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The Geocartography Poll conducted by Professor Dagani shows that Prime Minister Netanyahu’s Likud would easily become the largest party with 38 seats, a gain of 11, without the addition of new parties by Yair Lapid or Aryeh Deri. Foreign Minister Liberman’s Yisrael Beitenu would come in second at 16, followed by Opposition Leader Livni’s Kadima closely behind at 15, a loss of 13. Labor, under new Chairwoman Yachimovich, would finish fourth with the 13 seats the party won in 2009. Shas would drop to eight seats and UTJ would be right behind them with seven seats. The biggest story of the poll is that the nationalistic camp would grow from 65 seats to 76 seats, giving Netanyahu the flexibility of excluding certain parties from the next government.

A scenario poll with the fictitious Lapid and Deri parties shows a different result. Likud would win 25 seats, a loss of two. Yair Lapid’s party would finish second with 20 seats, and Aryeh Deri’s party would tie for third place with 12 seats along with Yisrael Beitenu. 13 of the 32 seats distributed between the two fictitious parties are taken from the Likud, six from Kadima, four each from Labor and Yisrael Beitenu, two each from Shas and UTJ and one from Meretz. According to the poll the nationalistic camp would net 55 seats, a drop of 10. In this case Netanyahu would be able to form a coalition by wooing Lapid, Deri or perhaps Kadima.

If elections were held today, who would you vote for?

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

38 [27] Likud
16 [15] Yisrael Beitenu
15 [28] Kadima
13 [08] Labor
08 [11] Shas
07 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [03] Meretz
04 [04] National Union
03 [03] Jewish Home
00 [05] Independence
10 [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al and Balad

Scenario Poll:

25 [27] Likud
20 [—] Yair Lapid Party
12 [—] Aryeh Deri Party
12 [15] Yisrael Beitenu
09 [28] Kadima
09 [08] Labor
06 [11] Shas
05 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [03] Meretz
04 [03] Jewish Home
03 [04] National Union
00 [05] Independence
10 [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al and Balad

The poll was televised by Channel 1 on Jan 4 2012.

The Knesset Monday session lasted only three hours. Only two bills were discussed. One bill was passed in its third reading, and the other was interrupted in the middle. There were more bills on the agenda, but Speaker Rivlin called for a hard stop at 4 PM to ensure the MKs could get back home in time to light the seventh Hanukkah candles.

 

Non-Bills Summary

* Kadima’s no-confidence motion titled ‘The helplessness of the Netanyahu government to deal with the exclusion of women and the symptoms of extremism and violence in Israel’ was defeated 38-54 with 28 MKs not present.

* Labor and Meretz’s joint no-confidence motion titled ‘Fire fighters and fire system also continue to be abandoned after a disastrous year in the Carmel’ was defeated 39-55 with 26 MKs not present.

* Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al and Balad’s joint no-confidence motion titled ‘The government’s impotence in the face of increasing violence and criminality among the Arab population’ was defeated 28-55 with 37 MKs not present. (The title suggests their concern was about violence among the Arabs, but their speeches indicated they were actually concerned about violence towards the Arabs.)

 

Bills Summary

Amendment to the Retirement Age Bill

Labor, Welfare and Health Committee Chairman Katz (Likud) explained that the female retirement age will remain at 62 for the next five years. He said that raising the female retirement age while women are being persecuted is wrong and that the timing of this amendment is very necessary. He expressed hope that in five years the Knesset will choose to lower the female retirement age and repeal his amendment.

MK Itzik (Kadima) thanked all of the female MKs for supporting this bill and for their courage in convincing their male co-workers to support the bill. She slammed the finance minister as the only man who opposed this bill.

MK Gal-On (Meretz) said that this bill ensures female equality. She said that women shouldn’t have to retire at 67 like men, calling that unequal. She also slammed the finance minister.

