
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
24 [27] Likud
15 [—] Yair Lapid Party
15 [08] Labor
14 [15] Yisrael Beitenu
10 [28] Kadima
07 [—] Aryeh Deri Party
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [11] Shas
05 [03] Meretz
04 [04] National Union
04 [03] Jewish Home
11 [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al and Balad
00 [05] Independence
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
What I find interesting is that there is no drop in total support for any of the religious parties (counting Shas and Deri together), and even Mafdal gains, which I have not seen before.
But what is the margin of error? Could you modify the post to include it?
I was waiting on this poll for a while in order to get all the details. Haaretz and Jerusalem Post didn’t know the margin of error. Shvakim Panorama didn’t respond to my question. For some reason Haaretz didn’t give Shavkim Panorama credit and kept calling it an Israeli radio sponsered poll and they chose not to present the results of any of the non-Deri religious parties. This post has all the information I could gather.
Why would the total support for religious parties drop? There are just as many religious Israelis (i.e. ultra orthodox, haredi and traditional) as there were in 2009, if not slightly more.
They don’t really drop. Aryeh Deri is religious, but he has said in the past he wants a center-left government and doesn’t like Netanyahu.
If I may put my two cents in, there are two things to come into mind –
(1) Deri is from Shas, so you need to look at them in conjunction with each other.
(2) Shas is a Chareidi party with perhaps mostly non-Chareidi voters. The Chareidi population did not suddenly more than double – although undoubtedly a number of Sepahrdim did decide to call themsleves Chareidi – nor did the non-voting portion of the Chareidim suddenly start voting. So it is not directly dependent on the population (ditto for Mafdal/Jewish home, in the other direction).
Has anyone ever analyzed Shas voters, or just asked them to describe themselves?