Jeremy's Knesset Insider

The Maagar Mohot Poll differs from the Haaretz Dialog poll in a few interesting ways.  Maagar has Likud with 32 mandates compared to Dialog’s 33, but Kadima drops to 25 seats in the Maagar poll, as opposed to 27 in the Dialog one. This means that the difference between Likud and Kadima is seven seats in the Maagar poll, compared to six in the Dialog.  Another difference between the polls is Maagar has Meretz at its current 3 seats, compared to five in the Dialog poll.

I know that Israel is very far from elections with such a stable coalition but I do think it is important to monitor public opinion of the parties which influence many MKs actions.

Maagar Mohot Poll: Right 70 Left 39 Arabs 11

Dr. Aaron Lerner Date 11 June 2010

Telephone poll of a representative sample of 508 adult Israelis (including
Israeli Arabs) carried out by Maagar Mohot Survey Institute
(headed by Professor Yitzchak Katz for Makor Rishon 9-10 June 2010 and
published on 11 June
Statistical error +/- 4.5 percentage points.

If elections held today (expressed in Knesset seats) –
Current Knesset seats in [brackets].
25 [28] Kadima
32 [27] Likud
11 [13] Labor
11 [11] Shas
14 [15] Yisrael Beiteinu
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah
03 [03] Meretz
03 [03] Jewish Home
04 [04] Nat’l Union
11 [11] Arab parties

The poll taken last week shows that if the elections were held today the Likud would gain six seats and Kadima would lose one. The poll also showed that Liberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu would stay at 15.  Labor would fall to become the fifth biggest party with eight seats, compared to Shas who would lose a seat but stay in double digits with ten.

Haaretz’s Dialog polls are slanted towards the left. An example of which was predicting two days before the 2009 election that Meretz would receive seven seats, compared with the three they would actually receive.  My thoughts on this poll is that the support for the right wing block may be even higher.

Haaretz-Dialog survey of 500 Israelis (including Israeli Arabs) 8 June 2010.
Survey error +/- 4.3 percentage points. Published on 11 June.

If elections held today (expressed in Knesset seats) –
Current Knesset seats in [brackets].
33 [27] Likud
27 [28] Kadima
15 [15] Yisrael Beiteinu
10 [11] Shas
08 [13] Labor
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah
05 [03] Meretz
03 [04] Nat’l Union
03 [03] Jewish Home
10 [11] Arab parties