MK Barakeh (Hadash) stressed that he was the original co-sponsor of this bill five years ago and slammed Itzik, Gal-On and others for trying to take the credit that he deserves.

The bill passed its second reading 73-0.
The bill passed its third reading 77-0.

MK Gilon (Meretz) slammed the government for their argument that in order to ensure the equality of women, women must have the same retirement age as men.

Finance Minister Steinitz (Likud) said that this vote is not cause for celebration, but that populism has conquered logic. He stated that women lost today because their pensions will remain lower since they retire earlier. He said that most of Europe has a female retirement age of 67 or higher. He said it is only a matter of time before both men and women will retire at 70 or older. He said that historians will look back on this moment as the Knesset rejecting sound economic logic for populism.

Amendment to the Broadcasting Authority Bill

Finance Committee Chairman Shama (Likud) explained that his amendment would upgrade the regulations on public broadcasting, including property regulations. Speaker Rivlin interrupted Shama and told him to finish presenting the bill tomorrow because the Knesset reached its hard stop.

A Reshet Bet Radio scenario poll carried out by Shvakim Panorama and published by Haaretz and the Jerusalem Post on December 29, 2011, shows that fictional parties led by television icon Yair Lapid and liberal ultra-orthodox leader Aryeh Deri would dramatically shift public support. According to the poll Likud would lose three seats, Yisrael Beitenu one, Shas six and Kadima 18, while Labor would gain seven and Meretz would gain two. Recent polls had shown support for the two fictional parties dropping to the verge of missing the electoral threshold, but this poll shows that following the recent incidents involving the ultra-orthodox community, the public might be willing to take another look at the parties. It has long been the desire of the left for the two center-leaning parties to be created and take away votes from the right. However, in order for the center-left block to return to power, they would need either support from the other religious parties or the Arab parties. Both of those scenarios are unlikely since the religious claim that the left is inciting against their community and the Arab parties haven’t joined any government since the creation of the state. It would be difficult for the Likud to form a government, according to this poll, since the right-religious block makes up just 57 seats. Netanyahu would need to enlist the support of either the centrist-secular Yair Lapid or the centrist-religious Aryeh Deri.

If elections held today (expressed in Knesset seats)

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

24 [27] Likud
15 [—] Yair Lapid Party
15 [08] Labor
14 [15] Yisrael Beitenu
10 [28] Kadima
07 [—] Aryeh Deri Party
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [11] Shas
05 [03] Meretz
04 [04] National Union
04 [03] Jewish Home
11 [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al and Balad
00 [05] Independence

Wednesday’s Knesset session lasted four hours. Nine bills were discussed. 17 bills were on the agenda, but Speaker Rivlin ruled that the session must end by 3 PM no matter what in order to allow the MKs to return home to light Hanukah candles for the second night. Five bills were advanced after passing their preliminary readings, two were defeated and two were withdrawn in order to avoid defeat. The bills advanced will force banks to inform customers of the history of an account they are joining into, limit the number of times a school book can be updated in a decade, extend credit card benefit programs, grant those who quit their job to join national service their severance package and apply technical changes to a Holocaust survivor bill.

 

Non-Bills Summary

* Interior Minister Yishai (Shas), Labor and Welfare Minister Kahlon (Likud), Homefront Defense Minister Vilnai (Independence) and Education Minister Sa’ar (Likud) answered urgent queries at the beginning of the session.

* Finance Committee Chairman Shama presented the request of the joint subcommittee of the Finance and the Education, Culture and Sport Committees to split a bill into two. Seven MKs spoke to give their positions on the splitting of the bill. The bill was split after a 44-25 vote.

 

Bills Summary

Amendment to the Social Security Bill

MK Eichler (U.T.J.) explained his amendment would expand the term “child” for a survivor’s insurance purposes to include children who don’t go to university. He said that in certain cases ultra-orthodox children can’t receive their parents’ insurance if they didn’t go through the Israeli state school system. He stressed that this bill will correct the problem and he has agreed to postpone the vote on the bill for a few weeks in order to gain government support. Shas Faction Manager Jacobson noted that MK Michaeli (Shas) had a similar bill and requested that he be able to present it. Speaker Rivlin denied the request.

