A poll taken out by Maagar Mohot proves that even in a scenario where Liberman doesn’t take part in the next elections and the left wing’s savior Shelly Yacimovich leads the Labor party, Netanyahu’s Likud would form the next government. In the poll, Netanyahu’s Likud has a two-seat edge over Livni’s Kadima party 32-30, a gain of five and three seats, respectively. Yisrael Beitenu without Lieberman drops a seat to 14 and Labor led by Yacimovich drops to 7 seats. If Yishai leads Shas his party only loses one seat, and the other parties remain unchanged, aside from Meretz, which would pick up one seat. Another possible outcome would be a national-unity government of Likud and Kadima which could hold a narrow 62-seat coalition. As for president, Speaker Rivlin (Likud) leads former Speaker Itzik (Kadima) 61% to 15% with former minister Sharansky claiming 24% of the vote.
Telephone poll of a representative sample of 501 adult Israelis, including Israeli Arabs, carried out by Maagar Mohot Survey Institute (headed by Professor Yitzchak Katz) the week of 18 February and published in the Makor Rishon paper on 18 February 2011
In this poll Yisrael Beitenu was not headed by Liberman. Ehud Barak’s Independence party did not get enough votes to get into the Knesset.
If elections were held today (expressed in Knesset seats) Current Knesset seats in [brackets].
32 [27] Likud headed by Netanyahu
30 [28] Kadima headed by Livni
14 [15] Yisrael Beitenu not headed by Liberman
10 [11] Shas headed by Yishai
07 [08] Labor headed by Shelly Yacimovich
00 [05] Independence headed by Barak
05 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
03 [03] Jewish Home/NRP
04 [03] Meretz
04 [04] National Union
11 [11] Arab parties
Who would you like to be the next president?
Rivlin 61% Itzik 15% Sharansky 24%
32 [27] Likud headed by Netanyahu
30 [28] Kadima headed by Livni
14 [15] Yisrael Beitenu not headed by Liberman
10 [11] Shas headed by Yishai
07 [08] Labor headed by Shelly Yacimovich
00 [05] Independence headed by Barak
05 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
03 [03] Jewish Home/NRP
04 [03] Meretz
04 [04] National Union
11 [11] Arab parties
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
The loss of one seat from YB and from Shas cannot explain alone the 5 seats gained by the Likud in this poll. Would that mean that there is a clear wave of voters from the left (Kadima and Avodah) to Likud ?
Currently the right wing block has 65 seats, this poll gives the block a modest three seat increase. The biggest loss in this scenario is the Labor party that won 13 seats in the last election and would retain only seven. The decline of the Labor party is no doubt great news for Kadima, and even Meretz picks up a seat. My analysis is that the three seat gain of the right is Kadima voters moving to Likud, but the Labor voters leaving for Kadima are at least equal, if not more. I find it highly surprising that Y.B. does so well without Liberman, but it doesn’t surprise me that the left is abandoning Labor, even with Yacimovich in the lead.
Excellent information and facts! I have been browsing for something like that for some time finally. Thank you!