GeoCartography conducted a poll of 500 Israelis with an error rate of 4.2% for Israeli radio 103 FM that was broadcast on Jan 22 2014.
They also conducted a scenario poll where Likud and Yisrael Beitenu ran as two separate parties.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
40 [31] Likud Beitenu
12 [15] Labor
12 [11] Shas
11 [12] Bayit Yehudi
10 [06] Meretz
09 [19] Yesh Atid
06 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
03 [06] Movement
03 [02] Kadima
03 [00] Am Shalem
11 [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al and Balad
72 [61] Right-Religious
48 [59] Center-Left-Arab
Knesset Jeremy Analysis: Right-Religious block is at 72. Before anyone dismisses that as a crazy number, I’ll point out that yesterday’s Channel 1 poll has the block at 67 seats.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
39 [20] Likud
16 [11] Yisrael Beitenu
11 [15] Labor
10 [11] Shas
10 [19] Yesh Atid
08 [06] Meretz
07 [12] Bayit Yehudi
04 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
02 [06] Movement
02 [02] Kadima
00 [00] Am Shalem
11 [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al and Balad
76 [61] Right-Religious
44 [59] Center-Left-Arab
Knesset Jeremy Analysis: In this scenario poll, Likud+Yisrael Beitenu+Bayit Yehudi come out to 62 seats. Right-Religious block with Shas+UTJ come out to 76, an increase of four seats from the above poll.
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
should one take these polls seriously? Really? These numbers are like magic for the right and the settlement movement – why does Bayit Yehudi that bad 11 or then 7!!!?
and with a higher threshold one will see 15-16 seats reorganized (in the second alternative one wonders if UTJ would pass). How would the numbers the look?? who knows.
and in both cases Livni would be out
I think all of the numbers fall into the 4.2% error rate.
I’d have to see a couple of more polls like this before I fully believe it. There definitely seems to be a trend right/religious, although it is usually 2 or 3 extra seats over the current 61. Am Shallem isn’t even running as an independent party. It’s like the poll yesterday with Otzma. I don’t think Otzma even exists anymore. I do buy that Yesh Atid is in trouble. Every poll indicates that Yest Atid is in for a major loss of seats. This makes sense as the left-wing voters move towards explicitly left-wing parties like Meretz and the center-right voters go back to Likud and Yisrael Beitenu.
Regarding the second poll: I remember reading less than a month ago that Likud and Yisrael Beitenu have decided to run separately in the next election but have not announced it yet because they don’t want to undercut the current government. Running separately seems like a good way for Bibi and Lieberman to undercut Yesh Atid and Bayit Yehudi. If they do run separately, Bennett better have some plan. Being the 7th largest party isn’t going to give him any influence over the government. In fact, Netenyahu would not even have to include Bayit Yehudi in the government. He would have numerous coalition options. Perhaps Bennett should start thinking about an alliance/merger with Yisrael Beitenu… they practically have the same name already and most of Yisrael Beitenu’s rank-and-file (like Shamir) have a very similar ideology to Bayit Yehudi.
Any theories for this nationalist surge? Could it be related to Ya’alon saying what everyone is thinking about peace talks?
Liberman said he is dreaming of a Likud-Yisrael Beitenu-Bayit Yehudi merger. I think he is the only one out of the three that wants that.
speaking of good ideas for Bennett; a good idea would be to use the coming rebellion in Likud to get the “rebels” to join Bennett under his leadership (or shared with Danon or someone like that) and this should probably convince most of Yisrael Beiteinu to join this new entity (otherwise they are seen as pro-2-states). This then should force guys like Yaalon etc to rethink their values, Likud-values or “leftist”-values. And then Bibi and Lieberman are either out or accept Bennett’s leadership (and Danon/hotovely etc.). The latter one if they feel like “likudniks” and understand to be true to Likud-values.
I also think that Am Shalem and Otzma are either out or integreted into bigger parties.
about the nationalist surge:
1. possible that centrist voters want to encourage Netanyahu to write under “any” peace agreement and for that reason supports Likud (the moderate part)
2. possible that right-wingers from Bayit Yehudi, hareidi parties want to support the Likud nationalists and therefore votes Likud/Yisrael Beiteinu
I would love to see the right-wing of Likud, with or without Yisrael Beitenu, forming an alliance with Bayit Yehudi. But it wont happened because Bennet, Dannon and Lieberman want the same thing : being the head of the big right-wing party.
I dont think Lieberman and Bennet have the same positions anyway. On civil issues they dont, and Lieberman is pro-pal state (at making lip-service to it).