Amendment to the Checks without Cover Bill

MK Shemtov (Y.B.) explained her amendment would force the banks to inform a customer who is joining an existing bank account to disclose to the new holder all of the information that is tied to that account.

Deputy Finance Minister Cohen (Shas) expressed government support for the bill.

The bill passed its preliminary reading 32-0 and was sent to the Justice Committee.

Amendment to the State Education Bill

MK Ariel (N.U.) explained his amendment would direct the Education Minister to monitor the price of school textbooks and present him tools to limit the number of updated editions of a textbook every decade.

Education Minister Sa’ar (Likud) praised MK Ariel and expressed government support for the bill. He stated he plans to pass a school book reform that will lower the prices drastically.

The bill passed its preliminary reading 38-0 and was sent to the Education Committee.

Amendment to the Limitations on Consumer Benefit Programs Bill

MK Cabel (Labor) explained his amendment would extend the credit card benefit programs in order to allow more time for people to utilize their stars and points. He added that the amendment would prohibit sales programs that don’t allow reasonable time for the consumer to utilize their rewards.

Industry and Trade Minister Simhon (Independence) expressed government support for the bill.

The bill passed its preliminary reading 28-0 and was sent to the Finance Committee.

Amendment to the Victims of Nazi Persecution Bill

MK Bielski (Kadima) explained his amendment would change the wording of the law that outlines the eligibility for receiving compensation. He said the words would be changed in order to bring justice and have respect for Holocaust survivors in the bill.

Deputy Finance Minister Cohen expressed government support for the bill.

The bill passed its preliminary reading 36-0 and was sent to the Funds Committee.

Amendment to the Severance Pay Bill

MK Shai (Kadima) explained the amendment would enable someone who needs to hand in their resignation due to voluntary service to receive their severance pay. He said that if someone chooses to volunteer for their country they shouldn’t be penalized.

Industry and Trade Minister Simhon expressed government support for the bill.

The bill passed its preliminary reading 46-0 and was sent to the Welfare Committee.

Amendment to the Equal Opportunities Bill

MK Zoabi (Balad) explained her amendment would prohibit the discrimination of those who were not in military service. She slammed those who post on employment advertisements that for jobs such as waitressing army service is a necessary requirement. She went on to blast the Israeli army. She said that the connection between the army and business is wrong and must be abolished. She called on Israelis to boycott any business that requires army experience for a job. She thanked the Arabs, pacifists and the ultra-orthodox for supporting her bill.

Industry and Trade Minister Simhon expressed government opposition to the bill on the grounds that the bill already protects discrimination on the basis of nationality or religion. He said this amendment could limit the implementation of the bill by stressing this one point. He revealed that this will probably be his last term as an MK unless Shas decides to allocate a spot for a secular Jew.

The bill was defeated 4-35.

Amendment to the Press Ordinance Bill 

MK Khenin (Hadash) explained his amendment would revoke certain paragraphs in the Press Ordinance Bill, which has been in place since the British Mandate more than 80 years ago. He said that the Interior ministry would no longer be able to approve licenses for newspapers under the changes and would no longer be allowed to close a newspaper down. He said it would turn Israel into a real democracy that really has a free press. He went on to blast the government for opposing freedom of the press.

Industry and Trade Minister Simhon expressed government opposition to the bill on the grounds that repealing the paragraphs without replacing them with new Israeli laws would harm the checks and balances within Israeli democracy. He said that this government won’t harm democracy by supporting this bill.

MK Khenin said that the Press Ordinance is not democratic and it is the government who is deciding to side with anti-democratic British mandate laws.

The bill was defeated 6-13 with 2 MKs abstaining.

Amendment to the Value Added Tax Bill

MK Sheetrit (Kadima) explained his amendment would eliminate VAT on gasoline tax. He said that a tax on a tax is wrong and must be abolished. He noted that the government could increase one tax without needing to divide the tax between two taxes. He said that he is postponing the vote on the bill in order to gain government support.

Tuesday’s Knesset session lasted three hours. Two bills were discussed and advanced after passing their first readings. The Tuesday session started early because of Hanukah, and the Speaker announced it must end no matter what at 3 PM to enable the Knesset members to make it home in time to light the first Hanukah candle. The bills advanced will provide consumers with a monthly report from the bank of all of their expenses and will raise city taxes in order to increase the municipal security guard force and their authority.

Non-Bills Summary

* 17 MKs spoke during the one minute speech segment that opened the day.

* Hasbara Minister Edelstein (Likud) answered six queries during a question hour.

Bills Summary

 

Amendment to the Consumer Protection Bill

MK Maklev (U.T.J.) explained his amendment would force the banks to send a report to their customers with the details of every ongoing transaction payment. He said that many expenses are monthly expenses and this will help consumers look at all of them on one page. He stated that this bill will help consumers compare their expenses from month to month and from year to year. He noted that the bank will also add to the report if there is an outstanding monthly expense, in order to help the consumer realize what he has not yet paid for, as well as help the consumer realize if a company is still charging for a service that has been cancelled.

MK Majadele (Labor) supported and praised the bill. He said this bill will allow the consumer to view all of his expenses in one place and will lead to him reducing unnecessary consumption. He went on to talk about the gaps between the rich and the poor.

MK Levin (Likud) supported and praised the bill. He said this is the easiest way to introduce consumer responsibility and will ultimately lower the prices in the marketplace. He said the most important part of the bill is that this piece of paper will be now be a source of proof for the consumer towards the companies who wish to take money from him, sometimes unjustly.

The bill passed its first reading 11-0 and was sent to the Finance Committee.

Amendment to the Municipalities Ordinance Bill

Hasbara Minister Edelstein explained the amendment would increase the authority for municipalities’ security guards to maintain public order. He noted that this will replace a series of existing temporary orders that basically say the same exact thing and will make these changes final in the regular law. He noted that the police support this bill, and the changes will take effect January 1.

MK Zeev (Shas) talked about the mob and organized crime. He said that although this bill might be a good one, the government should be focusing on combating the rise of organized crime. He disagreed with the decision that city taxes will be increased in order to meet the budget needs of the bill. He said that this bill could cost the citizens a lot of money.

MK Molla (Kadima) said that this is another indirect tax on the Israeli people and expressed his opposition to all indirect taxes. He insisted that this tax should not fall on the citizens and should instead come from the state budget. He said that although he is against the bill, he will support it because Kadima supports it. Speaker Rivlin asked what the difference is between citizens paying for the service through the state or municipal budget. Molla said that after the social justice protests it is irresponsible to introduce a new tax, even if it is a necessary tax to provide important services.

MK Ben Ari (N.U.) talked about the victims of the Carmel fire. He went on to talk about the crime of illegal immigrants and asked if this bill will solve that problem. He noted that the Tel Aviv police can’t deal with the illegal immigrant crime and he assumed this bill will do nothing to solve that problem. He said despite this, he will support the bill.

MK Sheetrit (Kadima) said this bill is a bad bill. He said that most cities are dealing with a wave of robberies and this bill doesn’t solve that problem. He said that instead the city raises its taxes and burdens its citizens. He called on the government to raise the number of police and to increase its funding.

The bill passed its first reading 6-2 and was sent to the Interior Committee.

MK Sheetrit equated the uprising of the Maccabees against the Greeks as a small nation defeating the United States today. He noted that the Jews who joined the Greeks are gone and it was the descendents of Jews who fought the Greeks that rebuilt Israel over the last century and remain the Jews of today.